Member Info for Simms45

Incredible day so dar. We have swapped about £2m of old investors to exit and £3m to join Eqtec at around 3p. That is exactly what we need to properly re-rare quickly. A lot of movement north to follow over coming weeks and all those who want to get off at 3p are out. Eqtec is a global leader in Gasification and largely untouched in its field for efficiency and business model. Incineration of waste is over in the western world as it counts against the Paris Climate Agreement and is simply not close to being as efficient to convert to electricity like Eqtec. With Biden banging the drum and looking to get back into the Paris climate agreement the key here is that it will raise all boats and countries will battle for cleantech supremacy by being the first country to be carbon neutral. Only a massive massive government investment worldwide will get close to the Paris Agreement and Eqtec is in an incredible position to not only help reduce landfill and incineration but also help companies globally play their part. Queue the Wood RNS and others to unlock that globally. Not sold a bean as we have only just begun on this roadtrip and market cap is still crazily low where Eqtec can go this year when you look at cleantech comparables, which arguably there is not direct competitor offering the business model of Eqtec and the patented and world class tech. ATB

That took all of 30 seconds :)

Looking at L2 looks easy ride up to 3 and then flush out the weak hands no doubt but moving strongly on low volume showing most people are not selling.

Certainly loving these predictions. In all honesty i think the market cap will be as big as DP wants it to be as we know the demand is vertigious. In him i see someone hugely ambitious and his strategy of partnering and cherry picking stakes in projects is a strategy for some with very big ambitions. All the code words are there and the market is now watching the execution. A bit like Elon @ Tesla it is not that Tesla has anything really better than anyone else, in fact i think the car looks more like a Ford Mondeo but its his ambition and ability to create a vision and make everyone believe. I can see DP thinking big and if we can now execute a little more and prove his financial savvy there is a very BIG market cap he could go for. Whether it is £1bn or £10bn is actually not a great difference as it will all depend on the trajectory of the growth. Today he has set his hoped trajectory and the outcome of those partnerships and Billinghams will confirm whether it will fast track to £1bn or £10bn or not. This is a story of ambition.

I think experience is all you have to investing and all those losses added together teach each investor and nobody elses advice really helps. Each loss or win is unique to each and helps improve their understanding for their own level of risk/reward they are looking for. For me i am largely only looking for potential 5 baggers within a 12 month period to keep things interesting and focused. I have hit a few and missed a few this year and learned some more slightly painful lessons mostly about timing (arguably the only thing you need to get right). Certainly in my review of Kefi 8 months ago the big elephant in the room was the lowest price per indicated ounze in the ground of Gold and it was a factor of 3 to anyone else so the bottom line was the gold is known and we just need to dig it up and the incredible £60m of investment that would form our equity in the TKGM funding so no massive dilution. That was jaw dropping and still is. Not really sure if investors value that on financing that £60m of investment will turn into a £60m asset on the balance sheet. Its massive and a hell of a lot better than a £60m placing! Just imagine we will own 65% of $200m plant so nice capital asset potentially heading our way. Also if Harry could not do this deal he could flip to a major for a decent amount as the £60m of losses can reduce corporation taxes. while Harry is love or loathe i like Harrys open and willingness to take an investor bashing while most CEOs would have been laying low. Even if you do not like Harry you have to give it him he open and that for me gave me confidence that Ultimately Harry is not a quitter, i fully see his 5 year battle to close TK but a lot has been external and the gold bear market. So today Kefi is still the cheapest indicated ounze of gold in the ground and we are as close as ever to finance. This has 5x written all over it if TK lands, although basing from a lower point but the path is open to go to £150m market cap pretty sharpish after finance just based on very low expectations.

Nice article providing all the legislative and government support for mining operators, 2021 will the gold rush for Ethiopia and Kefi is in pole position:

https://www.theafricareport.com/56551/ethiopia-gold-mining-sees-record-growth-despite-covid-19/

“The government also gives several incentives to investors engaged in the mining sector.

This includes a 25% corporate tax rate and permits 10 years’ loss carry-forward, with royalties at 4% for industrial minerals, 5% for metallic minerals and 7% for gold, adding to being exempted from customs duties and taxes on equipment, machinery and vehicles crucial for mining operations.
So far, international mining companies, including Kefi Minerals, Sun Pick Ethiopia and Africa Mining, among others.”

All those loss carry forward and other benefits look to have been designed for Kefi.

Good times ahead.

