Member Info for Simms45

As i understand public consultation Is done for feeder pits and was positive and we should now get permit rns within 2-3 weeks so loading up pre announcement is what most are doing and simply recognising Rio Tinto language is pretty clear as to plans. The recent RNS re-affirmed to the market that the big mine build is now not the only plan in town but to get smaller project up and toll mining in place that will help get us back to barely acceptable market cap of 50p+ and probably more. For me once feeder pits are signed off further releases will come steadily. can only see upside for coming months and we must be closing in on the final land purchases. Again that will derisk further and then not many curve balls in the way for the time being.

That is a good point but we also forget Nicaraguan Govt who want a mine and jobs so that might not work out politically. i have had sone experience of takeover offers but almost all i have been on receiving end is 30% so we can assume directors will not sell lower than £1 at the very bottom price so the game is simply get closer to the price. No one has ever that i am aware of paid 3x for a company as they might get fired at the annual shareholder meeting. Rio and Calibre need Condor to get up to a decent level so Rio can realistically take a closer look.

Absolutely. Rio is looking for assets and must have an interest in the medium term for Condor but there is a lot of distance to go before anything is possible, most importantly the share price. 50% of company is held by about 6 people who are not even going go entertain even £1 a share. As of today we are way off that so Rio/Calibre to help oil the wheels have much to gain from toll refining deal, not least cashflow for Calibre but a deal should help Condor get closer to the goldilocks price range towards £1 where Condor will be a play and then its a game of price and Rio have the resources without even batting an eyelid. Someone made the point Rio Tinto made £20m in 14 hours based on current £20bn profit a year so money is not really the issue here but Rio can only make something like a 30% premium or its hard to explain to shareholders. So really everyone wins from a Calibre toll deal. Lets also not forget Calibre get a tasty 10% finder fee if Rio buy Calibre at some point down the road so they also get benefit from a higher price. Anyway lets see but RNS today said it all really once you think why this release was worded and put out this way. Anyway lets get to 40p first and not look back.

Well we are back to where we were last thursday so what we need to do is get over this frustrating 30p resistance level and stay there consistently. Certainly all ducks are readying themselves for the lineup but when proactive investor is making fair value comparison to peers at £1.70+ and Rio Tinto making an entrance coupled with the share moving 20% on small stock movements we know the supply is limited and we can easily pop to 40p without much effort. Even at these prices most shareholders will still be well under water. my expectation is a lot is drafted and ready to go subject to those permits and a less shabby share price where any raise will not be so dilutive. There is gold in them hills and if we ever get to 5m ounzes thats about $8bn gross at $1600 an ounze.

Yes certainly the Rio Tinto arrival has changed the game in Nicaragua and sent a wave of confidence through the market. I make it that Condor was riding around 50p when political unrest started so i hope this together with some positive news can push us back to pre political unrest days. Supply is clearly thin on the ground so Condor can move in both ways very sharpish as we know. As long as progress is being made this stock is largely back into ascendency mode. Rio Tinto move into Nicaragua is great news as Rio will be looking for big concessions ready to rumble as for Rio Tinto nothing less is worth their effort. Interesting times ahead and probably not that far away.

Not sure we can read anything into TSX as there is virtually no trading activity on that exchange. Frankly whoever is the PR company for Condor in Canada should be reviewed as it must cost a bit to keep on this exchange but there appears to be little interest so far. some news might help and we must be days or weeks from permitting of pits and my guess this will start Some momentum.

Regardless of who it is with Toll mining has been cited by MC as on the cards and largely required to raise company value and move from exploration to quasi production and access a whole different level of finance interest. Can Toll mining really be so hard? More a question of trying to do a deal with the most desirable option and Calibre i understand has the scale, while other options are perhaps smaller scale. For me it is all too a coincidence Calibre left some kit ready but not stated the reason. At current $1600 price it does open options to trucking almost anywhere in Nicaragua. However without land purchased and feeder pit permission he cant announce or do anything really. we are led to believe pits will be signed off before the end of the month so that will be one issue resolved. then if he has focused most attention on getting the land that really matters he has had at least 6 months to get quotes from across Nicaragua and specifically through Nicaraguan Mining to line up the options. Toll mining contract in my view should be easy bit as its win-win.

as we saw a few days ago the shares are tightly held by long-term investors so small buys and sells moves the price in both ways dramatically. If, as i believe the share dump from the IFC and the other investment fund that went bust last year temporarily caused the stock to be depressed and recent price swings on low levels of stock does indicate that probably a lot of that stock has now found its way into the group of investors who are targeting a far higher share price. It only seems logical that as positive news comes on regarding feeder pits and other news after this we should get back to more realistic levels. today the share price is laughably low but without momentum and news the market is the market. Those entering before Feeder pit news will probably do well in hindsight as there seems a lot of war gaming has been carried out and MC has many options for different scenarios. However if he does rapidly start ticking some boxes then the share price will rise rapidly to a level where he might just be able to go for a decent mine operation and limit dilution. However it will all happen if he can secure the next few phases of the project (feeder pits / land purchases / toll refining) and the rest will largely take care of itself and cashflow will start doing the talking.

