Member Info for Simms45

Sorry to see you leave just at maybe the turning point but Condor has technically been a poor investment compared to the market in general over the last 2 years but is likely to spurt higher in the next 6 months. One thing to think about with Synairgen is that the new Covid variants apears are far weaker than the original, as i understand is normal as pandemics turn into Endemics. The common cold once killed a lot of people so my only concern with any Covid stocks, and treatments, is that there might be less and less people to treat as fewer and fewer end up being hospitalised. Certainly people i know who had covid recently largely shrugged it off and thats probably because everyone now has some level of built in immunity. Anyway best of luck.

Lwts wait for Jan 31st but i agree Harry and team only have themselves to blame as had they delivered this year we would be in a different place and if you wait long enough in any African country there will be conflict. The key for Kefi is all money is coming from African banks and multinationals who cant get money out of the country will be able to run it through Kefi and get it out through the new international banking agreement so i think the money is still good and possibly more so. It would be a different story if we were relying on US or other banks i suspect but motivations are all aligned but just needs some speed. As to extension if Harry is right and state of security hels snd and TPLF agree something (i have no idea as i am not sure they want anything except going back to them running the shopfloor for their own gains but its hard to imagine the MOM not extending as anyone else would face 12-18 months and Kefi is in as good a place as we have ever been to realise this, albeit unrest is a major fly in the ointment and perfect excuse for anyone to hold back investing. We will see but i see plenty of upside as peace talks commence as there will be a positive momentum of change. I think chance of TPLF going into Addis is about 0 really. that would be messy for the TPLF and hardly going to win over the 95% of population who are not Tigrayan and the Oromio Liberation are sworn enemies of TPLF so it would create another scuffle. Most likely outcome is some talks and negototiation but still amazed the medias support for the TPLF that is being pushed by presumably the US.

Its a strange world we live in where a democratically elected goverment that had over 90% of the country (excluding Tigray) take part in recent elections and provided a landslide victory to the present government where you have the US appearing to back the TPLF who represent just 5% of the population and under their military dictstorship of 27 years saw some of the worst atrocities and famine in the 80s and the lowest levels of income in thr horn of Africa. Its a bit like the US supporting the Taliban or Sadam Huseein? Oh thats funny they did both of those in the 80s and then turned against them when they decided to not return their calls…. Something is very strange and i am starting to think if the US and Egypt are working together to destabilise the Ethiopian renaissance dam being switched on or simply the old divide and conquer plan. It just seems unbelievable how the US and western media are actually trying to take down a democratically elected government? Ethiopia due to current government over last 10 years has been transformed and most multinationals base themselves in Addis. it seems the TPLF have powerful actors in the background but only hope a peace is agreed. hopefully we get some traction quick and get some updates on progress for Kefi because nothing will be signed at the moment.

Does look a peaceful election, albeit under tight circumstances. Onwards and upwards as with elections out of the way Condor can move forward confidently.

I had a small update today so hopefully some concrete activity soon :

“We have pushed the IIC and the investigator all the time and we hope the draft of the independent investigation report can be finished this week.”

personally the warrants were my biggest gripe in recent placing as it probably leaves some investors to sell their placing and hold the warrants only. hence we are pegged at 35p. this is artificially low in my view because of the warrants allowing some traders in the placing to exit. depends on personal circumstances but if you have been here this long then within 12 months a lot of action should have materialised. Certainly next 3 months we might get the fabled toll agreement once we get past the elections and some land deal on final 3% prior to mine financing. i think there is a good chance the new CFO is working on something that might be more creative on financing and i am hopeful the actual placing for the mine will be less than people think but the toll is the key that unlocks major benefits to the company. £2bn in gold but at current market cap market is valuing ounze at $33. Therefore if a toll led to a greater return than $33 per ounze that the market values it at then its value creating. obviously it should be $100s more than that but this is how MC and team need to view the situation and make. The market can then automatically then see that Condor should be valued at more than this silly amount because we have found a way to get it onto the gold exchanges and sell it, and of course forward sell it for mine finance!

