Member Info for Simms45

Incredible how responsive and quick investor relations has responded over the last 12 months to investor questions and quickly close down concerns. Very impressive and feeling confident we are reaching financial close. Onwards and upwards.

The Addis Fortune is one of the main English speaking Ethiopian newspapers and the reporter is an employee of Addis Fortune. I suspect a lot is correct as there is quite a big of detail. Nearly there but always loose ends i suspect.

While its only done when everyone signs and this might creep to the end of the month my original expecation was mid August but things move slowly. We can hope the snippets coming through might mean we get the news we all want next week. Certainly the bank finance and corner investor appears to have happened. Shareprice is doing a little dance but so far everything is evolving. The trouble in the north is very very far away from TK and the TPLF paramilitary who used to run a dictatorship in Ethiopia has almost no support and they they will ultimately exhaust their options and disappear in time. I am sure their own people are fed-up and just want to live peacefully. Ethiopia compared to most mining countries in Africa is very positive significant growth and improvement of living standards in last 5 years. We press on and i sense we are in sight of the finishing line. All those jobs advertised need somewhere to go and they would not have listed a dozen jobs a few weeks back without the nods and winks.

From what we gather from the numerous small leaks along the way we have the banking finance in place and presumably we are getting each investor signed up with no doubt slowness of legal processes but we must be down to the last few points and Kefi must be pushing hard. Everything is on track and while its always nice for investors to get fluffy updates frankly i am happy if kefi just put their heads down and push on and then simply give us a one liner. its done!

Its a great update today and a lot has been achieved in the last 6 months in all honesty so everything is motoring ahead as fast as a mine being built in Nicaragua can be i suspect. THE Hanlon FS level designs are due by the end August 2021 according to update and they are responsible for the engineering designs, the capital cost and operating costs of the processing plant. We are on track for financing later this year and plenty going on in the background no doubt to button down the last of the land and start to build our ounzes and the long awaited BFS that should really give Condor a new lease of life as we are relying on quite old data and the new data should be much better. Lots happening and todays price is a steal but that has always been the case but investors know the key time to jump in is before strategic news and it must happen before the end of this year. Still a little unsure of the outcome of submitting our mining license to become a producer which i had hoped would tick some more boxes. Been here a few years and very happy how things are progressing, albeit we would all like to be sooner but this is the nature of the beast. big projects like this involving a lot of parties take a lot of time. The monumental amount of time buying all the land must have been a serious job in itself and a miracle we are down to the last holdouts. MC has taken this project and pushed it as hard as he can.

its still incredible to imagine that we are still only a £40m market cap company and we could be very close to a $300m funding deal on a 12 year epic gold mining prospect with no dilution to shareholders as our $60m of historic sweat equity will be our investment. We could end up with a 200k ounzes a year gold mine within 2 years throwing off more cash well in excess of our market cap today and conservative dividend of 2p for starters. Hawiah is easily worth more than £40m alone as a standalone investment proposition and we have a fast track plan with Artan to go forward with this project also. The mind boggles as we are so far from fair value on confirmation of funding. Will be interesting to see where we land a week after the confirmation followed by a BFS on Hawiah. That will be interesting as it will probably take a week or two just to get to a fair holding value. Update could be any day now but still happy as long as updates keep us moving forward.

it does seem odd to me that those with savings are losing around 3.5% per annum when inflation is 3.5% and savings interest is .1% and this is likely to quicken over the coming years. You would think gold should be in ascendency in these circumstances. i am not entirely surprised with the Condor share price as it moves on very low volumes in both directions. With First Majestic investing indirectly at 50p and so much to come i stay positive that by the year end we will be well north of today. August is generally a quiet month but hoping MC is going to stick to his plan and continue releasing news over this month and ideally some that are a bit more structurally important.

