Member Info for Simms45

You have to bear in mind he was openly stating all investors were meeting up in October last month and i suspect some investors were on the call. I am pretty sure he would be saying all those things if in fact those investors had not even agreed to that meeting. I am as miffed and disappointed as anyone but Harry cant be openly making this up in front of his investors and lawyers and everything he says must be validated in some way or another. The mood music will quickly change when the locals are talked around and given government are starting proper on 4th October and Harrys actual bonus plan that we all questioned relating to his backstop of 31st December does make you think he had a better idea of the real schedule of events, which always brings me back to why Harry did not say originally it would be back end of November or December but if Harry does not hit that target by 31st of December he misses his first bonus and will surely then miss all further bonus payments. I really hope the shareholder call on the 13th includes him firmly stating all bod will not take any salary imcluding Cyprus consulting payments and that we will not have a placing before TK financing. He stated this many times when he thought it was October and we have loans in place but Harry has got to be seen to be taking a hit to his own pocket as this should and could have been resolved behind closed doors. If he can state those things and get an RNS out that locals are back onside and not going to change their tune then we will quickly get back to 2p. Hawiah alone PFS is due in next month or so and that is a bigger resource than TK by far and their will be surely no issues as Artan are massive in Saudi and Saudi government are keen to provide lending. still a good chance this will all turn out well. Still holding firm and think we are grossly undervalued just on Hawiah alone but Harry is a bit of a liability over promising and under achieving and he should fix that.

150k shares bought after hours so hopefully more buyers are on the way. With Stagflation on the way gold has always dont well in these environments so we should start to see sentiment change.

The lack of clarity in the RNS was unbelievably poor judgement as it has allowed the camp fire talk to spiral. That is why Harry rushed out a directors talk as i suspect Harry was not able to elaborate in an RNS for whatever reason. If its correct a small contingent of locals want more benefits thats fair as i cant remember a mine being built that did not have these issues, although i thought this was in the past and given the absolute importance Harry should have handled this. Take it at face value or not but the map you refer to has not been changed for a while so its nothing new and there has been no actual security concerns according to Harry on any other level but again the poor delivery hardly helped. Harry has handled this badly and he knows it and there are many theories why this happened in the way it did. there are probably 5 theories thrown around today. I am still of the opinion it does centre around some locals wanting more as Harry states and he was not able to quell the issues before the interims. Personally maybe he should have delayed the interims in the hope he could sort the issue but maybe it was not so easy. All we know is we are all now in a position to buy in at a penny last seen 2 years ago. I find it also hard to understand tha if Harry was as close as he said he was and October was actually happening then he should have moved heaven and earth to make it happen. Therefore you also cant help but this this RNS was also an attempt to pass a further delay elsewhere. Certainly Harry really does need to double down and turn this around. I do understand his opaqueness if this is around folded cash in envelopes and he was not wanting to be party to it and flagged up to the government to put a stop to it as i guess he cant really say that in an RNS or on a update call. We can hope Harrys broadside brings this quickly to our favour as Harry suggested it might. We have not seen a penny for a good few years so make of it as you want as a good exit and as some will say still a good exit.

There needs to be some pespective here. As far as the actual details are presented we are facing up to 3 months delay on starting development of the mine so that should mean around 1-2 months for financial close and in the meantime whatever the security issues are these must be top priority to resolve (certainly they appear quite opaque so i suspect this is all about money). When that resolution RNS arrives the pendulum will swing very promptly. We have confirmation that ground works have been happening and we have cash and lending available that with the BOD taking a rain cheque on salaries and cutting costs should still mean we get over the line. Plenty has been achieved and these characters who have popped up will disappear for one reason or another. You simply cannot expect plain sailing in this type of project as this has always been high risk. if it was not a high risk project we would be far north of 4p today but this is the risk/reward profile we have. Delays have not been good and Harry does himself no favours but we are where we are and if you believe in the Ethiopian government want the largest export revenue to start, and whom hold 20% of the project, and we have bank funding signed off then perhaps look at this in the cold light of day. I also understand it is totally warranted to be upset with how things have progressed and a lot of people will be underwater but as has happened in the past that can change in a moment and the mood will change just as it always has done.