Would be good to know when the Hawiah PEA will come in while the drama unfolds in Ethiopia. Some peace talks must start anyday really as plenty of noise from Kenya etc about peace talks but still a bit early. TPLF presumably are largely interested in a bigger voice/money in parliament etc but who knows but i wonder if Abiy is actually letting TPLF wander into a trap of some kind so EG have the TPLF in the open as opposed to hiding in the mountains. seems odd as TPLF must be massively outnumbered in every sense of the word on soldiers, tanks, planes etc. Lets hope some sense is knocked into them to start talking and de-escalate asap.

Level 2 quickly falling away. Just a few more at 1.198 before next leg to 1.26 ASK. MMs taking as much as they can but does not look anyone is falling to sell at 1p lol. looking very positive for Kefi and hopefully some peace talks get underway as umrest is pointless for all people.

1.198 289,934 08:50
1.26 200,000 STFL 07:55
1.3 200,000 PEEL 07:51
1.3 305,000 07:52
1.3 300,000 WINS 08:52

Very good news as we continue to move forwards. We have confirmation of extension to close TK finance and license until 3035 and an assessment of recent civil unrest happening 1000 km away that is largely unrelated. Clearly not helping us but everything is on course and very positive. Harry and team are in Ethiopia so will understand this first hand.

No one can predict civil unrest but it happens but i have to say Harry has in the past said it does not affect the mine as mines exist all over the world with civil unrest just more security. Last year in took 2 weeks for Abiy to control Mekelle and Tigray and TPLF disappeared into the hills. In some ways i expect that Abiy will not unilaterally leave as they did before until the TPLF are actually serious about peace. Work will continue in the meantime as most of what was happening was legal work and security reports but obviously for next few weeks we just need to hope and expect EG got control of the situation as they massively ungun and outnumber them so its hard to imagine anything else.

Actually stockready i am sitting on a pretty decent profit but when i looked around for value in the gold and copper sector a while back Kefi stood out a mile, albeit with caveats but it is risk and reward. With some mining stocks you might see1- 2x over a period of time but i do like sometimes to take a few bigger risks on the off chance of a bigger return. Some you win and some you lose. So far for me apart from delays and politics Kefi is and has always moved forwards Kefi. I get Harry has been spectacularly bad with overpromising and under delivering but regardless we are moving forward. You are welcome to post your opinion although would prefer if you explained you were shorting the stock or perhap lost money in the past and feel its your duty to warn others. Do you know Harry as i perhaps missed part of your history with the company and always useful to learn and share your experiences. We have all had bad investment timings. I am still confident we will unlock value from Kefi and i am patient.

Bottom line for me is we have 10-20x over next 2 years with a perfect storm of TK finance and then Hawiah and JQ or i see 2-5x if just Hawiah and TK and JQ parked. Of course neither of those coming off would be unpleasant but we are all invested on the basis we know the risks but i cant help thinking that we are worth a lot more than £22m today given we have at least £6bn and counting gold and copper spread across multiple mines at at advanced stage partnered with the Ethiopian government and in Saudi Artan who are a massive. Take a look around at gold and copper miners and you will not find a multi project exploration close to development anywhere who have invested £70m over last 12 years. You can find gold miners with barely more than a shovel in some parts of the world for more. Updated PEA for Hawiah anytime soon as should be Q4 although could mean December but nearly halfway in. Plenty could happen this month and mostly i see on the upside given we are at a near all time low.

L2 looks to support ASK of 1.6 with a little momentum so lets see how the morning goes

1.5 200,000 SING 08:29
1.55 200,000 ARDA 08:28
1.55 200,000 PEEL 08:23
1.6 200,000 CANA 07:55
1.6 200,000 CFEP 08:21
1.6 200,000 SCAP 07:53
1.6 200,000 STFL 08:13
1.6 250,000 WINS 08:29
1.65 200,000 JBER 07:56
1.75 250,000 MREX 08:05

Its worth re-reading same news same time last year. Its almost the same. Tigray puts a few armed people in Amhara and newswires have lots of news and global leaders lean on TPLF and EG to make up and then Abiy unites the 95% of the population against Tigray etc etc. obviously TPLF have little hope of anything but extracting some extra benefits/cash from any peace deal probably funded by US etc. The TPLF are surrounded by plenty of countries fedup by their aim of creativ instability and they should hope Eritrea do not get back involved. Really Abiy should have unilaterally removed his army last year but had to do so because of world pressure. This time the world can see TPLF are agitators and are less likely to support the TPLF.

