Member Info for Simms45

While i would have hoped for some update in May it is not really surprising it will be June before an update. Realistically almost all news in entwined together and clearly he wants to make the announcement wholesale. We have not had any news to the contrary so we can only assume everything is on track for Jume AGM. Gold is riding at a high, plenty of new investment into Ethiopia showing confidence, government has $850m in coffers from recent Telecoms auction so liquidity in country is no longer an issue. Security is less of a problem than earlier this year and Abiys support is higher than ever. On the balance of everything the deal is very close and i suspect EG or Kefi will take up the remaining slack in the funding as we have all moving parts and again i suspect local investors have been partly the slow cog and really Harry should have not fallen into that long grass and hope it was mostly lip service. I am on view this is top big for the country to fail and we at last RNS it was the small £15m being a little loose from the scrum but it seems almost a silly amount to not be able to secure at this point when cash is everywhere looking for a home. Maybe Kefi is being a little greedy on its stake but anything post 65% is almost the deal of the decade for Kefi shareholders. Maybe news post bank holiday as with elections pushed back 3 weeks EG might want news as close to election ballot day as possible. We will see and gla as its been a pretty nail biting ride :)

Bought a few more as the benefit to shareholders is the money goes directly into Eqtec coffers as opposed to buying on the open market. Looks a strong surge so we could see a considerable bounce in a months time as that £15m becomes apparent how that can help Eqtec scale much faster and fill those gaps in the global team. The US for me is particularly interesting as a growth sector and so many financial closures we are waiting on so this cash can only assist in oiling the wheels. once we hit profitability this year this will look a shrewd move. Only small annoyance is why not have done this at 2.5p a few months ago but skeptics might think the shareprice pull back was orchestrated for institutions but we will see. Certainly a good floor and employees have options at 2.2p so i do not think anyone is worried in the medium term.

All funds are being ploughed into accelerating revenue growth and at a small discount todays price. While the price might linger around 1.5-1.6 short-term it can only accelerate the market cap in the medium term and reach targets sooner. I have always worried internal resources cannot keep track with order pipeline and this raise will help allay those worries and close down resource constraints and in particular ramp up US team and operations after Aries patent win. Also great to see Primary Bid allowing existing shareholders to take advantage. Gla and appears trajectory is back on for growth and should last us 12 months.

Next it will be tupperware parties and karaoke. Its unbelievable that i once got an email saying the lack of news releases was due to resources but somehow they can always find time to announce something you would probably not even post on your personal facebook page, let alone to your commercial clients and shareholders. While the company is technically in rude good financial health i have been flabbergasted for 12 months and nothing now really surprises me. It would all be ok if they announce a dividend, share buy back or something commercially astute and then they can post news about their latest knitting circle if they want. However its clear to me the duo at the top are up to something. They are doing everyrhing they can to not release commercial information and the Hkex are very clear they must do it quarterly or they will not be relisting anytime soon. we will be hitting that milestone soon so if we believe the chairman they are doing everything to get relisted they should be releasing commercial updates very soon. We will see.

Toll to me is now getting to point of now or never because we will be producing in 12-18 months and toll made most sense last year when it would have raised cashflow and market cap and meant less dilution. I suspect Calibre confidentiality covered other discussions and now Condor is loaded with cash either Calibre see logic to maximising their empty capacity or they are just taking cash off the table from their investors. Plenty of positive news expected regardless and maybe RB will take an offer for his shares.

Certainly gold is having a good run and inflation expectations and expected prolonger low interest rates gives a real hint about the direction of gold prices. Everything seems in a good place so those local investors need to decide now or never or Kefi will have to end up with a bigger stake or the EG but someone will step in to get this OTT :)

Seems the Abiy government timed the results of their mobile auction license quite close to elections for obvious reasons. They raised $850m from Voadfone consortium so pretty good. I wonder if the government are looking forward to announcing the next good news story creating the largest gold export private investment project in the country very soon. Must be close.
https://www.ft.com/content/63e0b8d0-34ed-4b9d-add6-67973c7f0838

One of strategies of Kefi i remember reading is the hub and spoke model where other miners from the area will bring gold to Kefi for processing. There is a lot of gold in that part of Ethiopia so while Kefi clearly has a vast area and increasingly so once the finance gets confirmed possibly other areas are held for local mining groups. We will see. Hopefully some news might be forthcoming next week as the license update could well be connected as part of the dealing going on in Ethiopia. Certainly if i was an investor i might offer an investment on basis Kefi also has considerable future gold to tap into to ensure the investment provides a long runway of 20 years etc. That might be part of it to make the deal more attractive for investors. Would certainly help i suspect. Something is happening as you dont have licenses update to pending payment by chance. It must have been triggered by some internal process.

