Member Info for Simms45

The share price today stands 3x from its low of .6 earlier last year as the project firms up and Kefi executes on the finance and Hawiah project. So much has been done on all fronts in a relatively short space of time. The market is showing confidence we are getting to the conclusion. Gold mines take 12 years on average from shovel to production and we are average so far. Just a little longer for lths to see a return from their investment. As Harry said it is all system go. In hindsight in 4-8 weeks we will all have wished we tucked a few more away sub 2p. Be brave when others are fearful is key as buying when the board are pessimistic has been often the best time to buy in.

The board of Kefi is very strong and while we are not at the cigar stage we are getting a lot closer. I think the updated presentation is more telling how things are going and i keep reminding myself that the EBITDA just on open pit at $1700 gold is $95M p.a. just to Kefi from TK alone. ThiS is nearer $120m at $1900 gold. When you multiply that by a fair PE you get a very big number compared to todays valuation that is not even 50% of 1 years EBITDA. We are not there yet but risk/reward seems closer than ever. Once Kefi also starts to drill again on the concessions it owns plus it sounds like a lot more in the post from its government partner the mind starts to boggle just how big this could get for Kefi as its plant can continue to process what they can throw at it and expanded so could become a magnet. The point that the "Consortium is executing action plans agreed in December 2020 for financial closing March 2021" is positive and lets keep up the execution of that plan. I think the bank finance due diligence is completed but now waiting on investor injections as it looks that the bank finance is based on 50% LTV so that is very conservative and gives plenty of wiggle room. I think we are now in the home straight and waiting 4-8 weeks is fine by me for TK to land and in the meantime that presentation is fantastic as RobJM66 as put forward. Plenty of new information to add to the previous steps and Hawiah upgrade awaits next few weeks.

The big positive for me is the word “closing” as its the most definite Kefi has been so it could even be early March. All updates on due dilugence confirmed as good. Of course would be nice to have had something binding on any front but that is how it is. There might well be a further intermediary RNS in february. First pour never budged from 2022 so the re-rate to that point will be exceptional. Hawiah is the icing on the cake but ultimately its massive and next drill assay results look very encouraging. So much potential here for a 5x return with 12 months and more with a good Hawiah backwind. GLA as March is getting closr.

Having slowly worked out that news RNS in HK do not really exist except financial updates it does open massive valuation diifferentials. Whether the move today is based on Mitsubishi news or maybe China gearing up its E10 we have a lon way to go as i still think we should be nearer $150m valuation for starters and not $25m which is still utterly absurd. Good to see some investors spotting opportunity but its get one hell of a long way to go and we need to keep pressure on BOD to unlock more news professionally so it is wisely distrubuted. If the move has anything to do with recent news it was a week ago they put on website. Still 29% move is a start but from such a low point. Even 100% from the crazy low is not unwarranted because of the neglect of the BOD on disseminating updates.

Remember Harry has made sure every penny invested so far is our equity contribution to the project. Normally at this stage pis are looking at a massive dilution as company raises £xm to inject. Harry has got 2 investors on board and the reason we are looking at 65% is that part of this deal is that all investment to date counts are our equity contribution and i think its about £50m. Its no easy deal to pull off but for investors here if he does it is off the scale. If Harry wanted he could just go and raise £30m, dilute kefi pis by another few billion shares and get on with it. That is normally how this is done. seriously if he pulls it off he will be looked upon pretty well by those investing today at tuppence a share. We will have 65% of $212m funds and once mine is built Kefi is easily a £150m-£250m company just for TK fully operational at current gold prices. With Hawiah maybe a lot lot more and will find out just how big that might be. its a possible 10 bag opportunity over 2-4 years from todays price assuming TK finance. Risk and reward. The only downside really is time elapsing and we dont want to miss the gold bull market and everyone wants to get on but gold is there, BFS is there so it will get their. maybe monday will be a different day :)

