Member Info for Simms45

have to agree Harry and teams share grab at .8p for salaries was pretty unpleasant. They should have joined the queue and only taken their salaries once TK finance was completed just to add some more reason for Harry to get TK sorted. Not really decent to pay themselves before everyone else at a very discounted placing price when Harry has often said and the NPV supports a 10p or 20p valuation so pretty frustrating that when it suits him we are valued at .8p. At the very least Harry was adamant at 2p Kefi would not do a placing, even when i was keen he did whatever it takes to oil the wheels and make it happen. The civil war happened and wrong footed all proceedings and Harry has missed his £500k bonus opportunity but at the very least Harry and team should have converted their salaries at 2p, when Harry said he did not want a placing. Overall the placing has diluted everyone 33% so not terrible but certainly not good either. January is a key month for Harry to release on Hawiah and get TK back on track now that we are back to the status quo of Ethiopia and TPLF. In fairness to Harry he did secure the EG as a 20% shareholder in TK so i am still maintaining that TK will get moving. The same with Hawiah where Harry secured a very well funded partner so he is capable of pulling of deals. Its probably a 12 month window of relative stability in Ethiopia now the US has largely pulled their support for backing the TPLF and using whatever they could to try and overthrow Abiy. Gold is now climbing nicely but Harry should have fallen on his sword, accepted his mistakes to not close in 2021 and taken a salary hit. He cant blame the civil war as he was supposed to be have closed last March. Ultimately i am still positive there is a real project unfolding in Ethiopia and Saudi and Jibal is about to get its license and that is low cost easy gold just lying around so we are not a one trick pony. Hawiah is by far the most likely now to run forwards and i think with Artan as the major shareholder this for me is the backstop and firmly underpins value in excess of today but is dragged down by poor performance to not sort TK when Harry said he would. If you have belief Hawiah will happen or TK we are a bargain today and if we pulled of both together with Jibal we are in for a good few years. if you think none of these projects will happen and Harry is just a fraudster then probably better to look elsewhere as the stock market is awash with bargains at the moment so plenty of value to be found.

Everything is ready for 2022 to be a great year.
Elections out of the way
La India cleared and key mine equipment onsite
BFS completed and just to be released in early 2022 with financing hopefully soon afterwards
Gold over 1800 and i am not sure we are heading back
Gold mining stocks at a multi-year low
New CFO ex Calibre and other key hires
Rampant inflation with a flight to assets that hold their value

We really have everything in place and as long as Condor bleeding through dilution there is no reason to think we cannot be around £1 by the end of 2022 and with an eye on production, perhaps through a toll or the fact we have done so much mine clearance already could mean we could get the crusher online sooner and start to stockpile then £1 could arrive a lot sooner. So many options in the air and lets hope 2022 will be the year of action.

Without being pedantic this is in the funding agreement :

“KEFI: equity is provided by KEFI after all parties have signed, as part of the Project launch, as approved by Senior Lenders and other Lead Financiers. Historical pre-development investment by KEFI subsidiary KEFI Minerals (Ethiopia) Limited was c. US$70 million, which is excluded from the above table showing development funding;”

That $70m as far as understand is in our accounts. It presumably existed from our predecessor and looking at accounts we only have £20m intangibles that does not even touch the sides. when the funding package gets executed this $70m will be seen as our equity injection, as if we did a $70m placing. if TK happens it will have a positive impact on our balance sheet.

Sb if you check the accounts all that £60m investment is all virtually written off. Everyone can interpret the RNSs we have got over the years how they wish but the board have over promised and under delivered and that is disappointing for all. However we approach the New Year at a very low entry into a potentially big reward but there as i have always said big risks.

The key part of this funding package is we are not putting in equity. The investors have accepted that out £60m investment to date so far (now written off) is largely our equity. Therefore on funding completion it will be case that our balance sheet will swell by the same amount. This is why this project is so complex but equally highly lucrative but very high risk as we can see. I have always personally wanted them to do a placing to close this deal. I can only base my views on the company by the RNS and assume the Nomads are doing their job to check it. We have been badly stretched here but if Kefi out out Hawiah now i suspect it would not have as much weight because everyone would still be expecting a placing. Therefore i suspect they have done in the right order, to clear things up so when Hawiah and further news is released it will have an impact as at least this niggling placing is out of the way.

i get the part about investors injecting cash into the business, and sadly given the recent civil unrest and the lack of pi shareholder interest, this is just the reality. The price of .8p seems about right on todays price.

However what grates is that Harry has not apologised to shareholders for his continual stream of RNSs that kept everyone on tenterhooks about imminent TK funding, only to keep on kicking the can down the road. Where is any apology from the CEO and board? How has the board showed any humility in todays RNS? Have they made any concession to shareholders? I think given they are directly responsible for not concluding TK finance when the sun was shining over the last few years they should make some gesture.

I am still confident Kefi will come to fruition and positively for all shareholders and understand the civil unrest derailed, what i suspect really was the financing being readied for December, but that is what happens if you do not strike quickly as unrest is every few years in African and the board know that better than anyone.