If Harry was not aware of any local situation a few months ago and this just came up then I hope that he is working to get this resolved asap. For locals to push back like this there is a sense that financial closure was getting close to triggering or the locals would not have strategically tried to extract additional benefits over what had been agreed and we were told many times by Harry that the locals were all on board and as eager to move forward as Kefi so who are these locals exactly? You might expect other locals and those who were in line for jobs to potentially get involved as the delay will be costing a lot of local families dearly and communities are probably quite close knit. Momentum is key and we can only hope Harry responds with better update in October and solves this issue as it cant be beyond him to and his team to get this resolved. Questions do need to be asked as to what Harry knew about this before and why it has come up at the 11th hour. There was certainly no concerns as recently as 30 days ago with everything in place according to Harry. Certainly feels the fall is a little knee jerk but a nice entry price to build from.

https://www.***************************/kefi-gold-and-copper-chairman-explains-security-concerns-at-tulu-kapi-gold-project-interview/4121025451

Directors talk is about specifics relating to some locals making specific demands so not sure what to make of it but we have always been told things are positive with locals. You would expect this to be resolved.

Harry refers to development start and not financial close so if development is to begin this year we still need financial close asap.

Pipeline growth is now so big they are refraining from reporting this today but the pipeline growth went from 41 t0 75 in last update and presumably somewhere close to 100 today. The key this time is that they have invested in the team to work on converting these projects into fruition. Today Eqtec reported they have a massive 17 specific projects under construction or under development anf this up from 2 in 2020. This demonstrates that Eqtec are not only getting on top of their pipeline backlog but actually ramping things up. This is a huge indication of just how vertical this company is gong in revenue and we have not even started with the global demand that is almost unimaginably large. Very exciting times for Eqtec holders as we head into latter quarter where we should see the remainder of the revenue come in and set the share price on a trajectory worthy of Eqtecs global importance.

I think you need to consider Condor are aiming to get up and running asap and expand the project from cashflow. If condor can get operational on 100k or less they will do that as quickly and cost effectively as possible as the cash will flood in. The PFS just underlines what a incredible project we are sitting on not the immediate plan as its far quicker and cost effective now we have the mine license to crack on. Shame so far the toll has not been inked as that would add 50% or more to share price and really should be no1 strategy to minimise dilution.

Evergrande is the tip of the iceberg of trillions of bad debts in construction and elsewhere so while China will probably pick up the tab more will follow and how far will China go to save them all. Property prices in China are dropping and most construction companies were already debt laiden 10 years ago and just about living because house price rises saved them and allowed them to meet interest payments. When house prices go into reverse its the whole pack of cards coming down. Could be a key moment for gold to start rising.

With a good wind we might get the Hawiah PFS in October prior to Kefi financial close. Gold edging up on jitters to Evergrande meltdown and Ethiopia looking pretty calm as things go in that neck of the woods. If anyone gets wind of the assembled investors heading to Ethiopia in October (as Harry mentioned) then we could be into the final stages. At this rate we could have two mines operational in 2023. Now that would be an outcome.

I also wonder as Evergrande potentially collapses and puts the financial system under strain if gold will come into demand as a safe haven. Gold seems to be held just below $1800 but could repercussions from this and potentially dozens, if not 100s of zombie Chinese companies about to come home to roost?

I am assuming we start with the 100k ounze project and mine the easy gold in Mestiza and we know Capex on that is around $100m tops and i think a lot less given this probably excludes land we have already acquired and mill. If that is the case then $25m (£20m) raise so maybe a 30% dilution which is very small when that will drive $100m in first year of mining. Maybe i am wrong but this is at current market cap. If toll or final land purchase can be achieved the market cap could be 50% higher or more and then dilution is even less. Also the raise is for entirely positive events to build the actual mine so on the day we do raise the shareprice will re-rate and i would prefer to be before the raise than after as we are so undervalued on every metric. We will see.

RNS today shows we are sitting on a world class gold base with 3.6m true width at 29 gt gold. That is incredible and you can expect that overtime we will find it elsewhere. Keep up the drilling program and lets head towards the 5m district. So far everything business wise is moving in the right direction.

the wait continues. In the meantime i was reading corn production in China is much improved on last year so potentially helpful to ensure input costs of Ethanol maximise margin.

http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/18567/usda-maintains-2021-undefined22-forecast-for-corn-use-in-ethanol

“Foreign corn production for 2021-’22 is forecast higher when compared to last month, with increases for China and Argentina more than offsetting reductions for Russia and Serbia. China corn production is raised with a boost in yield prospects, based mostly on near to above normal rainfall in the key Northeast provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Liaoning. Argentina corn production is raised based on expectations of higher area.”