There is plenty of dry powder to come this year but would be nice to see some of it being used so that it all feels that we are on track for financial close later this year and a fast-track mine build. Confirming last land ownership would do wonders along with some bonanza strikes on Cacao to give the market a feel that the 5m ounzes are in sight. Plenty to come but MC is steady and sure and that is the main thing. If the mine can be operational within 2 years that would also be great to know so we get the countdown in place and close the gap with Calibre valuation as we have better grade and more proved ounzes so there is plenty to play for. There is a chance the mine could be built sooner and that would really do wonders. A Mako or Calibre toll would send Condor into orbit as cashflow is what it is all about.

I think Harry is keen not to trickle piecemeal RNS news as there are a lot of moving parts. its all done when everyone signs and as someone on this board likes to remind is until there is some investor cash in the kitty. We have banks, arguably the most important piece of the Jigsaw, as it appears, as they are by far the hardest to convince as they literally get only a small interest payment on the loan (albeit probably quite large by UK standards) and the cornerstone investor. If i was Harry with his past performance on RNS it would be heads down until its done and move on. He has presumably orchestrated this small news trickle in the meantime. Hopefully August is the month and highly likely this week as he has pushed early August, which in Harry language means mid August or probably later. Really cant grumble as if this comes off will go down in gold mining financing folklore.

The way i see if is that in 3 years, assuming we are in production within 2 years, our free cashflow could pay out up to 40p a share in a dividend (albeit dilution will probably impact a little) and while it will probably not be that high as miners tend to invest more and pay off debt i sense the likes of MC and JM leaning on the dividend route as they will surely both be offshore so tax free and apart from selling Condor the quickest way to release good levels of cash. I think you can then base the shareprice on yield. Lets says its 20p dividend in year 3 and yield of 8% then we should be around £2.50. obviously plenty of room for issues along the way but i also consider this fairly conservative as looking from DCF model with a 5m ounze and 25 year mine life and 200k ounzes you are looking a different ballpark. We are getting close to a decent re-rate just disappointed the toll is not part of the mix and Calibre will probably pay a price for that unfriendly kick in the back but in many ways we will have plenty of suitors at the right time and once we get closer to the £1.50 goldilocks share price when i think things will hot up on that front. Would still be nice to agree a toll as it just brings in cashflow sooner and we are not short of high grade ore. Plenty to go around.

Kefi will be in a closed period signing documents with investors (including EG) for TK so it is understandable that not only will Harry be knee deep in work along with his finance director but it would be too problematic for Kefi if Harry dropped any hints pre financial closure. He was also involved in last one so its also fair for Harry to not participate this time around as its largely a back scratch exercise to EG to promote inward investment to the country. Its heads down until its all signed off and then you can expect some trumpets. We should hear something this week but having no update so far is good news as any major chinks in the plan would need to br shared and we are still marching on. Exciting times for Kefi holders as Hawiah update is not far off so either news will have a galvanising effect on comfidence.

Over last 6 months has been an astonishing amount of nuggets that show the real direction of travel but this level of senior hires is clearly another big hint. i have a feeling sometime next week we will get some positive news. Not entirely sure but we are inching closer and as long as these small pieces of the puzzle continue to slot into place we are all good. Great opportunity for those not already topped up to an inch of their life. Must have a looksie down the back of the sofa as this is almost so under the radar at the moment.

Good to see some traction back as my latest for news based on early August would be 15th In all fairness but so far everything looks to be a perfect storm. Cant really see any major issues like before if everyone agreed last month to do the deal. Even a small wobble i expect Kefi to be able to do a placing to seal the deal and move on. can see tuppence coming quickly back into sight as limited stock on the market.

Well done for getting any response from Ivy, but it will be towing the party line. I think CNEL is powering ahead fundamentally so on a numbers game i am pretty relaxed but concerned what the duo are up to as they cant be trusted and need much closer oversight. I think the general one upmanship on E10 is very helpful as peer pressure will raise the chances China will hit that E10 target as they pulled back and obviously India are way out ahead. climate conference later in year so could be updates on Ethanol blends by then. ethanol is such an easy win az governments do not need to do anything except mandate the change. Easier to do than agree more nuclear and renewable energy projects. the wait for relisting will go on.

