Member Info for Simms45

Interesting that it looks like a probable 4m sell has been filled today after hours. I have always felt that one of the contractors who got paid in shares in the last placing has been selling to cover their working needs. We have been pegged at 2p for so long now it is slightly unnatural without it. If the seller is done its possible tomorrow onwards we might start to see the sort of traction we probably all expected sometime ago and i think we have a lot of ground to make up. Personally i expected Kefi to retest the 2.5p high we saw in October, at the very least, given we have had a lot more positive signals in the last few weeks from the 3 year lock in for management and Kefi's search for an HR manager that appears to have been filled. I have seen this before where you almost feel something is wrong because the price is not moving as you would expect but all of a sudden it starts to pop and make up for lost ground. We will see but hopefully the seller has finished.

The RB tweet was helpful as frankly i think several people were chasing him as the radio silence and tanking share price made all investors feel that something was going very wrong and no one knew what. As soon as he put out that tweet it did help somewhat but a shame its the non exec that needed to be a spokesperson for the company as if you share price crashes 70% after an IPO i think investors expect some transparency manner. We will see but the baseline numbers should therefore match the IPO prospectus.

In the grander scheme of things AIM investors must be very small and almost have no bearing on the price. If we assume the Double River Stag operation dropped 10% of the company on the opening bell, where the price initially jumped to $1.38 on a well oversubscribed placing, and then all the way down to .275 that is all sloshing around Chinese and HK investors. Most of that DR shares were bought above .75 as i suspect no one understood what was going on and when they did everyone panicked together. Therefore the BOD must be aiming at the minimum of .98 to save face and appease the disgruntled investors who were probably close associates of the company and had personal contact with the BOD to invest. It will always take time to reach a fair value simply because of the bad way DR operated as they basically were a lender and only cared as long as the price they sold was greater than .5p. We will see but a good Final results could change the ship dramatically, especially if a dividend accompanies these results. Hopefully real pressure is being applied in China and HK as we are a long way from bothering the BOD.

Looking at Level 2 i think we should get to ASK of 2.2 very soon based on volume and suspect we will never see that again :)

2.14 40,000 09:41
2.17 3,000 09:17
2.17 251,178 09:40
2.18 5,000 07:51
2.2 300,000 WINS 07:50
2.2 5,000 07:51
2.2 200,000 PEEL 07:54
2.2 200,000 STFL 07:59
2.21 200,000 SCAP 07:54
2.22 118,244 09:14
2.25 250 07:51

Well SBen when the price hits 10p later this year and you have a £1m holding i hope you shout Harry a bottle of something, i will let you choose :)

Just could not resist but we are very close and if we get an incendiary Hawiah update just before TK to wet the appetites then while we have forgotten about the extra 10p NPV of that little project it will quickly come into view when we know where the finance will be coming from for that project, namely in the form of TK gold. The £2.5m of options today at a strike price of 2.5p locks in key management for the next 3 years and will be a handy raise when the time comes and if anyone has been in joint venture type deal no investor puts in cash without making sure the team they are investing in will not be around until the dust has settled. My expectation now is probably next week for the finance as they would have left this RNS until pretty close and worded the RNS carefully.

A little more traction but the results i have greater confidence will lead to a re-rate, as if any of the numbers come close together with VERY important backfill information on bullish prospects that then even the HK/Chinese investor base can spot a bargain or can CNE really trade on a PE of 3 for 2021? All that nonsense from the BOD about how AIM investors could not value CNE has now fully backfired on the CEO and Chairman as it was and still is 100% about transparency and respect for shareholders and its a shame they spent $1m to find out the hard way that you you cant blame your tools. All i can say is CNE have the 24th to redeem themselves fully and then some and acknowledge their poor historic transparency and to make amends. They have everything on paper to become a £100m-£200m business and i hope the BOD find the humility to move forwards from the pitiful £28m market cap today. GLA

Great news as Harry has said basically confirmed TK finance is over the line and just a little more time to wait.

