Member Info for Simms45

Slowly the market is spotting the opportunity. Still a long way to go but can see the IPO price arriving quite soon. This could really take off in March.

Of course all investors would have liked land to be 100% owned and toll agreement signed by now and we would be looking at a £1 share by now so instead of 10% dilution it would be 5% but its not so big in the grander schemes. Both have not happened yet but next best strategy is crack on, bring forward drilling and put deposit on a plant etc. Also i am sure the money will help grease the palm of the 5% hold outs so hopefully bring land conclusion sooner as i suspect that is holding up proceedings. Could all come together in March with perhaps some constructive news later this month as many RNSs must be readying themselves. Sooner we get to production the better and having £10m in the kitty is a very nice place to be in all honesty.

looks we are now heading into the final stretch. £4m will make sure we get across the line quickly and prove the 5m ounze district. Whats not to like to speed things up?

“The placement proceeds will be used to complete engineering and other technical studies, purchase the remaining 5% of the land in and around the minesite infrastructure, place a deposit on a processing plant, finance a 4,000m infill drilling program currently underway with two drill rigs within the high grade starter pits within the permitted la India open pit. The extra cash also allows Condor to continue with exploration activity aimed at demonstrating the potential for a 5 million oz Gold District at La India Project: the Company will commence a 5,000m drilling program on the Cacao vein in the near future."

i noticed they posted this update of projects several weeks ago and is certainly all a step in the right direction, again similar timing when the share price started to move alongside other news. Not sure how many are recent as most seem quite legacy but the ore the BOD can be transparent and the more they can update the better for growing shareholder interest in CNE, help to build confidence and ultimately increase the market cap of the business from the derisory valuation today that is massively out of kilter with the business opportunity presented over next 18 months. Long way to go but early March if 5 year plan supports Ethanol i think CNE could double again as China will need to build 100s of Ethanol plants across the country and they can use their BRI to move other countries along. We will see but omens are looking positive.

Article worth reading if you have not already :
https://www.forbes.com/sites/salgilbertie/2021/01/27/us-producers-come-to-the-rescue-as-china-begins-to-import-ethanol/

First week of March i understand is the signoff in China for new 5 year plan. If Ethanol is mandated at E10 across whole country CNEL should fly. Given China has been stockpiling the largest quantity of Ethanol recently from US probably tells you something. the issue stands that the board should not legally be able to hold out major contract signings as that could offer insider trading so a project the size of Inner Mongolia if added into FY results but later found out was recently signed would be insider trading offence and might explain recent price rise. As usual we are left guessing but we are still massively undervalued and much work needs to be done at CNE to resolve their closeted existence and treat shareholders with some respect.

Still would find it slightly crazy for a goverent to align capital gains with income tax as it would lead to massive tax losses for the government. every company would book crazy capital losses and get a windfall. Given last 12 months of massive capital gain losses for most businesses it would mean companies and individuals not paying taxes for years and possibly decades especially if its at higher rates of tax. Anyway we will see but Rishi would single handedly blow any opportunity to be business friendly and companies will never setup in the UK and open companies abroad and those that do would just take advantage of the tax perks to write capital gains off in the UK as a sort of dumping ground. I just think lowering the limit to £5k is more likely to show some attempt. Anyway this has nothing to do with Eqtec so applogies but plenty of news to come this month so at the end of the day newsflow and execution will drive Eqtec forward.

i would be very surprised if the government changed capital gains tax given the governments plan to try and become competitive to attract business and investment. Raising capital gains would make the UK far less attractive a place to do business. The bigger reason i suspect it will not happen is that the flipside is that if you make a capital loss you could claim up to 50% of it back. Therefore potentially it could be ruinous for a country as companies would book massive capital gains losses in the UK while booking capital gains somewhere else. Accountants would have a field day.

