Member Info for Simms45

Thank-you for the abridged version. when i looked at this many years ago j concluded it will probably happen when a company offers a pay as you go model that Windar is viewing. The downside is the need for deeper pockets to front the investment and get the cash in from customers ongoing so its going to be all about the management executing that and probably how they finance that model. Bringing cost down, as they are trying, is key to that so they look to be approaching it well. Its odd they have mostly south east asia exposure and less Europe from what i can see. For me Windar is all about market timing and they are probably at the start of adoption more widely if their model can work.

Just came on my radar, so to speak, as i had some historic interest in Lidar and did not know there was a company on the LSE exactly in this space doing something i think is potentially great. There is only going to be more wind turbines globally and most are installed at over-optimistic energy forecasts so anything to raise efficiency by a few % gets my vote of confidence. The company seems to have had a rocky path that might need a little more investigation as to the quality of the management team to execute as i think Lidar sold well has a great opportunity so be interested to hear anyone who has some key points why sales dropped 50% last year as that tends to shine a light on management making bad decisions or technology with some growing pains. Will be hopefully reviewing my portfolio in green stocks and this looks promising.

Copper is on a tear and nearly doubled in 12 months and we are sitting on a vast resource that has barely been poked. Harry has talked of many sisters of Hawiah and that tells a story of where this is going and with Artan this is a certainty to go into production as soon as they can. I liked Harry mentioning the word "forceful" in relation to Artan pushing this forward so we have a seriously vertical trajectory once shareholders move on from TK, possibly as soon as a month from now. The exciting news from the webinar is he has pressed the button on a PFS as there is already more than copper to work with. He also mentioned grades are getting better and better and frankly they were already drawdropping compared to other operating copper mines. Kefi share price has Hawiah valued at 0 because of the existential focus on TK. If Hawiah was spun out into another vehicle that alone would probably have more value than Kefi today because there is limited risk to that project. i am looking forward to the day we look past TK financing as Hawiah is the mother of all loads that is going to help propel Kefi to considerable heights.

Harry went into specifics on the webinar and its clear the level of detail supports the narrative. He specifically spoke of several RNS in May and the first of those could well trigger the start of the long overdue re-rate up to June AGM. Its fairly clear the timing now is linked to Ethiopian elections so the extra push from government should well make this happen, given the government are the main shareholder of the bank lending the money and partners onboard this project will probably benefit from access to future projects. Very exciting times for shareholders just on TK alone. Once TK is over the line we know Hawiah is far bigger than TK and Harry is very confident on call out 34% is worth more than our 75% of TK and so confident they are already working on a PFS which tells you just how confident they are and they have barely scratched Hawiah resource. Its likely to be massive from what has been done to date. Subject to TK shareholders are in for a very big return over next few years.

Looks that a lot of the steps to financing are complete based on the lates presentation that updates on many steps. Does feel now we are close and a key RNS will drop sometime in May. I think we will see some much stronger days in the leadup as according to presentation we are only at 14% of the current NPV ao imagine what it will be once we know more about Hawiah and you can sense a 10x opportunity over the next 5 years. VGLA
https://www.kefi-minerals.com/files/presentations/kefi-corporate-pres-27april_2021.pdf

Certainly small positive step forwards as any news is helpful to stakeholders but shame wording is more internal than explaining key USPs of their approach and excludes information on project valuation but can assume this was signed last year. 40 projects signed, we now know 3 i think. Room for a lot of improvement. lets hope they release more commercial news and strategic partnerships.

I would greatly like to see someone like Richard Bennett take the reigns and open up the communication channels or even as an interim Chairman or something. i am sure he would enjoy quarterly updates with numerous commentators as there is simply so much to talk about but he does now appear to have found other work. Normally companies are scraping around for any news but it is simply everywhere with CNE but current CEO who appears to be a hermit is never seen or heard of and creates huge suspicion only compounded by missing 2 deadlines for accounts and suspension of dubious advisor payments. The company massively suffers from this whether it is lost sales or retention of staff, due to terrible undervalued shareprice affecting options, or simply partners and investors simply not believing the company valuation. If the top team are cleared of dodgy deals (frankly it looks obvious there is something fishy but i am sure they can somehow let it slide) then they should be retained to operate the business that they clearly do well but bring in a seasoned Gung Ho CEO who can start to turn this into a proper company that has value starting at £100m and heading for £1bn over the next 5 years. It is possible and really its the current CEO and Chairman that is holding the companies growth back who thinks it is their private business and probably ignores international sales enquiries and looks after themselves and their close associates. I am still suspicious of these "impairment charges" as they could easily be connected to dubious activity but if the CEO wants everyone to let this all slide he needs to announce a £2m dividend from the £25m equity, announce a £1m share buy back, and bring in some clout to give us the communication this company is crying out for. Anything less and i think the CEO might well find himself removed and possibly in a lot more trouble than he would like to be. The option i hope is very obvious to the BOD.