Bear in mind a few things about last interview. Firstly he was up to do it. How many CEOs put themselves in the firing line literally takimg infiltered repetitive questions. He and whole senior BOD had flown mid Covid from Australia and somehow managed to get to Ethiopia. Do you understand just how hard that was when Australia had closed border. He was in Ethiopia for all signing of documents and completing those key meetings. He was not there for fun as clearly travel restrictions at the time were extreme. People push at him but i actually have not come across many companies (Eqtec aside) were a CEO is available and providing quarterly updates. Seriously i get things are not happening as fast as everyone wants but i dont think anyone deep down does not offer credit to Harry. I have investments in companies where i have never heard the BOD speak or give any updates. While Harry is not everyones cup of tea his straight talking and willing to answer painful questions is honourable. As to accusations he milking the company there are RNS that he has put in more money than he has taken out and taken salary in shares. I think plenty of external factors have not helped and while TK has not got over the line you need to look at facts as they are today and make a decision. For me Harry was setup to fail by the ANS rabble who never injected cash and probably had ulterior motives or shorting Kefi on the side. As i see it we now have credible components (billion pound LSE listed company / banks / Government). As to resettlement obviously that will not happen until the money lands as compensation is due and reasonably healthy as it was only cost that went up while all others fell. Village from previous communications are keen to move. Harry was first person to meet new mines minister and is chairman of the gold alliance. He has well at the top table with government and EG have 20% stake in a potentially £20bn gold mine where it will be Ethiopias biggest exporter and a way for country to build foreign reserves. The fact Kefi got government as shareholder shows how impressive he is as i would like to see any of us get the UK government to invest in our companies :) We shall see.

In my experience 3rd attempt often smashes it although one of 10-20 RNSs due this year would help :) Good news potentially about Aries spurious patent case and hopefully that concludes as Biden is going to kickstart a massive cleantech boom and Eqtec is right in the cross hairs. How many Eqtec gassification plants are needed just in California forests? A lot and thats just wood input. The sooner Eqtec tops out Northfork and gets more press orders will flood in, although they must be more being warmed up.

I have looked at a few other companies in the HKex and there does appear to be very limited news apart from those expected such as interims and finals. This really is startling as on a practical level how to investors gather up to date and credible information to make informed decisions who to invest in? It beggars belief frankly if HK investors need to physically visit each website and hope it is complete and accurate. If that is the case then it stands that CNEL need to double down on their communications through their website and financial PR. I am still miffed that a contingent of investors will have access to knowledge, for example about whether the the Inner Mongolian contract was signed and therefore benefit from insider deal. If the deal was signed in Q4 then 100s of people and contractors will be aware but most people will not as there is no news published on the website or elsewhere. It seems very odd if this is how HKex operates and really cannot understand why anyone would invest in a company listed on the HKex as for me i tend to read every RNS on UK and US companies alongside normal research before investing. To have no information available and relying on badly worded PR then it makes it almost impossible for pis to get in before those closest to the company and whom have knowledge before others. I still cannot believe this is true but was amazed how little news is reported against companies.

Where did this information come from? Any good finance director should be always looking for the best bank finance. What can happen is a bank has a large amount of money it needs to deploy and could jump in and seal the deal less than existing bank finance but i personally doubt it. I have personally been in deals where banks all of a sudden have cash to loan and its a rush to secure. The one massive advantage and significant sunk cost was Kefi has a BFS, the gold standard for raising bank finance. However my assumption is bank finance is signed off and investors are investing cash this month or pdq to meet the RNS schedule released last month. As last RNS explains investors are first in and that will drive the first 4-5 months and then bank loan will come in to top up and when its minimum risk for bank as investor cash is secured. The fact no recent RNS tells me banking side is sorted.

Lets just wait and see what comes forward by the end of this month. We are due an update and probably Hawiah drilling update and TK finance update so plenty potentially come in the next 10 days.

While i do not know what this equipment cost new and what it is worth now i noted when MC mentioned £50m or so this seemed pretty high so not sure what portion is the equipment and what portion is the installation. You would think a SH mine would be 50% or more after just a few years use as ultimately maintenance balloons and equipment failure is more likely the older it is. I am pro a SH mine ideally as close as possible as you might think it could save time but again i am not sure. As long as the saving is significant and the reliability good then SH makes sense. Key really is to be able to quickly make the jump and ramp up efficiently. What you do not want is further higher costs later to refit and any mine delays.

Good to see Harry is a speaker and therefore confident for this event nd by the time the event starts i am hopeful we will have that financing resolved. Loving the silence at the moment as i have been here with other companies that are waiting to release the news.

Glandore it might be slightly tongue it cheek but Harry has been able to successfully raise many placings for Kefi for the last 10 years through a lot of bearish territory and many gold miners were not able to. Harry has kept the lights on, albeit not to everyones liking. Those that have been around for the last 10 years as explorers and still here do have staying power. As i have said before average time in years from finding gold to digging it up is around 12 years so we are due our finance before 18 months to first pour.

I am personally pretty impressed by the experience and depth of both the BOD, Non-Execs and Senior Management at Kefi. The team at Kefi look a a lot better than most other gold exploration companies that i have reviewed. Kefi is setup for a much larger footprint. Harry trained as a chartered accountant so the one thing you would like think he would ultimately get right is the financing with John Leach but Harry knows his way around the mining industry and is at the top table in Ethiopia and built a very strong basis for the company in the country. For a government to be convinced to invest in Kefi is a great success for the company that acts as a magnet for investment from the soft power that will secure. One thing i am comfortable with is that Harry has proved himself adept at securing financing.