I have watched L2 a bit and someone is trying to hold back price. 100k shares keeps getting added at 2.1 but next leg up is 2.19. Hopefully when 2.1 is removed we can move on. I suspect by March we should be moving back to 2.5 or above on any news we might get in the meantine. All systems go as Harry said :)

2.1 100,000 14:04
2.19 345,903 11:55
2.2 31,000 07:50
2.2 250 07:51
2.2 100 07:51
2.2 200,000 STFL 07:58
2.2 100,000 08:02
2.2 119,319 08:28

One thing i know is in the technology world winner largely takes all. Eqtec, as far as i am aware, has the best waste to energy biomass conversion and patents for UK and Europe and the business model actually can make this a profitable venture for almost any company with the right waste output. Consider most companies were paying to take this waste away many can now build a modular plant next door and not only tick boxes for environmental purposes but turn a profit by either using to power their energy needs or plugging into local grid for feed in tariffs. The 3 MW plant is the sweetspot for large scaleable sales that will pile up as governments turn screw on emissions but the 25MW plants are the big infrastructure spends that we will get used to as incineration is taken out of action, a bit like coal powered power stations. Incineration is largely obselete or a very hard sell to planners. These can be £100m+ so we do not need many projects before Eqtec starts to look at billions of revenue. i think we are on target for 10p this year and with all ducks lining up could power over this in time. Still need plenty of good news to land to see it happen but the massive market opportunity is so big for Eqtec if they dont make a stab at it someone will snap them up and leverage.

Always good to get unexpected good news as i have said before projects is not the issue as we have potentially 100s. This collaboration highlighted 4 more to add to the pot on top of Deeside just as a warmup. What is however key, and i think this underlines something i am wary of is resources. Logic can help Eqtec deliver projects and that is key as the pipeline is going to continue exploding and revenues and profits will grow extremely quickly. i can see our unicorn status is on track for later this year as Eqtec are making all the right moves.

I have a feeling some of the smaller investors sub £1m in Ethiopia might alternatively instead of injecting the cash into the project directly through the TKGM vehicle might well look to build an equity stake as Harry said Kefi are at a considerable discount to the project valuation of our equity. I suspect Harry will also be keen to close that gap. Therefore there is potential arbitrage as some investors take a direct position here and if that happens you might well then expect the Kefi price to get closer to the project valuation stake of Kefi. Of course it needs to close end of March but the firmer it is the more chance investors will be taking a direct position here, albeit with a small float so will only suit smaller local investors in Ethiopia.

It is certainly great to hear that the IPO forecasts are still on track as the silence for last 6 months and 70% collapse in price has played some mind tricks but as RB says they would have needed to legally advise market if the IPO doc was not on track so that says what i want to hear in terms of fundamentals. definitely a serious legup incoming back to IPO price for starters
and given all latest climate action news you can expect some confidence hopefully in the language used to present the future prospects of CNEL that i hope will start to show in their news. I am not sure if any institutions held onto shares but UK contingent i suspect is 5% or less. We might be the last man standing but i think we all know things that CNEL is coming together. Its possible the major re-rate for cleantech companies seen over christmas might pickup for CNEL as they are way behind the market valuation curve. they really should 4x todays market cap of £25m.

“For those asking about #HK1156 it is hard to answer any questions prior to results. QED if there was any major deviation from forecasts then the company would make an announcement as per HKEx rules.”

As i see it we are back to where we were 2 weeks ago before the research note that jumped the price to 55p on relatively low volumes. I think we are all a little lacklustre than land has not been bought and toll has not been agreed. However that land purchase is in the crosshairs and the toll must be waiting on possibly the drilling update of Mestiza but we are now in February and both of those could be achieved anytime soon. Gold is steady and things are moving forward on the ground. Certainly feels that we just need to double down on the land and speed the Mestiza in fill drilling and everything can change in a moment.