Couldn’t have written this report any better myself. John Cornfield must be very close as he has put together a comprehensive and balanced view of probable ways forward, all of which have been discussed here but nice to see a balanced and comprehensive view.

While not the RNS we would have all wanted i noted nothing was said about the feeder pits and that might be good news very shortly. While i agree the rns was a little lacklustre everything discussed was a step forward. There are no setbacks so to speak. With barely 200k of shares moving price down that is little more than £40k so it shows how thin the market is both up and down. As i have said before landowners will hold out for as long as possible and it will all get winded up when all other formalities have taken place. there are still procedural steps needed but land acquisitions will be resolved once local government decide the mine cannot be held up and longer. However today other details are outstanding so the government are probably hoping MC can get to the bottom of these and once all other procedural steps are completed i suspect the government will enact some laws to close deals. we have to remember all of local issues are probably about money as we are talking about land that has no value to landowners as they dont own the mineral rights. All they can use land for is illegal mining that the government could put an end to if they wanted or pitching a tent. The land we are talking about has no other value. If the land was mine of course you hold out as long as possible and then fold once the price has reached the highest before governments and locals call you in. slowly but I would add surely we are getting somewhere.

Once we have feeder pit conclusion, hopefully positive news in the coming short-term, these hold the highest concentration of gold ore so is the best ore for any chance of toll refining or trucking to xyz plant. That for me is a key catalyst for confidence. Regardless Randy Martin is on board presumably to put together a range of plans snd to access his contacts. I am pretty sure MC is leaving no stone unturned to get some early revenue as that is his plan. As to Calibre they are losing millions but on a path to recovery and they have seen a 50% rise in their stock on the back of gold prices rising but i still think the operational news of leaving a mill dormant is of interest. Calibre are business people and that is bad news for them unless they get it working again soon. Anyway MC is deep into all of this and of course it would be silly to hand over the reins at this juncture. That would lead to a massive loss of confidence and shock to the share price, can be any more depressed! . Ross Beaty was a enthusiastic buyer of stock at 40p many many years ago and above and IFC (bless their socks) pumped in at 90p a share. you cant knock MC for very impressively getting around £60m of cash in the door. That is not easy to do. So much could happen over next few months in concrete news that i see far more upside than downside. I think a lot of things will quickly happen once the feeder pits are confirmed as “decision” time is nearing but MC cannot pursue them until this small matter and that of closing land deals. We must be tantilisingly close in my view. There is cash sloshing around the gold miners and as soon as they smell gold at Condor i am sure many would be interested in some deal to help bring to fruition. wishful thinking maybe but so far, ever so slowly, things are happening. Just wish it would be a little quicker. sit back and enjoy the calm as i think that will change.

In fairness to MC any CEO of a gold explorer going into production still would have the same challenges. We need to complete purchase of all land, we need ro wait on Nicaraguan govt to sign off extra feeder pits. Once those two are signed off the company moves forward. There were be a clear path to toll refining, there will be a derisk to those willing to pony up cadh for mine build. At the moment we are relying on 3rd parties. Once we get past this reliance it is just a process that MC is probably very energetically eager to deliver on. We have over 40%+ ownership by Very tight group of shareholders many in from a long time ago ponying up £60m to date into the project so well into the red, not to mention opportunity cost of tying up £60m for 8 years. These investors would only consider a deal where that was respected and if it came along maybe its an option but these shareholders do not need to sell at a big loss. They are hardly going to lay out the table and serve the food only for someone to come along and eat the delights. once feeder pits and toll refining are further forward i would expect us to be a good deal north of where we are today. if we get to 40p then raising finance and dilution is probably more pallarable. However dilution is only a bad thing when companies need it to cover debts or cover bad business. We are looking to cash to create a mine that is lookingbat a 5m ounze gold play. That is $7.5bn of gold so a mine of $120 to access that sort of number is a pretty good investment when AISC is $750. Basically 50% of above figure is potential cashflow over 20-30 years of mine life. i would be happy to dilute to make that happen frankly because we are unlocking a possible golden goose.

Always good to check down the back of the sofa to see what else you can find. One thing we are not short of is concessions as we are drowning in them so maybe we could sell off other non core concessions but fantastic news to get some cash in and focus on the main prize. looking forward to 2020.