Have to have a little giggle when you say the long hold until Q2 2022? Thats barely 10 months away by most reckoning. I am looking at 5 years minimum to see Eqtec to a multi-billion company and probably sold to the highest bidder within 3 years. I think the latter will happen once we financially close and get a dozen of these plants into production to prove the walk as well as the talk and just hoping Eqtec can now deliver a little bit more. I do wonder if Eqtec are not about to announce multiple projects closing. Such a great company to be invested in and while we are down 50% from the high i have full confidence we will eclipse in the next few months.

Have to say i am pretty certain Uskmouth will get planning eventually its just a question of time. Its interesting as the reason i did not originally invest, but have recently dipped in, was simply because too many eggs were stacked on too few projects and planning is notorious for delays and opposition groups slowing things down. Look at almost any large projects however beneficial and you have 5-10 years of planning issues. Anyway i think market cap today is very low and while my biggest concern is a firesale of some stock there is a good chance a new investor will be found as the tidal tech is very interesting and globally every coal power plant will be closing within 5-10 years so there is a massive market for retrofitting. We will see but i am looking at a 3-5 year investment to ride out and hopefully see Uskmouth and others come into use.

This is looks exactly like you might expect as part of the negotiation and clearly Kefi would not be applying for adjacent licenses if this deal was not about to land, same with all the dozens of small incidental details uncovered over the last few months. On their own it says very little but the cumulative impact has a strong narrative. Feels like the ducks are lining up and comfortable everything is traveling in the right way.

$1900 gold cant be far away as its $1884. this could trigger renewed interest globally in gold and perfect timing for bringing down the fence sitters who could well be making a Kefi investment. Certainly way up on the original $1250 gold that Harry was working with several years ago. Feeling more positive by the day and Copper is still over $10k a ton so things coming together nicely. At the very least Hawiah resource has doubled in value in the last 12 months but shareprice has not even factored Hawiah into the value. Market cap still at £42m? crazy. you can find two bit explorers worth more with nothing to show for it but some worthless samples. Crazy valuation that is about to get a rude awakening. Next week i think we get some news.

I was just focusing on hospitality as i have connections in London who have had to increase salaries to try and pinch staff to reopen so not do not have first hand experience elsewhere. Just anecdotal that the limitless supply of labour from Europe that has helped keep inflation low in the UK is now probably thin on the ground for many reasons and inflation is likely to rage later this year. However i still expect the BOE to keep interest rates low for a sometime to come as they will not want to create a housing price crash at this point. Throw in a little turmoil around the world and if the whales head for the doors on Bitcoin i think just £25bn is the free float on bitcoin and once it is gone the rest of the investors would need to wait for new speculators to enter to get out. Same thing largely happened a few years back. Price is down to $37k and i suspect if Tesla properly exit, if they have not already that would lead to a bigger collapse. Relevance to Kefi is there is a good backwind to rising gold prices just at the point local investors etc are all deciding.

I agree and think the government are applying the right amount of pressure to make this happen and this is probably a strategic play by EG to conclude this deal. What i am comforted by is we have many options to complete the deal in the allotted time but personally Kefi should have learnt by now to not rely on 3rd parties and control our own destiny. We have the anchor investors in place and bank finance and if Kefi offered to raise £15m there will be queue around the block as its the easiest double in a few weeks for the lucky few post finance. We will find out shortly but so far every day is a step closer to financial closure and its natural to have a little pressure when a lot is at stake for Kefi. Inflation has spiked to 1.5% just for starters. Dont ask what it might be later this year but anecdotally a lot of day to day prices are up and a lot of commodities have doubled and the trillions of printed cash is only just being spent and we have no workers from the EU to keep the wheels turning and wages are already rocketing in hospitality as we have no workers to fill the jobs. Inflation now we have no easy access to labour on tap is going to really start driving higher. $1870 gold is just a start in my view and investors in TK will be able to hedge their cash in gold so the markets are all on the side of the TK project. Nearly there :)

Seems Mr RB is still selling down his holding at 50p. On the plus side it gives anyone who has an interest a good entry point for a chance of exceptional returns but the sooner we get through this mild indigestion the better. Had RB not been selling we should have been well north of 60p so a good legup should happen soon. I guess its tough when Two billionaires are involved in Condor as maybe RB cant get all his own way.