“deferred pending the announcement that the project financing was proceeding for the Company's Tulu Kapi Gold Project.

The Option Scheme and the Company's approach to remuneration generally is designed to align the interest of senior management with those of shareholders and to promote the retention of the Company's senior management team. The senior executive team of KEFI has indicated its intention to remain with KEFI for a minimum of three years so as to oversee the Tulu Kapi Gold Project's physical development, the organisational development in Ethiopia for the start-up of production at Tulu Kapi and the aggressive pursuit of the Company's pipeline of other projects at various stages of exploration, notably the exploration of satellite targets in the Tulu Kapi district, “

Game on everyone!

Managed to jump in on the call today. seemed very relaxed and one snippet is still the talk of a toll milling the high grade pit so that is still simmering away. The Metso investment i think is just the starter and can see them muscling in on any raise when Condor need it. That would be amazing and i am sure Calibre now know they need to pull out the stops or they lose any opportunity of a deal Condor deal with Rio in the future. I am more bullish a deal can be done but at same time frustrated it was not signed last year and generating cashflow as we would have had a sizeable re-rate. It could have soured relations and rightly so i suspect as Calibre thought they had upper hand but sadly cost both companies by not doing a deal earlier. MC says once kit is delivered he sees a 12 month build so the sooner this all comes on site the better. He specifically mentioned working with government on remaining 5% so with mine purchase i expect that to be expedited. Drilling updates should be imminent as i think only 7 drills to go so i think updates should be coming in later this month. Would be massive if we can get more confidence on the 5m ounzes sooner.

ticked up today to .5 in last hour on relatively low volume so might suggest any overhang has been absorbed and could set the scene for further gains this week. Everything seems in place for a decent re-rate on any number of updates in the FY results but CNE are certainly keeping their cards close to their chest, for some unknown reason. My hope last summer was that the BOD and staff have now got their awarded shares from the IPO and staff share incentive plans so they really have little to gain from keeping the market cap of the company in the £22m bracket for a company potentially looking to make 40% of that value just in profit this year. Even 4X would still seriously undervalue the company given the potentially momentum growth of Ethanol production in China and around this world over the coming 5 years. Every country and their dog are openly targeting E10 and then some. Throw in ethanol for sanitiser and you would think there is perfect storm for CNE and their wonder Zeolite hydration device.

We certainly all hope so Mills and TM. The company could equally make me happy to even forgo the dividend and instead carry out a decent share buyback of £1m-£5m as we trade well below net asset value so that would be positive all round. Given they raised money at .98 if they could buy back shares up to .8 they would have a result. We will see but not long now but the slide back is a little disconcerting as you might expect that to reverse as we get closer to results. in the interims we jumped considerably on expectation of a dividend and then fell back heavily when that was not forthcoming.

Market has really not let the news today sink in. We know MC is on his way to Nic, we know by putting money on the mine it proves to the government Condor are serious so if they need to have the reason to compulsory purchase the remaining 3% of land not owned. Personally i suspect land could be in the final sprint and reason for Nic is to sort out such matters as well as maybe finalise toll. MC has left plenty of powder to followup with and will be interesting to find target first pour and how much sooner we might expect and other costs related to build. Also did we get a discount, although buying for shares was a masterstroke. Markets will catch up on what is happening here and 60p this week would not be unwarranted because of the stronger likelihood of land RNS and toll potentially coming into focus. Certainly Calibre now have lost leverage spectacularly and should now see this commercially only with no cheap buy in and salvage something from this as Rio i am sure are probably less than happy Calibre have achieved nothing so far from their commercial agreement.

If they dont announce a maiden dividend it will be a kick in the teeth for all staff at CNE and long-term shareholders. They cant sit on the best part of £30m of profits over last 5 years and not offer one. Positive this is now less than 2 weeks from happening and hopefully furnish shareholders will a full report on goings ons. Could be a key moment for CNE.