Does seem that as soon as UK markets close Germans get busy. Should be a steady rise up to 3p tomorrow and test that resistance level. Any news and we could be flying. Would like to see how many more orders we have added to the £200m already in the pot. As a cleantech in a massive potential market if Eqtec can be seen to be winning the market share we should see Eqtec moved to be valued at a multiple of revenues as we could conceivably hit a doubling of the order book value sometime this year.

Its important for all shareholders to make the BOD hear or they will continue the same. i have to say the UK RNSs were pretty limited so really they are just continuing the same in HK. Only a jolt and to make shareholders get hold will change that. Complaints can be made to https://www.hkex.com.hk/Global/Exchange/Contact?sc_lang=en&tab=1 but clearly the IPO document mentioned Inner Mongolia to sign Q4 2020 and there has been no confirmation or not this happened. The contract is at such a size that it materially affects the market cap of CNEL and those with knowledge whether the contract was signed delayed, cancelled can deal on insider information. Contractors and many other people will know on the ground what is going on. The fact they have not updated the market on this contract and potentially others is breaking the directors fiduciary obligations to release news that impacts the future assessment of the companies prospects. This is really just a tip of the iceberg as like TopMoney has said if the Zeolite hydration works this is globally important to the Ethanol industry and yet there has been no communication. Again this must surely be breaking rules?

Its a major problem as well as an opportunity. As i see it CNEL are off the radar. CNEL have done everything humanely possible to minimise investor interest. It has released no RNS since IPO, the interims were almost certainly harsh on purpose and there was no commentary. The website has 0 news and recent news is circumstantial and not defined, again on purpose i feel as Inner Mongolia and recent Mitsubishi could be massive news correctly presented. At the same time if you believe in the Ethanol growth story and CNEL must surely be doing well in the background then that pitiful volume could be arguably an opportunity to build a position at low prices. There is no reason the company is worth so little at £13m and the market would not bat an eyelid if it was priced 5 or 10 times this amount in the current drive for net zero and Ethanol being a cheap option for governments as it requires almost no investment by the government and going from E10-E20 would have a massive impact on carbon emissions so low hanging fruit. Any additional fuel price is passed on and it would be marginal at such low concentrations. For a country like India with 500m vehicles that is big. The battle is with the BOD who are running a family affair and presumably soaking up the sales on the quiet to increase their overall position at the expense of investors as we have seen a price hold of .3 where someone is taking up the slack each day. If they can drive down PIs they can further increase their ownership and at some point it could be a big bang. If salaries 8X their previous year salary then the BOD are milking the company and effectively taking their dividend and keeping pis at arms length as emails go unanswered. There is definitely grounds for and EGM with 5% shareholder and it is worth making complaints to the HKex to investigate as if they are withholding Inner Mongolia or commercial agreement with Mitsubishi that materially affects the prospects of the business i presume they are breaking laws and rules as directors. Given Inner Mongolia should have signed in Q4 2020 even an update of the delay should have been expected? Since there is no update on any kind we can only guess but that single project will make more profit that the current market cap of the entire company and launch CNEL into the big projects.

Wes should al try living in Cayman Islands, Channel Islands etc and like the rest of the super rich NO CGT. It is depressing when governments talk about tax risers but those with money are well out of harms way paying 0 income and CGT tax but to you join the club arguably you need £10m to make extra hassle worthwhile, and i guess enjoy spending your time in a Covid free, 5 star resort :) oh well while i am happy to pay CGT i really would prefer it not to rise as any such rises simply means there is more motivation for more to move abroad to lower CGT regimes as threshold gets lower. Its obvious to me you need to lower all such taxes to make even the billionaires happy to pay it and look at countries with low taxes and you have plenty of tax revenue as it become less cost effective to find workarounds.

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Its a good reminder that RAB Capital are on the board and will add some useful expertise to close TK. I think they are astute investors and having them on the board and able to inject further investment is very valuable. We can hope Hawiah update will be a nice interlude before TK as i sense we are incredibly close. All of the macroeconomic indicators are in place and Ethiopia is ripe for a gold mining boom. The EG once they get this completed will send the correct signal to the market they are open for business and Kefi will be in pole position building the largest and most modern gold mining operation in the country and able to process ore potentially for the whole region of Artisanal gold miners. Just a little bit longer as end of January we will get some some RNSs incoming.