Member Info for Simms45

Looking increasingly positive with all the ground staff hires by TKGM in Ethiopia and full backing of EG that i am expecting some positive news pre the EG elections and prior to 21st June. Level 2 also looking that we might see ASK move higher as we look to be very very close.

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Could be last chance to buy under 2p ever today! We really are into the countdown to updates pre AGM on 21st June and further news in July that should take us considerably higher, Harry thinks £300m but happy to meet half way:) Really feels that everything continues to move forward at pace.

Nice how Kefi will own 100% of exploration licenses all around TK. Hub and spoke model will be very nice allowing Kefi to ship ore to the main mine for processing and share revenue with TKGM. We will easily have a 20 year plus mine churning out 190k ounces a year. The maths is pretty impressive when gold is 1900 and AISC are $800 making 1100 per ounze or $210m per year before taking into account our 75-80% stake and debt costs but Harry has said $100m to Kefi bottom line so assuming gold stays the same a pretty there is a good margin to play with (and this assumes gold does not go higher). Put another way would you invest £40 today to potentially back around £60 every year for a very long time starting in about 2 years time. Not a bad investment when banks might offer you 40p a year for life on £40 at 1% interest. The risk/reward is still still high as their is mo guarantee but it is closing drammatically by the day.

Bear in mind Harry has grown Kefi from a £4m company up to £40m today and could possibly reach £400m in a few years. Yes a lot of dilution along the way including himself. In worst scenario he almost had no skin in the game. he is hardly a beneficiary so far and rightly so. Harry is now on the cusp of a major milestone and this bonus is to help align his motivations as if he can take Kefi to a £100m and then £400m asset over 6 and 36 months then he should be rewarded accordingly. I think the bar is set a little low as 3/4/5p is pretty trivial targets but share price is a key factor for some shareholders and having already confirmed no dilution before finance sorted we wait but it could be a matter of weeks to get more positive news to take us higher. Does feel we are in the final stages of the long overdue re-rate but what Harry is doing is a pretty incredible outcome if we can do with no dilution. That will have enormous returns if that is achieved. I was personally happy for Kefi to raise last £15m in equity and move on as the market would lap it up and speed this process as we have most of the money and seems we are now closing deal to find last shareholders to join the TKGM party.

in his most recent call he said 18 months from last month so we are looking at early 2023. I think given the Sag mill is about to arrive in the country and he was in Tuscon literally about to go ahead with the company for engineering he is very firmly looking to expedite the matter. As to the toll there is more than enough ore to go around and there is Mako as well as Calibre so given both are now in the mix and lacking ore there is a little competition. I think the rush to get the "producer" badge is possibly that Condor cant do a toll deal until that is OTL and if i am right then that 30 day window is closing fast. If we become a producer then we can ship ore. I think this will coincide with the final 4% of land being resolved that could also be one of the issues for the toll. i do not know exactly but potentially it needs to be managed well so that locals see the mine will be built and not for Condor to just ship it elsewhere as i suspect that is not possible for the social license. Remember also Calibre were specifically asked by Rio Tinto to find investments for them and so far they have done very little, even when Calibre would be due a 10% bounty on any deal so it would be shooting themselves in the foot for Calibre to not have a better relationship given that First Majestic are also now on the scene. if Calibre are really trying to sweat Condor it is frankly a waste of time as Condor now have a clear pathway to production so the days of maybe a cheeky offer are non existent now. my view is that Calibre, if they have any intention to do a deal in 2023 with Condor, will make a move now to do a toll deal once they legally can and potentially tie in some way with Condor to give them that opportunity. I have said many times that Condor will not sell for less than £1.50 at an absolute bare minimum due to management windfall at this share price and that seems a very very conservative price now that we are in the position we are probably going to strike some high grades on Cacao and work ourselves up to 5m ounzes. If Cacao is the continuation of the La India vein then it will be big news. Things will take off very rapidly. I feel we are getting very close to the step change we expect as so many factors are falling into place. GLA

When you compare Kefi to almost any other mining company there is a huge discount based on where we are. For example Kodal minerals are well followed but are literally many years (at least 5 probably) from any feasible production and massive dilution ahead of them and barely scratched 350k ounzes of gold but worth £48m today. Kefi on the other hand is around 5+ years ahead of them with 7 times the resource just for gold but valued today at £39m with almost everything in place. i can only conclude the market has a very high risk attached to Harry that i think the market has some form on but it is clear that this is about to change. The more you look around at comparable gold or copper explorers the more you see just how under-the-radar Kefi are. Lets look forward to some further news pre the 21st June webinar.

