Member Info for Simms45

1.3 Bid is looking very close now as 1.2 is being nibbled at. Not a single sell so far and block size is tiny so plenty of dry powder left. Could move higher quite quickly as bigger buyers have not moved in yet.

Now at 1.2 bid with 3 MMs now at 1.3 so moving fast on tiny volume. Not sure what will happen once bigger buys start coming in. That £100k buy last week now looks pretty well timed.

1.2 200,000 STFL 07:59
1.3 300,000 WINS 07:50
1.3 200,000 PEEL 07:51
1.3 200,000 SCAP 07:52
1.438 200,000 SING 07:53
1.5 200,000 MREX 07:58

Looking at Level 2 there is not a lot of resistance until 1.2/1.3 when we hit some MMs and once shorters close out their positions.
1.12 200,000 07:51
1.14 200,000 07:51
1.174 250,000 07:52
1.2 200,000 STFL 07:59
1.3 300,000 WINS 07:50
1.3 200,000 PEEL 07:51
1.3 200,000 SCAP 07:52

Lets see but anyone able to buy close to previous bid should be a sizeable return if Harryy can close the finance November/December. In many ways this event will galvanise everyone to crack on and create some resilinence.

Last calls to buy in sub 1.2p i should think as that RNS is very bullish. While not mentioned yet I suspect MOM are backtracking and an extension RNS or similar is almost guaranteed in next few days so potentially a good wind incoming. Gla

Blimey. Understanderable why Kefi was not able to divulge details but great news the incident is resolved and looks now we are heading for the finish line proper. Back up we go :)

When a council recommends planning 95% of the time it will go that way so its almost a given. There would need to be a massively well organised group to overturn that position. I am expecting several more project closes in nexr few weeks to keep track on the £15m revenue that DP seems confident on and potentially a maiden profit. Could be some good traction if that happens and takes more seriously the future revenue guidelines. Certainly a train you want to be on as we go past COP26. Could be deals lined up just for this period to help Eqtec get some press coverage as a win-win-win strategy that thw government should be paying more attention to.

Yes high grading Mestiza with Mako would make a lot of sense and if we you reckon it could be 30k ounzes a year that would be a huge payback for Condor to cover the equity needs. If $1200 net after costs and splitting would still be £18m. Just need to crack on and negotiate a deal as time waits for no one but have an opportunity to head off dilution right in front of us with some redrawing of the split to make if happen.

The other reason i suspect he reported when he dis is he also had submitted an extension request to the ministry of mines and needed to be clear to the market the reasons for this prior to shareholder update. Certainly was not helped by MOM talking to papers later but all part of the dance. Upshot is hopefully, as Harry said, security issue resolved quicker and everyone on the same page come financing. It appears roughshod but you probably need to roll with the punches if your investing in a penny stock in the first international gold mine in Ethiopia during some civil unrest :)

All very positive but had to laugh when the role was a government liaison officer but all the jobs are exactly expected by a miner going into development. My view on Harrys apparent late intervention is based on experiences where i suspect he was trying to provide what was necessary to satisfy a security report to ensure the development started. i think the night before the start of October he had run out of time to resolve the matter at that time and informed the market. Had he got until end of November and overpromised on delivery this might have not even come to light as he would have had more time to beef up security measures and with government so by end of October the security report would have ticked the right boxes. Everything tells you this a real project but hampered by frustrations as Harry is spinning too many plates making them all staying up the moment we need them to very hard. We will arrive at our destination. I hope next week is a RNS on addressing security, getting that security report over the line and orderly completion in November/December. However working against that is Tigray however far away it is it cant help. Its never going to be perfect in Ethiopia, as in most of Africa, and the risks just need to be understood. Generally my only interest is TK financing happening and not necessarily some self imposed deadline as its not exactly helped Harry to do so.

Would be a perfect storm for all involved and i hope something can be evolved as its much bigger than just haggling over the split, it gives us the gold loan to tie this all up with minimum dilution and once market got wind of that the share price will rise as investors pile back in as we head towards our NPV in lead up to production. Then MC can spend more time on strategy than pander to bankers and do a cheeky placing at £1 and use it to double down on the 5m district while gold loan can take care of the equity. Dreaming :) Having said that $25m placing on £60m market cap is only 30% dilution so not perfect but its also ok based on IRR of over 50% but closer to 0 dilution is better. We will see but to mention it having previously dropped from presentation could be interesting or just coincidence. We will see.

Well its all about dilution really isn’t it as toll would raise value of company substantially so any dilution would be barely felt and we could almost certainly sell forward the gold to point where no placing is actually needed and maximise shareholder wealth. Not done sums but its probably worth £30m to shareholders to have a toll if it negated placing and raised market cap and maybe more. this is why i think MC should be generous to calibre and cut the deal as he needs to look at whole impact for shareholders. However JM might want a massive dilution for himself and raise his stake along with other key investors and that is also an alterior motive why this toll has not happened if certain people have hardened their position knowing it would scupper the deal and thinking of their own motives further down the road. JM could take his stake higher and maybe make a cheeky offer himself. Keeping gold for ourselves is great but if we have district of 5m then a 100k toll is peanuts but $180m gross sounds very useful for all parties. We only need $25m to close the finance. for me its a no brainer and deal is in the air and just needs MC to move his line to understand the massive benefit to company from share price and maybe no placing. Anyone sadly probably all too late and we will probably be diluted wonderfully by JM and chums.