I firmly believe the global mandating of E10+ globally is gathering pace and surely the rising tide will lift all boats regardless of shenanigans aboard:

“European ethanol demand will get a further boost next year if the UK rolls out E10 — a gasoline blend containing up to 10pc ethanol — as the standard grade at filling stations in September, as expected. “

Also Europe mandating E14

“Europe will once again have to look outside the region for ethanol supply, as biofuels blending mandates increase and the EU's recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) comes into effect in June. RED II will see renewables' share of transport fuels rise to a mandated 14pc.”

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2173134-viewpoint-eu-looks-to-imports-to-meet-ethanol-demand

Have a great New year (as best one can) and hope CNE gets itself into a proper outwardly global view and build those partnerships like Mitsubishi to get our tech all other the world!

Nice to see a nice round 50p at the year end. With Condor today with similar gold reserves as calibre, lower AISC by a $300 an ounze and and a target production not dissimilar by latter 2022/2023 Condor must be able to close the gap between Condors misery current £61m valuation vs £460m for Calibre. That gap will close and potentially with a good wind we might even surpass in 2023/2024 if we build to 5m ounzes. There is potential for a 10x from today over 3-4 years with a good gold price wind. Condor is getting very close to a big re-rate in Q1 imho so enjoy New Year (as best we can) as the New Year i think will be the catch up year.

For me the backdrop is so positive in 2021 i think it will cover up the cracks of CNEs lack of engagement in the financials and it CNe could be 5-10x todays price and nobody would think anything of it as that is £75m-£150m. The CNE tech stack is very strong but they appear still only growing in China and that is odd. The bigger issue for me today is CNE is 50%+ owned by a tight team so they control proceedings and for whatever reason are not exactly hitting the sweet spot on sharing company wins. The other issue i saw in interims is impairment charges that were higher, although nothing serious today but i understand it relates fo clients asking for a haircut on their bill for some reason but interims provided no background around this so only guessing. Really if CNE dont grab this once in a lifetime global transition to green energy it would be desperately sad. CNE said they moved to Hkex because UK aim investors never understood them but they are 70% down on their IPO so they can hide behind that anymore. I really really hoped the BOD would change their ways and i will have to just hope there is something in the idea that until all UK investors can trade again they will release some news but i fully expect all the great news to be buried in footnotes in the final results in March. I also have considered buying more but the management have not exactly engaged on any level so its hard to trust what their agenda is and i think all investors are probably in the same boat as this year they must hit £5m+ net profits and market cap is £15m. That is crazy but if BOD do not announce a dividend how can investors extract any rewards. I am really hopeful given interims that dividend was being actively discussed and share price went to 5.6 on hope but then slumped to 3.5 when no dividend announced. If they announce a dividend then we should be racing back to equivalent of 10p around IPO.

Arbitrage. Both German price and UK price is now roughly the same. The spread is quite wide in Germany on lower volume so we should always be 10% max difference before arbitrage is possible. Looking like the change of guard is going nicely with lots of ebbs and flows. A lot of sellers being met by a lot of new buyers so we are moving strongly and news avalanche is just around the corner. News all over world is flowing mandating all sorts of emissions targets and waste targets and Eqtec are in the cross hairs to benefit. We look to be hopefully able go hold 2.5 and then we should start to get institutional interest, if that is not already started. They only invest when company reaches £250m normally but some might jump the queue.

All things point to a great green future and E20+ could become the default globally. Its the obvious response to cleaning up the billion cars and trucks exhaust pollution. But why are CNE not feeding this news through their empty “industry news” channel. Why dont they release news via HKex like anyone else keen to elevate themselves amongst peers and grow sales internagionally and get noticed? CNE could be a £150m+ business today as they have everything in place. It does remind me of Eqtec pre the new management team. Eqtec was a disaster under previous management who had no clear strategy, overindulged in R&D and lacked transparency. It took a new management to take Eqtec from .1p to 2.5p in 18 months. Nothing really changed just the managements strategy was shared and was clear to all. As i said counties all over world will mandate E20 and that is a massive gravy train for the likes of CNE if they care to participate, however I worry a lot that CNE front of house and website is woefully short of what it needs to be. India clients will go to uk website and see broken pages and no news and makes CNE look almost defunct. The chinese website is not even linked from the UK website that the whole world is visiting. Foot in mouth is an understatement. CNE have the chance to go big but for some reason they enjoy shooting themselves in the head. Not a single won or even tended for out of China and its so obvious the BOD need to widen their senior management to include business people and balance the academics. The news with Mitsubishi is great and a RNS like that in UK would send CNE into orbit as revenue and positioning is great. Mitsubishi could buy CNE with change down the back of the sofa but at £15m market cap its not even worth it today with lawyer and finance teams probably costing more. Fortunately i do like undervalued companies but normally management are just as keen to do that. I have never in 15 years met a BOD that actively undermines itself and sucks the trumpet, so to speak. even Mr Bennett has gone quiet, probably from his own exasperation and really he should be leading the charge to sort out the big gaps.