Its a barnstormer of an RNS and to cap it off the shares will be listed on Toronto and maybe wakeup the Canadians just at the right time as we out the countdown clock on to firsf pour. Fast tracking is what it is all about, just brought forward the NPV by a good many months. I suspect a roll call of news to follow this one up this month so this will definitely be the starting gun on the re-rate over next few months. GLA

Exciting times on paper and lets hope dividend is announced. That is the game changer to some extent as market are kept in the dark. Interesting articles on massive ethanol buying from US with recent purchase last few days more than entire 2020 from US. My guess is China is stockpiling ethanol for E10 mandate and worked out what they need on top of domestic production to make it happen. If its true China will be surely building or planning to build 100s more Ethanol plants. Otherwise why buy so much Ethanol? why CNE does not release news on domestic plans its beyond me and instead tell us about tupperware parties. Getting pretty brassed off by utter silence from CNE and the finals better be impressive on future game plan and market dynamics.

There is one thing you can be pretty confident about this year and that is a lot of surprise news. This was not even on the radar and there are dozens that are that we should get updates on this year. The sheer number of possible collaborations, orders and partners is mind boggling. Every company and their dog is battling for net zero supremacy and every big manufacturer like Toyota is in the firing line with probable massive taxes on the way if they do not get themselves sorted by 2030. Those that meet net zero can probably secure lucrative tax breaks while companies that have not started today will be taxed heavily and its smart companies like Toyota getting ahead of the queue for Eqtec technology as that is the case. As far as i can see Eqtec is the best in class partner by a mile able to deal with 50 input feeds and completely modular dealing in the goldilocks output ranges for large companies and local municipals. As i have said before my concern is not the growth but the resources at Eqtec to keep up. They will be handling probably dozens of enquiries. Just today off the back of Toyota all of the major car manufacturers will be all over Eqtec so that they are not left behind. The demand is literally vertical and we need to make sure Eqtec can keep up. My feeling is they are drowning in deals and what we are seeing in regards to some deals is that they are taking longer to come to fruition. This is not because of problems but simply resources and probably DPs signing hand is getting tired :) They must be literally working flat out and lets hope they can pass on a lot of the workload to partners so Eqtec can focus on scaling. i would be personally surprised if we do not hit 10p by the year end as everything is in place, except five DPs one on every continent but we will get there!

Starts to blow your mind just how big the market is for Eqtec. If every company this size bolts on a gassification plant Eqtec would be in a very good place. Excellent to continue to prove traction and execution of their strategy and looking forward to more news like this incoming.

Penny is dropping i think that Kefi is about to go vertical. Strong buys after hours and slack of stock is being absorbed. Could well be a contractor that has been selling for tuppence last few months but we might be about to push on to test 2.5 over coming week or so. After todays RNS and presentation its very hard to not read between the lines on this one. clearly some local investors are expected to join but Harry has been clear he has full backing to potentially give Kefi 85% but open to take 65% but its not needed. While i am sure this extra investor base probably comes from the ANS rabble i really really hope Harry has no intention to entertain those clowns that messed Kefi around last 3 years and works with billion pound FTSE investor already in place. GLA

Current market cap is barely over a forward PE of 3 according to stockopedia which is almost criminal and probably not ever come across a company valued so low given expected profitability for a cleantech growth stock. A forward PE of 20 would not be out of place. Lets hope CNE announce a divi as i dont think we can rely on the company to engage with investors and its easiest to find dividend hunters. While we can dream CNE bod might start to communicate commercial news and raise company profile history seems to say otherwise. Come on BOD its not too late to turn this around and raise market cap to £100m and then raise some cash and grow faster.
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/china-new-energy-HKG:1156/

Really feels that the market has got it wrong this time. You cant have Harry waxing lyrically about TK being on track with less than 3 weeks to close. he clearly knows already but market seems to simply not believe. Could be a few beers at the end of month.