Its a huge vote of confidence and with Biden doubling down on climate change yesterday and Eqtec showing the US the way to create net zero energy from waste surely we can expect to see dozens more orders coming our way in the near future. Still cannot see any end to the exponential demand curve and the only real pinch points today are partners and assist with logistics and financial close. If Eqtec can find that big swinging financial partner and close more partners we can continue to grow exponentially. if we doubled order book in 6 months on projects Eqtec could properly review imagine what is possible when you crank up the partners and financial partners. Going to be an incredible year imo.

Certainly sounds positive. it is odd they have 1750 acres of cassava planted but no Ethanol plant to process it as crops normally can be harvested every 9 months so what are their plans? The Zambia project, as i can see, has been on the backburner for sometime so if the development part affecting CNE is likely to now go ahead then that is great news and might dent the china only sales to date that is very disappointing when they must have huge demand internationally but choosing not to support sales outside China. If in the next 5 years they moved internationally they could grow exponentially to meet global demand and secure EPC partners globally and provide the technology. The question also is will we ever know if they do build it or not as like you say out of 40 projects we only only about 2 of them? incredulous is the word and CNE could be easily £100m-£200m today with the right sort of forward guidance on growth trajectory, decent information their hydrogen technology and the Zeolite membrane roll out. Really hope the board act now to address basic basic issues and move forward. We can hope today also that China and US both agree to aggressive climate targets that will bring fast track E10 back into the frame as it is easy low hanging fruit that does not really require any investment except mandating the blend. its the first port of call for countries to remove pollution from the roads and clean up the air and help meet CO2 emission targets.

Thanks for pointing that out. There is hope yet they announce a dividend as they have about £25m of equity that could be used for dividends so not short of shareholder equity at least. a share buy back is also a great option to improve EPS.
“Subject to the completion of the Investigation, the Company will issue further announcement(s) in relation to (i) the audited consolidated annual results for the Reporting Period agreed by the Auditor and the material differences (if any) as compared with the unaudited consolidated annual results contained herein; (ii) the proposed date on which the forthcoming annual general meeting of the shareholders of the Company will be held; and (iii) the period during which the register of members of the Company will be closed in order to ascertain shareholders’ eligibility to attend and vote at the forthcoming annual general meeting and determine shareholders’ entitlement to the final dividend, if any. In addition, the Company will issue further announcement(s) when necessary if there are other material developments in the completion of the audit process.”

I felt Abiy would ideally want this project agreed for sometime in May so he could use in his re-election. Harry was pretty confident on 31st March and he has not really stated specific hold-up explained except slowness so i feel some positive news could be by mid May to allow Abiy some benefit, although he is going to win by a landslide so probably not that important.

While we await an outcome noticed today China/US cosying up on only thing they can, climate. Expect bigger commitments to Ethanol i am sure. We can only hope pressure from all sides will make BOD change or have it forced upon them. Real shame divi has not been announced as that alone would have fixed most things in terms of fair value of company. I am confident CNE was already so lowly valued before suspension that shareprice can only move higher after suspension as BOD will be watched closely. Can cne be worth a forward PE of 2 on pretty clear signs of future growth?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/18/us-and-china-commit-to-cooperating-on-climate-crisis

Its maddening really especially if there has been any shenanigans. Bod could have announced a £3m dividend. No big deal for the company and bod and close associates with 60% of the company would have had their £2m nice and clean and a share price 4x todays price so they could have sold some stock on top if they wanted. Someone has got to get through to thid bod that there is an easier way to create value that does not require opaque behaviour. We talk about $2m but the move to HK is, i think $5m. Worst is that on AIM any cleantech has 4x in same time on average and that is an average. Some have 10x with far smaller sales pipeline and no profits. CNEL on Aim would easily be worth £100m+ without even trying. Over £6m profit even with the absurd “advisory” fees is phenominal and talk of Hydrogen should send CNE heavily northwards and their zeolite tech. could easily be £200m and no one would think it was not fair value based on forward PE and the diversification. Gun to head springs to mind. Unbelievable incompetence on the most basic of things but genius on the tech and fundamentals. We just need a new savvy CEO to reframe everything and off we go. Still cannot believe the total non sensical behaviour. I suspect we will need to wait many weeks before the investigation is cleared up and if i am right has the BOD had their meeting now on whether they will issue a dividend as it does appear that boat has left?

Well results have not disappointed so fundamentals are stellar. They publish the glossy report in a week or so that will have more narrative hopefully. we trade at PE of less than 4 today and forward PE of maybe 2 if £12m profit is possible. Apart from obvious issue of suspension even with BOD working hard to stay invisible the market must see the numbers. Its annoying personally no dividend has been approved as that for me was the key leverage to a re-rate that does not require BOD to do anything. Very perplexing time but we should expect a re-rate after suspension as numbers are strong and future even more so but when we come out of suspension is anyones business. I am thinking weeks and possibly longer but at least numbers are supporting $1 share price easily.