German exchange ended day at 2.54p so still an arbitrage opportunity and personally expecting UK to tick up again tomorrow to reduce the gap. Companies with so much less going for them on every metric in cleantech are trading multiples of Eqtec so we have a good amount of catching up to do and suspect surpass them in 2021 as the wheat is separated from the chaff. Eqtec has bigger orderbook of numerous global peojects, bigger margins, more diverse input feed and clearly a mass market technology that can be sold just as well to a small factory as it can be to replace an regional incinerator. The market size is mind boggling and if Eqtec through its partners can get a global footprint i cant see many brakes on market cap growth. Apart from the logistics and lack of people in Eqtec i cant really see any other brakes and hiring and growing quickly i think are well within DP and teams skillset. I still think there are 1000s of projects globally available over coming 10 years if Eqtec has the energy.

The new regulatory environment in SA comes into force on 1st Jan 2021. Not only will this open fast track mining licenses and access to cheap loans for development direct from SA govt but from recent RNS, Kefi are actively expecting new licenses to be released. Maybe some news on this will also come in January alongside news of Hawiah upgrades and of course the elephant in the room, TK finance. Certainly the SA assets will simply get bigger and bigger and so quite under the radar and crowded out by general TK tooing and froing, long may that be put to bed!

“KEFI is pleased to note the recent developments of the Saudi Arabian mining laws and regulations, in-line with the Kingdom's Vision 2030 strategy. The Company has been actively engaged with the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources ("DMMR") to ensure that the previous exploration licences are processed once the new regulations come into effect from 1 January 2021. The issuance of the new regulations represents the end of a 5-year hiatus on the granting of exploration licences in the Kingdom, and marks the launch of an intended high-growth phase for the sector.

To this end, KEFI is also actively pursuing additional ground within the Kingdom that meets with KEFI's strategy of growing Gold & Minerals Limited ("G&M"), in which KEFI has a 34% interest, to capitalise on its position as the leading private sector exploration and development company in Saudi Arabia. Further details on licencing will be announced in due course.

Best advice ever is let the good ones ride and sell those dog shares. Too often investors become baggage handlers for below water investments and then top slice the golden eggs. Better to just clear the decks before the New Year and invest that money in companies that you believe in the management, the strategy and the macro environment. we all have them and now is the time to cut loose the detritus!

Not sure why they did not drop this or something else like a contract signing via an RNs through HKex if they wanted to seriously provide a xmas present. Anyway definitely positive but if they drop fantastic news in a footnote like they did with the interims announcing deals its a complete waste. BOD needs to trickle key news with comments from CEO etc and do this properly. This news had no comments and it was not even that clear what is agreed and what might be potential, although could be a translation issue but they could do a lot better. What we probably know is DoubleRiver dropped £2m on first few days and that stock is simply sloshing around the market until someone buys it up into long term hands. For me the BOD should have been on this immediately to mop up the excess stock and send the right signals. My concern is IPO disasters are not forgotten and investors simply stay away.

Fantastic day as we held and smashed 2p allowing those who wanted to get off the pony. Several nice pull backs but ending day around 2.25 which is a great base go build from. Just a little bit of news coupled with governments mandating each country deals with their own waste and we will be pushing forward. We have not even scratched the surface of the waste to energy market, not even slightly. Plenty of news go drop in the New Year.

I am sure this is very positive but will CNE shares flat the market begs to differ, or more likely only 10 people who have visited the home made CNE website know but no one else. If it was financially important i am sure they are legally obliged to tell the market or it could be construed as insider dealing as staff and BOD could buy on this knowledge. CNE can build the most efficient and competent Ethanol technology but if the company do not care to leverage this then its a family run business for them and not shareholders. One can only hope they announce a dividend as without that CNE are in serious trouble.

Ok 2.4 came quickly. Basically MMs now on the ropes. 2.5 for sure soon and then see how that feels. Certainly omens are strong to think about 3p today given Germany is up to 3.35p equivalent.

Germany trading at equivalent 3.3p so in my estimation a long way to go or Germany needs to give up a little but so far UK looks to be the one catching up. Lets see how day progresses but seems a good bet in favour of re-rate over day. L2 looking strong to move up to 2.4.

So we have Eqtec selling for .036 euros and .021 sterling. Something tells me arbitragers can make a killing so either UK will gap up today or Germany will catch a cold. Looks to me those in at 1.7 this morning will do rather well today as i suspect German buyers will turn their attention to UK market as it makes no sense same share costing 50% more in Germany. Happy to meet somewhere in the middle :)