Member Info for Simms45

What i really want to see from MC is a 3-5 year forecast as that would probably make a massive difference. Oddly i dont understand why it is not available as most costs and revenues are known based on estimated gold price.

So AAZ have only 350k reserves of god left and 1 gram per tonne. That is not even on the same page but its a good producing mine but due to its small size and high overheads not really making so much profit.

What is the predicted life of the mine at AAZ? When you do a discounted cashflow valuation its important to know the ounzes in the ground so you can work out the life of the mine. Issue with B2Gold is both their mines are at the end of reserves so have no value left. While we are not there yet if we get fo 5m ounze Condor lifetime will be a good 10-20 years, albeit Condor are only permitted for 600k at the moment but that is a technicality of government to have a little leverage later on if Condor failed to employ locals or there are other issues.

In one of MCs last calls he talked about $110m capex. However its pretty clear he has his eyes on buying the mine or just the kit from B2Gold and shipping down the road. Many permutations but i suspect there is a deal being cooked up yo give B2Gold a stake in Condor alongside some agreement. Given B2Gold have written off the Nocaraguan mine to 0 value and put aside $30m for environment costs its pretty clear that B2Gold shareholders will only be too happy to turn their loss making mine into something quite different. As much as B2gold has a strong hand, B2gold shareholders will also be more than happy to go for a win-win deal. I suspect the conversation about the deal is complex given so many options of how Condor and B2Gold decide to go forward but i simply cant see something not happening and i even think egos will not get in the way. I dont know the personalities of B2Gold and if they have a deep issue with MC or RB etc but given MC mentioned a great deal of kissing and making up had happened i hope that is not an issue. I think MC is holding out on that deal coming together as i suspect he probably has finance options but clearly a deal with B2Gold changes everything as it brings cashflow early and means Capex could be almost zero if B2Gold either use all toll money to pay down the mine or more likely be part of some equity in Condor, if B2Gold cannot find a number that interests MC. I suspect given $50m has been spent on Nicargua from inception that it will need to be a number double that in valuation but given The billionaire investors i expect them to hold back MC on lowball offer. RB has cash to do the whole mine himself and given potentially this is a 5m ouze district that is $5.5 bn gold in the ground for the lucky winner and will keep some company going on for the next 20 years. Somehow even $150m sounds pitifully low but that is 10x from todays valuation. It just depends on whether MC can prove to B2Gold he does not actually need them but its so obviously compelling both see it that way.

I also thought it was odd. He is under confidentiality agreement but somehow the metalurgical results were not? You can imagine that if the NDA did not cover that disclosure what is the confidentiality agreement. The question asked was pretty basic asking about trucking ore to B2Gold and he could have simply answered with what information he knew already about feasibility. Obviously since he has shared that is an aim of his talking about trucking ore was not really a big deal. MC might have misunderstood question but slipping in the NDA was a little odd. I am pretty sure all options of 2 Gold involvement are being discussed. Its almost impossible for that not to be the case. My suspicion is toll agreement comes with strings attached that are being worked for. Its almost obvious that if B2Gold are staying in Nicaragua La India is part of that.

The presentation was great in what MC said and is very credible and professional. i think the last question of the day was most interesting after someone asked about the trucking idea to B2Gold mines and MC said he could not speak about that as he is under confidentiality agreement. However he did try to rephrase it but plenty of reading between the lines. That is a pretty important clarification that things are heating up on the B2Gold front and could be across a number of options in all honesty as it makes sense for toll refining deal to happen, it makes sense for B2Gold to size up Condor, it makes sense for Condor to buy the equipment if the mines are closing. There are many permutations and i suspect it is going to take a little longer to find the chosen road as i can see B2Gold taking a strategic interest although in the accounts PWC who audit B2Gold have written down the mine value so anything extra is a bonus for B2Gold. Certainly B2Gold need to turn their loss making mine around and this deal would achieve that very quickly. I think there is a good month or more before any update on B2Gold in my view and i am not expecting it any time very soon but i suspect it will be one road that will the positive.

Well i am sure various people have done fag packet or more comprehensive calculations but if the AISC is below $700 and gold is currently $1300 (and likely to rise) and with new pits we can extract 120k ounzes per annum. The maths is simple. 10 bags return including dividends from current silly £14m valuation is doable even in 3 years of mine production with dividends and some big margins for error built in. Expectation is that once MC gets to 5m ounze district play and he is permitted to extract more then you can see that multiple rising. Key is getting toll and getting the mine live, ideally buying B2Gold kit. Need to keep hold of the key bits of information. Sure its no easy task at all but its never been more in sight and over next few months all will be revealed hopefully.