I agree that some news before webinar on the 21st is a strong contender especially with AGM the following week Harry deadlines very tight now and we have CFO also saying the same timelines. Could well release some RNS that helps nail that flag to the top of the mast and then we can look to the horizon again. At £39m market cap there is a massive upside here. Just first year of production Harry is saying $100m of free cashflow to play with. Now is a good time as any to build a decent position as come newsflow things will move very quickly. Even though i have only been in 18 months it feels like a long time but every month more is achieved on the ground and that has meant the company has moved on at an incredible speed while we await the key moment we can take that intake of breath.

Todays interview with Harry is very confident, if a little downbeat on the market valuation of £35m today vs his comparison with comparables at production of £300m so big gap to fill. Key to everyone is some RNS that tangibly closes the TK finance or brings it within 80% confidence to start to close some of that gap and that should be this month according to Harry interview. News that they have loans in place from existing investors and no capital raise at all until TK is tied up is incredible news and will close down those who think otherwise. Those investors are not advancing cash without full confidence of next steps. All in all we are in a great place at a great time in Kefis 15 year history from 2006. GLA and look at incredible progress made on the ground last 12 months. Kefi is a very different company today.

Realistically this has always been a 2-5 year investment so its good to see those dissapointed that finance might take a month longer have moved on and let other investors join. So far for me the company on the ground have done an incredible job on potentially taking Kefi stake from 45% of 145k ounzes a year to possibly 70% of 190k ounzes and our equity into this deal is the $60m of sweat equity to date. Therefore unlike almost every other raise requiring equity we are converting and have agreements from imvestors that this is our investment. I appreciate some of that will be Harry emoluments but we get it all back as equity in project. Hawiah was just a possible project but within 1 year we have found so much copper and gold we are already working on a BFS. For all of Harrys slippage one thing he has not slipped are the fundamentals. Focus on this board is heavily about personal attacks on Harry or funding delays but if you look at processes that are under hid control he has done a pretty solid job. The TK finance deal is incredibly high jinks as Harry is not simply tapping investors for £50m and job done he is trying to construct an incredible feat of financial plate spinning. More credit should be due as i would say most gold explorers would never try and pull this off and just raise all cash from investors. We will still get a raise but the CFO has already stated no fund raise until after TK finance OTL. I am expecting a raise to make that finance happen as we are barely $15m short, peanuts in a $320m deal. Projects take time and if Harry pulls this off as i suspect he will, he should financially benefit. i agree with others shares would be more appropriate but this is no ordinary deal it will be a major win and if he does it then Harry and team should be rewarded. We will see but while TK has clearly created a lot of distracting noise underneath is a behemoth in the making. We should get some more key news this month and i suspect some decent traction will transpire as you cant keep an asset like TK or Hawiah down forever over a finance package that i am not sure has been pulled off before in a frontier country. GLA

I remember the Primarybid raise at .5p and we flatlined for months while flippers took their profits only for share price to surge afterwards on fair weather newsflow. We have exponential pipeline that is as big as DP can build a team around and for me its always been about resources as demand is massive and increasingly so as energy and waste are in the pincher position as they appear to be getting to. The resources issue is being tackled but Imagine what will happen when all of the potential news expected starts to come in. we must be due some biggies this month.

While i think the performance payments set the bar relatively low shareholders will see a £40m company transformed into a £400m business over next few years so however you incentivise senior managers at least it is specific to key events that will make all shareholders considerably better off and transformational for the Kefi. The worse performance targets are those less clear or even profits and so forth as you often witness senior managers make short term cost cutting exercises only to suffer in the long-term. Everything is moving forward and overall targets are still on track.