While i do not know the companies that formed the original ANS consortium what i do know is that when it came down to brass tacks 18 months ago in the version we are told (believe it or not) it coincided with a liquidity crisis in Ethiopia and basically ANS did not follow through. This was a group of local Ethiopian companies that had been formed when gold was $1250 and while the consortium was a little opaque (i do not have names) I am sure several had links to the government. i am sure there is more to it but in a recent webinar Harry had a wry smile saying that the ANS consortium missed the deadline so their deal was null and he was adamant Kefi did not need them as gold was $1800+. This resulted in Kefi looking it might end up with 75-85%. However i suspect that inorder to politically win this through the country it cannot be just seen as some foreign project so Harry has to continue to offer local companies an option to participate. For me overall the timing appears to be tied to Ethiopian elections. This is June 5th and Abiy and team will want to announce this deal prior to support narrative they are able to create the largest dollar export project in the country and new employment. I think the Kefi gold mine is well supported on this basis. For me sometime in May looks a good bet for serious news for Kefi shareholders. Abiy can then maximise the kudos alongside the Dam project he is pushing to get filled and again support his achievements. As to the 31st March it was always referred as "anticipated" and of course Harry wanted it but legals take time. Everything will be under NDA so i do wonder what else he can say about details as i would be keen to know what has happened between Jan 1st - march 31st in terms of paperwork and signing. The recent options granted RNS made it clear that it was based on TK happening and they know more than we do. i think the quarterly update really forced his hand as he was technically required to update but we could be close. A phrase from in recent RNS was "closing program having commenced and remaining in progress" so if that is believed it looks that he is referring to slowness of turnaround and not any change in direction. Suspicious minds might wonder if Kefi is short a few million as he is attending mining conferences but he probably needs to be seen to be doing what he can to give locals the chance, Frankly Harry is trying to pull off the gold mine deal of the decade by not putting up any cash , except the $60m of historic costs as our share of the project. it is a master stroke if he does it. personally i would be happy for him to get this over the line and do a placing but only once the paperwork is all signed so that cash goes into the closing of the project. We will see but £40m is a silly silly low price so there is plenty of upside here potentially. Certainly a 5x opportunity within 12 months subject to a good wind and with Russia sabre rattling gold is likely to climb.

I wonder if the Ethiopian government have invested $10m so far on roads and power for the fun of it and spent years working with communities on the move. No first mover gold mine is easy and when you working with the government who are a shareholder you know firstly it will take time and patience but secondly you know it will eventually happen. My only reason investing 12 months ago was because Kefi had the lowest value based on indicated gold in the ground by a factor of 3 and that the Ethiopian government were involved. The latter was a pretty big reason for me and suspect any investor with a higher level of confidence we are close. if this was Harry against a frontier territory you would not touch with a barge pole but governments have significant power and have a gravitational pull on investors who are more likely to back the project. Ultimately the Ethiopian government are the backstop to smooth the way. I am annoyed any of the ANS rabble are somehow still involved but suspect politically its probably part of the dance as i am sure Harry would prefer to have fewer parties involved. Slowly but steadily is fine by me and smart investors wait around on the drops to build positions.

Wow. $2 a gallon. hopefully input costs are not doing the same but good news. everything is firing in the background and really its just the BOD thats a liability.

Presumably this pushes things back as how long will it take? Days, weeks or months? Possibly for once the NEDs have some power as to date the duo that run CNE have got far too powerful and might finally find themselves reset back to where they should be running a company on behalf of shareholders and not their personal fiefdom. We will see. Obviously as a shareholder i want a good outcome but ultimately shareholders want a substantially different and transparent company with more news and a massive step up in their front of house communications to investors and prospective customers as they have 0 contracts outside of China. Why? Clearly the same reason as shareholders as their front presentation is amateur at best. So much potential, so many profits and clearly a top drawer exposure to China but winning deals abroad would really help confidence.

Volumes are good today which is good to see and price holding firm around 1.9, basically where we were a few weeks ago. While the topline timetable is the same Harry is packing in a lot in a short period of time. The quarterly report can be a downside as even if some steps have happened in last 3 months he is probably under Nda to not divulge but as in the past further news has been quite quickly after the quarterly. I think more has been done that the RNS puts out so lets see as May is very close.

While its not the news we wanted, given Harry talk of April in previous RNS and options granted etc, there is quiet optimism we are reaching that point but we all know its not easy to pull off. cant hide dissapointment on timing but things are still in motion and current price of 1.8 is a good position for those who can see the financial close in next few months. can kicking maybe but there is enough here to make it feel it will happen. Gla.