I could not see the stream either but recognised the slide deck :) Amazingly i accidentally downloaded a slide deck from 2013 and its the same template with similar named slides, just different information. One of the purposes of our CEO attending these events is to inspure new pis as Mr Market is very simply a supply and demand equation and the best way to raise a price is to increase demand or make sure stock lives with the hodl crowd. I note today after MC speaking we had 3 sells and a few orders. If i had time to look at other presenters and cross check latent demand for stock buying i suspect there are a few that capture the imagination. Not banging on about this but MC has doing the walk but has to nail his talk to inspire more to join up or otherwise attending these events is a costly exercise in high fiving other gold entrepreneurs. Such a small change but the outcome would almost certainly be immediate and for more news outlets to follow Condor as Condor is totally hidden from view. On this bulletin board there is probably a group of holders that might own 10-20% of the company in aggregate.

Great to get confirmation finally and that forced seller is gone with 5% changing hands. Onwards and upwards.

It goes without saying that myself and probably a lot of pis are invested and contining to invest because of the quality of the top management and that they have a good deal of skin in the game. I would say most explorers in oil or whatever resource tend to build up the opportunity and then sell this on to the bigger fish, hence MC pushing for the 5m ounze district as that brings Condor into orbit for buyout. Certainly MC has multiple plans and that is also a big plus as the clear one for me today is toll refining, which will re-rate the stock, and then ultimately to buy out B2Gold equipment and ship with a raise of investment at a share price worthy of that raise. That to me is a perfect storm and it will all kick off with the next few RNSs i hope. Obviously at the same time the sooner he gets to a bigger resource district that gives also the other chance of a takeover being also part of the story, maybe B2Gold going in reverse if they decide to not exit Nicaragua and double down. I am very thank-full that MC is ploughing on regardless and getting to the finish line one way or another as having multiple options always available is better than a management team who have no skin on the game and just working out how they can maximise their bonus or twiddling their thumbs. I have learnt the hard way on the latter but i was only saying that given shareholders are paying indirectly for MC to go to all these gold events that he should present the best case and a little money spent on how your present that data has big repercussions. i work closely with many tech companies raising early financing and there is a fine line between getting a following and not and one of those is telling a compelling story and MC has a great one to tell and i think could tell it better with a reduced set of slides to let him adlib a little and get passionate but also ensure those looking at the slides take away the best bits. when he is on TV he is more compelling than standing in front of his slide deck. anyway onwards and upwards and hopefully word will get out soon just how close Condor are to a major re-rate and find new investors. Gold is very much back in every governments sights around the world to i am expecting a good few years for the gold price.

I am quietly confident, as MC said, we are in a transformational year. Whatever way you look at it the next few months should realise a lot of value one way or another. I distinct possibility is that B2Gold reverse its loss making mine into La India and they have all the cash and strategy to do that. however the price would need to be a multiple if where it is today. The toll deal might be taking longer simply because there are many extra discussions going on around the idea of Condor buying B2Golds Nicaraguan mine that is about to be closed where we can literally buy all the equipment and ship down the road. So many ducks are lining up that i sense if a sensible toll deal is agreed (i can see why as MC has already said the B2Gold mines are massively under capacity so if real cashflow is generated this share will rocket to a correct multiple. Its a massive difference. Given the £40m of losses or thereabouts built up over the years we have a nice way to not pay any corporation tax for sometime and that loss alone has a greater value than the marketcap today for B2Gold. My only point is that MC could update his slides to sell the sizzle and not the sausage and a bit of design attention can really change perceptions.