Is this a guessimate? Was reading this morning UK rolling out E10 in September and no turning back. Along with many other global nations moving to E10 it is the start of global changeover that will need 100s, if not 1000s more Ethanol production facilities being built globally. Come on non-execs lets force the BOD to update properly.

i have several investments in unlisted companies but i only do that on rare occasions where not only do i love the company product but more importantly have a very open and transparent BOD and they are as eager as PIs to see their companies valuation rise. Generally the plan is that within 5 years they get acquired or list themselves or pay a dividend. I do not think CNEL will delist as the fundamentals will get them out of this as $10m profit this years buys a lot of "get out of jail free cards". The non execs do have strong powers in certain circumstances. i personally take Richards positive comment last month that he sees light at the end of the tunnel as key as he had no reason to post this. of course should CNEL delist there would be big trouble for the BOD but its actually hard to know what would actually happen as they are Chinese company domiciled in Jersey listed on HK. It is hard to know. Certainly while they own maybe 60% there are enough shareholders who would strongly oppose such an action but again it is hard to say. As you say if the bod was found with their hand in the till the Chinese tend to chop them off so the BOD would be the stupidest on this planet when they could simply announce a £4m dividend any day, launch the shareprice to $1 and both the BOD could walk away with $1m each the easy way. they could do this every year for a long time to come. I honestly cannot imagine they have seriously been on the fiddle in China of all places as they simply have no reason to. CNEL are literally drowning in cash and projects as we have seen CNEL throwing cash around like confetti and many contracts. For me we need new board members and oversight and to force the first dividend OTL.

Smells good to me :)

We also have gold price ascendency finally and a change in gold sentiment. The US & World is printing money like there is no tomorrow with expected dollar weakness for sometime and all key ingredients for a gold rally over next few years. Throw in likelihood that interest rates are not going to change anytime soon we have real savings rate well into mid digit negative territory. All this to quietly help governments erode the value of their government debt. How else can the UK govt pay off the £1.4trillion of debt, certainly not by tax rises as it does not even touch the sides. It will be good old fashioned sustained inflation and low interest rates and bobs your uncle that £1.4trillion can be put on the government creditcard in 10 years time, however a lot of people will be switching to swissie and gold. Will be 5% inflation by end of year. I am seeing wage inflation in tech of 20% and builders up similar due to loss of euro workers who filled roles. Covid and brexit will smash inflation records at this rate. There is going to be stellar profits from TK at this rate!

The only update was Richard Bennett who said positive things but have to say that time is elapsing and there was some feeling trading might resume in July. The lack of serious business update is dispiriting as it impacts returning to the HK exchange if they do not provide clear and transparent updates. The company results are stellar, the tech is stellar, the future Ethanol market is booming with E10 going global quickly, Ethanol price booming. Everything is in place but for the fact we have 2 people at the top with huge ownership with their friends and they appear to have a very low opinion of fellow investors. its odd as why on earth did they move to the HK exchange and all the cost and trouble involved if they actually just wanted to run a private business where the only people they need to answer to is themselves. They should have perhaps on the UK exchange just made an open offer to shareholders and gone private. They simply never did and possibly never will understand the purpose of a stock exchange as they simply do not use it to their advantage. They could be a $100m company at least buying competitors with paper and expanding but they languish at close to a valuation of net assets and means they have 0 chance of buying anyone. More likely companies will look to acquire CNEL. We sadly just need to wait but as i have said before they need to do a lot of groundwork to make that return a positive step.

There is a lot more banter on Telegram if your interested but I think everything that can be laid on the table has and those on the side of financial closure have staked their claim and those who think Harry is a charlatan have sold and hopefully moved on to pastures greener. Never healthy to dwell on past decisions that did not turn out how you wanted but better to learn from that experience and make better future decisions. It is just a waiting game for all signatures and processes to happen and that is unfolding as we speak but slowly no doubt. Key is that things are moving forward and given the wait for some investors they are probably not concerned if it happens July or early August as Harry said it would be end of July and early August so really expecting 1st or 2nd week of August in all honesty. I expect a lot more activity when investors spot the opportunity.