Personally if any fund raising meant closing the project finance and Kefi was able to increase its stake in the project from 70% to 80% for an investment of £10-£15m then i do not think there is any shareholder that would not fully support that as we already have $50m in historic investment tied into this. We are very close and the recent comment has helped galvanise
everyone on the project to make this happen as the news was probably seen in all departments. There is positive news i suspect next week that will change everything.

i also have no idea how long these things take but procedures like this can take time but the recent RNS said they were doing it as fast as they can and the HKex have told CNEL they must release quarterly updates and from what i understand commercially relevant data which is exactly what we have all been asking. My hope is we get a proper shareholder update prior to going back into the Hkex to help set the right tone for strong growth over the coming financial year and make amends with shareholders who have every right to be angry. The company is fundamentally in rude health and sadly the question mark is really over the cosy duo at the top that have stayed hidden and kept information to themselves. This is the main issue that the HKex is tackling. We will find out what has gone on from the independent report but if they are found to be cleared, my expectation regardless of reality, then this must be the point the BOD radically shakes up their way of communicating and maximise the business opportunity as their is global demand at their doorstep. I agree with Topmoney that all investors should write to ivy and Richard Bennett to make them hear investors want change and if anyone has email addresses for the CEO and Chairman please share them. Personally i think a lot of investors have already done this including contacting the HKex and this could have helped this process starting. While in the short-term it is not pleasant in the medium term it could be transformative as i have never come across a company doing so well who are so secretive and doing everything they can to sabotage their market valuation. Its a good warning sign that even if you own 60% of the company with your family you cant ignore other shareholders as you will come unstuck. If they had been transparent from day 1 this would probably all have been averted. The mind boggling issue for me is if they have over £25m in equity that could all be paid out as dividends (more than market cap of company today) and if they announced a tiny £10m special dividend (with a bit of borrowing) they would get £6m cash and everyone would slap them on the back and in this case probably shareholders might accept their hermit existence but today shareholders are being fleeced not just because dividends are not being announced but also the BOD are purposely sabotaging the shareprice for whatever end i have no idea. The BOD have money coming out of everywhere so they certainly do not need to do any shady deals. we will see but i am expecting a company update as per the quarterly report expected as part of HKex demands and hope this sets in motion a change of approach.

Simec has been on my radar for sometime and always liked what they were doing. The shareholding is at a decent enough size that will have investors interested but the issue of the >30% stake might be problematic but potentially two investors, possibly including Simec Atlantis itself could buy 13% while another investor takes 30% so there are many ways around forcing any buyer to not have to make a takeover offer. However it does depend how long and hard the current 43% investor is going to fight this and that potentially that could be a drawn out process if they can find a way. Clearly they do not want to sell today. The other scenario is that an investor will not be found and similar to how i have seen other forced sales it will all depend on the amount of debt owed as the liquidators only care to recover the debts and while they might say they want to maximise value as soon as they have power to sell some shares they probably will but suspect Simec management will be working now to find a new anchor investor. However its a major stake and my overall expectation is a new investor will be found as Simec are perfectly placed for a power company or even someone like BP to come along as it is loose change and these companies need to massively move out of fossil fuels. Today in Guardian gives a sense of how quickly fossil fuels might get smashed over next 10 years to the point there is no oil or coal based mining at all in the western world so these companies need to diversify quickly for their own sake so Simec i think has a long way to go yet and potentially positively. However short-term i suspect some turbulence.

Well done to anyone who got some stock at 1.9. I suspect theres a good chance of a positive end to the day once the small print is digested so close to funding news. would a company really put out such positive commentary as they did not need to.

I have to say the one very big catalyst will be Cacao and if the models are right and we have bonanza grade gold along 4km strike this will be major news and change the whole proposition of Condor. Certainly Mark is very conservative but i always sense excitement in the past when talking about Cacao and surely within the next few weeks we should start to get some update how those assays are coming along. Perhaps some data is known and waiting for additonal data before releasing. Certainly in the absence of a to deal moving from 2m to 5m is the way to go while we await further updates on mine and land. Certainly feels Condor are about to move up to 60p and beyond simply on basis many ground level work progressing. I hope also Ross has sold down whatever stake he was selling as i guess that held up proceedings but does feel very solid and while the weak explorers in last few months have felt the cold Condor has been solid showing a strong investor base not budging. Couple of good weeks ahead i sense.