Im just a little dissapointed that after these presentations there is almost no increase in share purchases. He pushed hard in toronto and the volume of Condor is still tiny there. I just feel his deck is therefore not creating the sizzle to get investors excited and i feel he can make some adjustments and start to pick up a bigger following. Just an observation. A lot of detail is in the presentation but it does not seem to translate. The company is tiny at only £15m valuation so even small buyers can have a big impact. Onwards to toll deal as that seems to be now the critical news. if that comes in at a healthy return i suspect we will be well on target to revisit 30-40p.

i think MC should invest a few quid getting a designer in to up his slide deck game. From what i can see his slide deck has been the same for a year and he has only tacked on an extra slide and a little bland. When he does these presentations we should see some new investors come aboard as they are not cheap to attend but i cant say i see this happening after his presentation. if he is prepared to spend £1000s attending spending a lot less of upping his pitch deck is a no brainer. Is there something i am missing as the fundamentals are really strong on all fronts and perhaps only a toll agreement will really set the fire alight to make it real. I think he needs to start to sound the charge and rather than selling the sausage he should sell the sizzle. Gold is back in vogue and we should be capitalising on that. Anyway hopefully the Condor faithful have been able to average down a little while the forced sellers were around. Still kicking myself for not taking more at 17.35p a few weeks back but helped to bring my average down a good few points thankfully.

i understand that these investors are long-term and will wait it out. i am more sizing up the classic of these sort of characters being part of a massively dilutive rights issue carving up the spoils amongst themselves and nudging the pis out of the way. i strongly believe that they will not but seen it before that come the day of cashflow pis get diluted to kingdom come. Am confident that a combination of the tol deal, then some debt and a bit of extra investment will happen but hopefully at a share price north of 40p. it massively benefits the likes of RB to keep share price low and fund £10m at current valuation.

Its comforting to know that Ross Beaty and Sprott all bought in at 40p a share back in 2016 so they are well under water at the moment and their warrants expired so they should be ready to re-invest when the time comes to bring this mine to fruition and to get back some of their investment. Roll on some news that i hope will be transformational as i think all of Condor's investors are now getting itchy feet to see some return.

Thinking again about his choice of words “due dilligence” and request to share results that would normally only mean something else quite different for a company to be checking the grades. Hopefully any extra rns are held back to allow some extra loading come the the 5th.

Yes. I totally agree Munchbox. happy to play the waiting game for a while longer if it means the best outcome. It is also clear MC is not wanting to dilute too much as it will just make his stake and all his option targets far harder to reach and his only real payday is dividends and options and eventual sale. He wants to fund this as far as possible so he can max this out. This is one reason for my continued investment as i do see MC aligned with PIs and given is military background i think his honour is quite important so he will not be planning some massively anti-PI strategy like too many other companies sadly out there, at least i hope not. if we get a RNS saying that MC and team have bought £20m shares at bottom basement prices i will eat my words but i sense MCs pockets are not so deep to do that and JM and WB have probably got enough for now.

This would be amazing news if Condor could just buy all the old equipment from B2Gold when La Libertad closes in a year or so time. La Libertad is massively loss making using very poor Ore so B2Gold must be desperately also looking at options to close or buy La India in the same way as MC is looking the other way. B2Gold have already essentially written off the whole infrastructure of La Libertad in their accounts and they must be keen to just focus on the Mali mine where they are making a fortune. Potentially Condor buying the equipment could save B2Gold a whole heap of costs. There is a massive win-win here and i think the more complex question is actually do B2Gold move out of Nicaragua or do they buy Condor as that is really the only choice. I suspect the former because B2Gold have plenty of profits elsewhere. This could turn a $110m expense into a 10s of millions expense and because it is all in Nicaragua there will be no delay with imports. This would be a load up job and down the highway to La India. I am really like the sound of MCs post. For me this is now just a waiting game for a toll mining deal and you can easily see MC just using all the profits to pay down the kit cost for La India. I think MC has to make La India the ultimate focus for local jobs so he will have to move the kit to this location.This is definitely a ducks lining up scenario and i think MC is itching to seal the deal and get this mine working. This could get the mine operational sooner as well. Exciting email from MC on many levels.

Odd the news has not hit the rns. Just sent direct as email from condor.

There is still a seller lurking i think as no other reason for narrow spread and ability to buy large volumes. I remember un thevpast when 20000 could not be fulfilled.

still i will not be complaining if still at these levels after april 5th for an isa topup.

Now this is confirmed it is almost just a waiting game and potentially if we are producer by end of year this stock should rerate by a good margin. Proof is in the pudding though.

Odd the news has not hit the rns. Just sent direct as email from condor.

There is still a seller lurking i think as no other reason for narrow spread and ability to buy large volumes. I remember un thevpast when 20000 could not be fulfilled.

still i will not be complaining if still at these levels after april 5th for an isa topup.

Now this is confirmed it is almost just a waiting game and potentially if we are producer by end of year this stock should rerate by a good margin. Proof is in the pudding though.