Two schools of thought for me. MC will take an offer pre production so to maximise the value he wants the biggest NPV today so makes sense to up his motor now and no downtime later on when you switch over. There is a chance that someone comes in pre production like Rio Tinto who has so far done diggly squat with their Calibre tie-up and maybe biding their time. Second school of thought is of course get cashflow in the door asap, keep costs low as possible and two fingers up to anyone who comes knocking and take it from their. Of course a buyer might like option to swap motor and up production so they can see how they can add value. Its a small shame the PFS cant come for christmas. As to toll one other thought is that if Calibre wants to mix ore with their own then all this infill drilling is all about that so any split of revenue can be worked out without Calibre taking turns with ore. if that was the case its all now done so Calibre and MC can be confident on split. probably not but would be a nice RNS to wake up to. Good to see the madness of the 30s behind us on and to the 50s as anyone can see we are getting close and our NPV is grossly out of kilter with current shareprice.

Quite an interesting company as not dissimilar stage to Condor. latest PEA for Noront was

After tax NPV (8%) of $C543Mm with 28% IRR.

The buyout price was around $480m canadian so just shy of NPV pre build.

Would be nice if something like that happened to Condor as here are the similar numbers

IRR of 54% and a post-tax Net Present Value ("NPV") of US$418 million.

I would take $350m if BHP are interested?

Can you advise how many other mining companies in Ethiopia have managed to convince the Ethiopian government to become a paid up shareholder? This is the biggest reason to believe this project will proceed. To even get through the doors is hard enough but to put all this together is almost wizardry in a country like Ethiopia and to convert our $70m investment to date (including Harry emoluments) into future equity could turn out nicely. Harry has even said he is not looking to do a placing. Personally to close this funding he should do whatever it takes. . Sure we are not quite there and i am not defending Harry as he does overpromise and underdeliver but the project stacks up for all concerned. . If you remember we also Hawiah in Saudi and Kefi is listed in London and board are from Australia. You would not expect Harry to spend all his time in Ethiopia as you would be complaining he was not at AGMs or Saudi next. We have a full management team in Ethiopia on the ground who are local and frankly Harry is probably not your best local negotiator as i dont rate his Ethiopian is up to scratch or his Australian demeanor likely to win locals over :)

If you go back to basics Kefi convinced the Ethiopian government to invest $20m that has largely already been spent on the TK project. This is tax payers money and i hope you recognise just how difficult it is to convince s government to invest this sort of money. While its easy to shoot down Harry to missed deadlines to get the EG on board requires a great deal of credibility to pull off. Furthermore he has done the same with all banks and investors. These people have considerable risk and have done considerable due diligence and in Harrys business acumen. remember also Kefi and its predecessor invested $70m in this project and this is recognised as pur equity contribution meaning we are ending up 70% owners. Yes there is risk but the day this financing is resolved $70m drops into our equity and given we are only £20m today you can see just accounting magic will have a multiple impact on the companies equity position. I think some people are too close to the trees as the bigger picture is far more relevant and when you do that and look at these macroeconomic forces you come away with a far greater confidence. There is massive risk, we all know that as Ethiopia has its internal woes but economically and safety compared to the Congo is not even close and so many miners work in that country in far worse conditions. Had Harry pulled this together sooner it would be too late for investors to request more security reports but Harry is in Ethiopia now and is presumably going to stay until this is across the line. GLA

Well good to see copper top $11k a tonne, almost double 12 months ago. Hawiah is getting bigger by the day and potential profits there are enormous. The updated PFS is due this quarter and should be an interesting read. Overall Hawiah stake is of significant value that is far above todays silly market cap of £20m so while i am still confident TK is going to happen Hawiah is going to quickly come into its own trajectory. I think end of this month we will get the all clear on security and resolve the security issue in the report and then really there are no excuses to not conclude this financing.

You certainly need to tip your hats to Calibre for a great execution since they bought B2Gold from right under MCs nose but MC should worry that he spent 2 years selling the toll in every webinar and that his possible dithering to agree a toll has been lost and cost Condor dearly. it might be simply that Calibre did not want to do any deal at any price for whatever reason but i suspect the ball has been in Condors court to change the split and the management were not for turning. its fine for a Calibre to do this with massive profits piling in the door but certainly not for MC who goes asking for investor cash every 12 months to keep the lights on. I guess it is still a possibility it could happen.

Its a bit galling to read that article especially the following part :

"Considering our ‘hub-and-spoke’ execution, 50% surplus capacity at our Libertad mill, significant exploration growth potential, strong treasury and no debt, Tom is a great addition to the team."

We have apparently been trying to organise a toll for 2-3 years so someone should knock some heads together and pick up the phone and make something happen. "Hub and Spoke" makes me laugh as where are the spokes? The CEO of Calibre, if he was not not riding high on a great execution of the buyout from B2Gold, would normally feel the wrath of investors that he is wasting millions in profits by not using that 50% capacity. If MC had signed a deal, even if not the best terms 40/60 whatever we would now be at £1 a share and probably now with enough cash to pay a good part of the build and soften the financial pain. We have 5m ounze district in time so what is throwing 100k ounzes going to matter in the grand scheme of things? that would be $180m gross to share. MC should just get it done and no more dithering!

Ethiopia went into Tigray the first time around Ethiopia went into Tigray the first time around and it took only a few weeks to bring the area under control. Due to subsequent global pressure and some unpleasant Ethiopian military actions the Ethiopian government unilaterally moved all soldiers out of Tigray to allow aid convoys in and peaceful talKs. However the TPLF had a habit of stealing the trucks so aid was not able to get in. The TPLF have little friends around the world and its neighbours are not happy with them either as they have continued to try and destabalise the country and not engage in peaceful conversation so the Ethiopian government, now largely supported globally will no doubt go in and deal with the groups who seek to use violence over peace. Not saying Ethiopian soldiers are any better sadly but the TPLF need to face up to fact 90% of the population of Ethiopia that backed Abiy do not want to return to a military dictatorship under the TPLF. This time around we can hope it is over in a few weeks.