The biggest issue by far today is the environmental and social permit to mine or build any industrial plant. In the past i think this was massaged through but the bar is now set so high that any impact on the environment or local population without robust plan to make the impact almost negative will not go ahead. Wales has a moratorium on any new waste to energy plant etc. Alba should have proposed a zero impact environmental plan as anything else in the Welsh countryside in natural outstanding beauty was probably doomed to failure in retrospect. Management should forget appealing imho. By the time that happens permit will be even tougher and who ever overturns a permit like this as its just sour grapes. They need to do a fresh permit and take seriously.

i suspect RAB capital who many thought got in too cheaply are now probably batting for pis as they need to protect their investment. They are advancing the loans and i suspect have a very close leash on Harry and team to steer them to to financisl close. Blimey i dont want to sound like a broken record but surely we must get some decent news in November if December is now the month. personally December is a tough call so really November needs to achieve some serious steps to prove up we have deal. Plenty of positives snd Harry knows its do or die time as well as any chance of him collecting any of his bonus. I agree he should have had more ears to the ground as if i understand the Ethiopia government redeployed soldiers elsewhere leaving a vacuum and when that happened Harry should have stepped up security. Harry could have possibly sidestepped this event. Lets hope he did not take his own staff hostage to get a few more months reprieve as i am sure a few thought of that but seriously its all there and now its time Harry doubles down and executes the financing and bring Hawiah PEA out asap :)

We went from .5 to 3 on little news last year. Now we have action delivering the words spoken so 1.4p is an incredible entry. We have many companies falling at planning like Simec and so many others are failing environmental permit. At this rate Eqtec is last man standing. To sail through planning on Deeside with backslapping from councillors is unheard of. Its probably the penny dropping and institutions with access to better research could be moving in. Eqtec stands out a mile in the UK stock market. Cop26 must also massively help but always have been very confident Eqtec is onto becoming a very large company that majors will fight over one day as Eqtec will be great green energy producer and into hydrogen as well. Just needs the financial taps switching to roll out 100s of Eqtec projectd globally.

Level 2 very interesting today. Shows that once 36.5 ASK is gobbled up we move to 38. Be interesting to see this happen but its a good step up and those considering a top-up might be a good time.

36.5 5,000 JBER 07:52
38 5,000 WINS 07:39
39 5,000 CFEP 09:04
39 5,000 SING 07:50
39.5 5,000 SCAP 07:53
40.5 5,000 PEEL 09:40
41 5,000 CANA 09:03

Probable easier to googleit but Level 2 just tells you what each MM has to sell and buy and the blocksize. if you have a lot of MMs selling at 1.4 with large blocksize then you have resistance and vice versa. I was only showing ASK. As you see different MMs move their ASK higher and less MMs selling then more likelihood of a step up. Obviously when no one is selling the steps can be big as normal market size is small. Its only moderately useful but does give a sense when markets move quickly.

I agree MC is solidly working and very happy to be invested in such a company built on firm foundations. Very confident in the medium and long-term but strategic manaouvres could be more at pace and i think until recently knowing a placing was near term it was determined that buying land or other factors like this was held back as apart from mine finance this was probably last placing to tuck in a bargain. Granted we all have access to placing price but strategically important calls prior to placing would havw benefited pis and maybe reduced interest in placing if price got ahead. MC knows that successful placings are easier when its clear we are a bargain. Now this placing is out of the way i really hope between now and mine build we trigger some of those top drawer events that might take us to 60p, where i think we should be realistically and in line with market. if we get some of those prior to New Year and a bit of gold traction we might well get close.