Thanks for information about expected permit timelines. i will put the optimist back in the box and i guess here's looking forward to a transformational 2020 :)

If i am not mistaken the 20 days for questions from the ministry are officially up today? If we get the feeder pits permitted at very high grade then we can hope MC has gone someway to agree the fabled toll refining deal with Calibre or possibly someone else. These high grade feeder pits make it more economic to truck to Calibres mill, kindly left dormant by Calibre in recent news almost waiting for Condor to line up its ducks. Any toll deal would transform Condor onto a different trajectory and investors might see something back from the £60m+ invested over the last 10 years. When MC spoke of a transformational year to me that was based on his sense that B2Gold were going to agree a toll deal given the testing already done on the ore, only for Calibre to come out of the woodwork and pay top dollar for what is essentially a poor performing mine.This realistically set MCs plans back at least 6 months while that deal went through. You also have to remember that MC has not removed his toll refining idea from his deck, rather he has put it more prominently and from a business sense it is win-win for Calibre and Condor just when Calibre will be starting to pay down very high interest costs on their borrowing so cash will be king and maximising utilisation of their resources. At the same time we can hope that MC has been treking the Nicaraguan outback with suitcases of cash and getting those last land deals over the line. That must be getting very close. Subject to what happens we could get some good christmas news for once.

Best interview i have heard of all those he has made. There is definitely a spring in his step and he made clear his aversion to share dilution. There is a lot less risk and it is now more process driven to tick boxes. The land acquisition is not plain sailing and how can it be if your negotiating with so many people in that part of the world where life changing amounts of cash are at stake but it will happen because the government will be just as keen to create new jobs and compulsory purchase is a lot worse than market prices. i am sure some land owners have absurd valuations but who can blame them for trying up until the point the local mayor comes knocking, after seeing this video ( if i was not already up to my gills in Condor) i would buy a lot more. Within 20 days we should get feeder pit signoff so a mall brucie bonus before zmas. I think about 30-60 days later we should then have a toll refining deal as it seems logical unless Calibre want to sweat Condor in hope of making a play at lowball offer (which will not happen for anything less than £1). If we get that toll deal financing 30-40m (As per video) that will be a far easier level to borrow with little dilution. I can see pretty clearly how i think this will play out.

Yes. I meant without. I appreciate we have the main pit but as i understand it is the feeder pits that have the higher grade so making the trucking costs worthwhile.

Also as i understand a toll deal is not really possible with the permits for the feeder pits so MC has got to crack on and make sure that is a priority and close land acquisition deals. He needs to just sit on these two tasks until they are done.

Land acquisition never runs smooth if your dealing with multiple parties and the legal process is probably slow to check title as a lot of land i suspect is quite grey on that front and who actually owns it as relatively large amounts of money are changing hands. normally local pressure and money ultimately talk but there is something called compulsory purchase and that is normally well below the offer price and that normally closes the deal. The british ambassador involvement is normally a good sign of progress. I dont suspect Local mjaor/govt will let a few people hold out for more money over getting local people jobs for long and every issue has always been about money as far as i can see.

looks that B2Gold have washed their hands of Nicaragua asset. lets see how things unfold over the coming months as Calibre are going to be hell bent on cashflow having bought a loss making mine. They must have a few tricks up their sleeve and one of those could fall into the hands of Condor. Regardless i am hopeful the land purchases are close to being over the line and Nicaragua Mining who recently took a large stake will be lining up some plans to toll mine and/or develop the mine. Slowly but surely.

B2Gold Completes the Sale of Nicaragua Assets to Calibre Mining Corp.
VANCOUVER, Oct. 15, 2019 /CNW/ - B2Gold Corp. (TSX: BTO, NYSE AMERICAN: BTG, NSX: B2G) ("B2Gold" or the "Company") announces today that it has completed the sale of El Limon and La Libertad Gold Mines, the Pavon Gold Project and additional mineral concessions in Nicaragua (collectively, the "Nicaragua Assets") to Calibre Mining Corp. ("Calibre") for aggregate consideration of US$100 million (the "Transaction"), subject to adjustment for working capital under the share purchase agreement for the Transaction. Pursuant to the terms of the Transaction, B2Gold received on closing an aggregate of 87,986,666 common shares of Calibre ("Calibre Shares"), representing approximately 28.35% of the issued and outstanding Calibre Shares on closing, US$40 million in cash, a US$10 million convertible debenture (the "Debenture"), and will receive an additional cash payment of US$10 million on October 15, 2020 (the "Additional Payment") (which Additional Payment may at B2Gold's option be settled in Calibre Shares based on the five-day volume weighted average price of Calibre Shares at the time of such payment and provided it does not result in B2Gold holding over 31% of the issued and outstanding Calibre Shares). The principal amount owing under the Debenture will bear interest at 2% and will be payable in cash on October 15, 2021, and is convertible at a rate of CDN$0.75 per Calibre Share. The Debenture will be a direct, unsecured obligation of Calibre, ranking equally with all other existing and future unsecured indebtedness of Calibre and will be a non-voting security.
"We are pleased to join forces with Calibre in Nicaragua to continue our legacy of ten years of responsible exploration, development and gold production. We are pleased to become Calibre's largest shareholder and through our roles on their Advisory Board and Board of Directors, we look forward to assisting Calibre's experienced executive team and the combined B2Gold/Calibre management team in Nicaragua," said Clive Johnson, B2Gold's President and Chief Executive Officer.