Its a pretty standard clause in every financial report to cover their backs and say that if company cant raise money they go bust. certainly Kefi has for 10 years raised capital successfully and in far less favourable times and that is true of almost all companies not making profits. When you look at the fundamentals and net profit this has a very very large multiple. Remember the NPV barely accounts for the real size of TK or Hawiah which are both much larger but even NPV at top end of 10x todays market cap. Wait until the Hawiah update on how big that is and further drilling at TK to increase gold ounzes. Sure risks exist but we would be 10p so risk/reward is the name of the game and suspect no one here is looking at 10% gains in next 12 months and more like 5x gains.

No fundraise until execution of TK finance conpleted :) Good to get that confirmed!

“Upon execution of the Tulu Kapi project finance plan, KEFI will replenish its working capital, launch full development at Tulu Kapi and also underpin at least the next 12 months of planned exploration in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia.”

Subject to the approval of KEFI shareholders, the Company has been positioned to, as soon as possible after the Annual General Meeting, bring in c. $320 million of funds to fully develop Tulu Kapi and to finance exploration in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia. The plan would leave KEFI with project ownership levels as follows:

· 75-80% of the Ethiopian mining development and production operation, via the shareholding in TKGM

· 100% of the Ethiopian exploration projects, via the shareholding in KME

· 34% of the Saudi development and exploration projects, via the shareholding in G&M

Using Net Present Valuation (NPV) methodology in respect of Tulu Kapi and Hawiah (and excluding Jibal Qutman given its regulatory status), these levels of beneficial interest indicate combined NPV's as follows for KEFI shareholders comparing the results at consensus long-term prices and prevailing spot prices (refer Footnotes) is $259-465 million or £187-339 million, as at 2021 start of construction at Tulu Kapi.

While Kefi is known for a little slippage over the years we have concrete progress shown, 150 staff employed, compensation in motion, contractors going on site in July and commissioning of plant on track for q4 2022. This is factual and shows tangible progress. Kefi is about to become a mjaor producer in Ethiopia and its all but written down. Yes some more paperwork but its the tangibles that actually show proof.

Harry looks to have pulled off the gold deal of the decade with everything in place for June AGM signoff. This update is exactly what shareholders needed. See you on the other side!

ethanol now at 2.48. Up 76% since start of year. If that does not increase order pipeline and bring some projects forward i am not sure what will.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/ethanol#:~:text=Ethanol%20is%20expected%20to%20trade,0.79%20in%2012%20months%20time

This is excellent news. Looks that the old secretary is being made the scape goat as frankly it was their job to keep the stock exchange and shareholders updated. Of course it take two to tango but the secretary failed their only role so new secretary will certainly not hopefully make the same mistake. Certainly the new secretary should come out guns a blazing. Certainly there looks to be a start of promising changes but i think more additions to the BOD are needed to guarantee that communication tango is completed as our duo at the top i suspect will not change their spots.

while some update would be welcome at same time i understand most news is connected in that bank finance is contingent on equity. I stand by the old adage of no news is good news. As far as investors are concerned no news in May made me confident the BOD are in the closing stages or they would have been legally required to state otherwise. The finance will close at some point as over £2bn of gold is waiting to be dug up as a starter with AISC of $800-$900 an ounce. Hawiah is going to be far bigger and more valuable than TK in medium term so this is a nice backstop as this alone once the PFS is done in the next quarter will be worth more than the current market cap so you can argue TK is in free. The upside massively outweighs the downside so for me there is less risk overall.

Cogs are still turning in the background so that is key. With AGM 3 weeks away we can hope things are culminating. While the recent incorrect comment by the minister caused some issues it could well have galvanised government support and could have ultimately benefited Kefi if EG provided assurrances to key investors and might well have been co-ordinated. Lets keep ears to the ground on any new information but quietly confident that moons are aligning on this deal.