Also India is rapaciously expanding E10 and E20

https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-fuel-ethanol-consumption-to-rise-to-meet-e20-target-fitch-121092100754_1.html

and if our contract with a PR company in India is correct and not something else then surely we should be winning a lot of business in India. Really hope that investigation finds a PR agency on the end of that contract and not something else. Beats me as i cant find a single PR article anywhere on this world for CNEL but we have 2-3 PR related contracts running.

With the world seemingly going in a tailspin with inflation about to go into orbit and Evergrande debacle and all of the worlds instability i still wonder why gold has not performed better.

I think it is great DP responds after every RNS and specifically to concerns raised on this board it seems. As i understand correctly Haverton owns the land for this project and this is outside of the SPC. Normally land can be 1/3rd of the enterprise value of any development so this is potentially a huge amount one day, assuming i am correct. This is key if someone can confirm as DP did not on the call. Secondly that Kiboo have essentially paid £3m to kick this off and that money presumably will all be paid to Eqtec to get started on the next phase or even to pay for some historic costs to reach their £15m target this year. Then Kiboo leads the finance for the project. This is slightly where i am not entirely happy in that Kiboo are very small and while they can probably do a £3m raise how are they going to fund the overall project? Presumably a lot of money will need to be raised and this would ultimately dilute Eqtec in this specific SPV, although we maintain 100% of the land ownership that i undertand we have paid around £8m for. This is not necessarily an issue as i would rather own 20% of a £150m project with dilutin and future income and most of that £150m will be payable to Eqtec over project development. ultimately when the project is sold our land value will be quite substantial along with our diluted stake in the project. I might be wrong but the biggest risk is Kiboo not really being able to raise all the finance to develop the project and leave this in limbo. i am sure the £3m is a no issue but the rest is the question for me as i would be a lot more confident with a bigger backed company that has the financial muscle. This is really what the market is concerned about i suspect as they might sense this project might go sideways waiting on Kiboo to pull it all together and they have little history of that. Hope to be corrected.

I am only listening to what JM said but we have for last 3-4 months been doing all groundworks and clearance and we have power closeby. lead times are the killer potentially and any 3rd party delays but the actual putting together of a mudular system once in country is not very long and a key bit of kit that apparently can have 40 weeks lead time is already sitting ready to be installed. I have seen mine kit installed within a year. We will see back back end of 2022 seems perfectly reasonable and my hope is that we bring in online sooner. key is to crack on and do everything possible now to make sure the actual build is not held up and mitigate all those risks.

One thing i would add is the very reason i invested is i liked the business model and being a turnkey end-to-end solution from investing pre-planning right through to construction and part ownership and where someone else is injecting most of the capital injection that is largely all our revenue as we provide all the tech. By doing this Eqtec is a mile ahead of its competition and why Eqtec has close to £1bn in possible sales pipeline. Eqtec makes it win-win. Best of all keeping a decent stake or ownership in the project once it gets the 10 year insurance in place Eqtec can sell on the plant at market prices. Those Croatian projects and many many others will be sold at a good profit for capital injections into Eqtec and in the meantime we will get significant cashflows from these operations that are eye wateringly good as we get paid to take the waste and then can sell the power. Find me another company where your input costs are paid for? If Eqtec was just a supplier of tech then its just a margin game and less interesting. Eqtec are aiming to not only create a massive new market that never really existed until they offered an end to end solution but they are skimming the cream at every point. Back to Billingham we need to hear from the horses mouth exactly how this deal will operate but if we are left with nearly 50% its almost free carry. I do not know what the market value of Billinghal will be once operational but i would put it at a 6% yield so could be substantial and big energy companies will be strategically buying as they cut back on less CO2 friendly energy products. As i have always said issue is resources only to get these deals done and i have largely been correct that deals have slipped. This is almost expected but Eqtec need to increase their team to close deals.