The key for me really is for CNE to keep newsflow moving and keep investors in the loop. we have had a small improvement on that front that coincided with more buys so i think that financial PR resource that Ivy said they were looking into might have come to fruition but we will see but before 3 weeks ago it was almost a blank website. I am happy to invest longer term as the potential is massive and CNE is just so cheap by any standards you can imagine however if we are only waiting for a sniff in the footnotes in the interims or finals it is very painful while insiders take advantage knowing what is really going on. Fortunately i think the market rise in Ethanol will be massively positive for CNE regardless of my concerns and i understand the 5 year plan is signed off in early March so that is prior to results and could be a key date of a big rise for CNE if E10 is mandated and government up their game. Also the Chinese just bough the largest ever export of Ethanol from the US so that rather bodes well for China planning to push E10 nationally and get some stock in place prior so i think that is telling. Presumably if that happens China will push the rest of the BRI and the world to follow suit. i think China want to present themselves ahead of the US for the environment and use that to grow influence in Europe. However Biden is doubling down so its potentially a perfect storm for CNE. China will be desperate to not become reliant on US imports so they must be pressing all sorts of buttons to grow their own Ethanol inventories. This is why i am very keen to know where we are on Cellulosic Ethanol as corn based has its issues as i can see as China has been caught short last year. If CNE can license their Zeolite device and work with more partners abroad they can really go places but their UK website that any foreign company will be looking at is woefully disappointing so that needs to change. The share volumes in CNE are still tiny in the grand scheme of things with maybe £100k changing hands on a good day so that bodes well for price hikes. Serious investors will want a lot more. I would ask anyone to keep pressure on CNE to update the UK website and realise more news coverage for the company as it will have a profoundly big effect on the long-term prospects and maybe just maybe drag CNE onto the wider global market but they certainly seem very dug in serving PRC only today and that is also a risk to put all eggs in one basket. Roll on 5 year plan and end of year results and hopefully get some more news out.

Where do you think CNE are with cellulosic ethanol technology in comparison to wider market as it does not feature on their website although i know it was talked about in their IPO document and know it is something they have been developing but not sure they have a customer?

The recent planning permission news was for a slightly tweaked planning application that was already approved so the news was not so big but still very important as it was one of the prerequisites to concluding the financing later this month that i suspect is very likely to happen now and prove Eqtec can walk the talk. By this time next month 3p will likely be in the rear view mirror and several news items are expected this month :)

Is it me or is there quite a lot more info on the zkty website? I can see lists projects by Ethanol type and some industry news, albeit old, but a step in the right direction. They should translate to the UK website as that has not been touched or they should close it down. Hopefully the change is permanent as one correlation is that the share price has moved up since the last few news releases.

Just re-read news on zeolite and mitsubishi and i like the final sentence :

“The two parties reached a consensus, hoping to become the pioneer of acid-resistant zeolite membrane dehydration equipment in China and internationally.”

Given so few shares are moving the shareprice hopefully the buyer will continue back to IPO price.

what i am sure everyone shares frustration is we are all guessing on the way down and up. We know deep down the company, assuming nothing catastrophic has happened and not reported to the market, is CNEL is undervalued by a factor of 5 at least because their main business is ethanol fuel production (85% of revenue) that is about to sky rocket in demand from global mandates and hopefully in the update early next March from 5 year plan to get that back on track. Recently China imported 200m gallons of ethanol from the US so China do not want that and will be now forcing massive Ethanol growth internally. We also know the biggest issue is corn and that CNEL have already got ahead of the pack and working on ethanol from other input sources. We also know the Zeolite device can boost Ethanol production maybe 20% apparently. CNEL are perfectly synchronised with the market. My wish like everyone else is more frequent news that investors can gauge the lay of the land as today it is just insiders who are buying and selling the stock to their advantage. PIs just have to twiddle their thumbs guessing if Inner Mongolia was signed off along with 40 other projects but this is widely known amongst those on the inside. The dividend would be the key to unlocking a base level of value but cleantech companies on a similar revenue curve to CNEL in the UK are priced in multiples of revenue because of the market potential. Even a low revenue multiple of 2 shows a 5x appreciation for CNEL. Had CNEL stayed on aim and with some arm twisting they could have got a far higher valuation today. Personally i think CNEL can and should properly reposition to market its tech globally, work with EPCs and move heaven and mountain to put their head above the parapet as clearly all their business today is in the PRC and that is fine but they will probably miss out. There is talk of the BRI and lets hope that this brings benefits to CNEL. These final year results i really hope cover a lot of ground as they have 1 year of news to get across to shareholders.

CNEL is one of the most undervalued stocks i have known for sometime and maybe market in HK are finally getting wind of it, how i do not know, but lets hope it continues in earnest up to March at least back to IPO price. If 1m-2m (£100k-£200k) shares move price 15% we could arrive there very soon.