On the positive side Kefi has got this placing away easily so there is appetite and the upside is still big if they conclude the TK deal. We will immediately put £60m of equity back on the balance sheet for a start. However Harry really does need to come back to shareholders with a proposal that responds to them over promising and under delivering at seems hard to swallow that the board might well benefit from this situation considerably and they know all the insider information on Hawiah and TK financing. I would have liked to have seen the board settling their salary at 2p so they would effectively take a haircut today but subject to achieving 2p pronto they would be back in the money. If what they keep on saying will happen that might be only a few months away.
Lets hope we get the finance OTL by March 2022.

Great find. We have 766k of gold just waiting to be heap leached at JB. We just need the permit signed off and away we go and it could be as early as January. Its a straightforward process so alongside Hawiah and TK it could be a massive January. We just need one to come off but im confident TK will provide some decent update as the TPLF once the US backers have slipped into the shadows has crumbed extremely fast and i doubt the TPLF will have the funds to wage another attack now the taps are off. We will see but all looking very promising. Hawiah maybe next week but its primed to be released.

US indirect support for TPLF was so obvious and disturbing. The articles used the correct word "transactional" as that is how the US seems to wage its way to ensure its corporations benefit from the fall out and is purely transactional and onviously nothing to do with democracy as Abiy was democretically elected it was simply that he was not playing ball and selling all his assets for cheap to US interests and presumably the TPLF had agreed to hand it all over for US backing. Whenever US corporations can gain an advantage in another country the government will use all force necessary to necessitate that, indirectly of course. i remember how the US almost destroyed BP in the deepwater horizon issue to aid their own companies, while similar US issues went without a scratch, and how they destroyed Astra Zeneca for daring to offer a vaccine that was low cost when the US government was backing Pfizer, or how the US tried to destroy all UK and european banks after they have sold us US subprime mortgages and further imposed draconian fines later on, or how the US went after Volkswagen etc etc etc. They do the same with every industry to advance their progress through indirect political. Its unbelievable.

Well something is happening? Its been silent on volume for 6 months and then we have woken up. I hope its a toll deal as that would change the game but a long long way to go.

Its all orchestrated. The short extension is as much to push investors to sign and move onto next stage. In reality MOM will keep on extending as they are 20% shareholder. Report from ethiopia reporter is hugely encouraging which implies all finance in place and things are moving faster than expected. On top of Hawiah update things are speeding up. I see a lot of traction towards the end of January as i hope Kefi can formalise finance. Certainly a weight off shoulders that TPLF have almost fully gone back to Tigray so both parties can try and sort some semblence of peace. Sti cant believe the US and other powers were backing the TPLF and then left them high and dry it seems. Really depressing how the US seem to be destabilising all number of countries with some provocative foreign policy but Biden and Hilary were behind some of the worst wars in last 30 years. Funny how under Trump there was actually limited issues and now Trump has gone China is eyeing Taiwan and Russia maybe Ukraine. Anyway could be a good few weeks for Kefi.

Lets refer to the Kefi Q&A to get some clarity :

Remuneration of KEFI directors?
Q: There is confusion about the remuneration of the directors. Is it or is it not all reported in the Annual Report? What is the basis for setting remuneration? And is it still the case that the Executive Chairman has invested more than he has received as remuneration?

A: It is all reported in the annual report. The basis is by reference to industry comparables and targeting median remuneration for the role. And lastly, yes, for the first half of his tenure since 2006 the Chairman was paid nothing. And since then he has invested more than he has received.

Posted 02 July 2021

Well lets hope that while MC is in Nic and probably not going back for a number of months he focuses on the toll deal. I was only repeating what MC said in recent update so given we are so close he would probably have a good handle on things, afterall his background is finance really. We have assets so bridging loans l, often with option to convert to shares later so a good one for the lender normally but key is dilution after mine finance when share is 2-3x today. It can come with 25% interest but its probably a better way than another low ball placing as it will destroy shareholders value. What was once a 10-20% dilution and no issie might turn into 40-60% dilution which is a deal breaker today and complete destruction of shareholder value. JM is well known for topups in the public domain but its true he can only trade in certain windows. Lets hope he cant trade as toll is being finalised.

If Eqtec can invoice for most of that £3m should be on target and so far nothing to say otherwise. Lets close another deal or 2 before New Year and hit those targets. It will speak volumes in an industry notorious for missing targets by decades. Looking very positive and just need to let the nervous nellies out and pick up some cheap stock before we re-rate. Gla.

Well given all the recent placement traders running for cover its a great time to top-up so good timing i would say. Really frustrating we needed to do that placing in the way we did it and not instead look at short term bridging loan leading up to finance early next year as we were heading back up to 50p before the wind was knocked out of the sails. If a lot of the placing dropped into slippery hands we have a serious overhang to chomp through. I suspect JM must be eyeing the share price with big eyes atm as its potentially a gift to him to further increase his holding well below the placing. Only way out from this painful spiral i can only sse as the toll in all honesty. What a fiasco. The way things are going MC will need to get a lot more creative on the finance, maybe find joint partner to take a share of the mine and keep dilution down.

Also if its confirmed Abiy has allowed the TPLF a safe passage home then the TPLF are fully defeated. They are returning only because Abiy wants to seal peace and the world will watch the TPLF what they do as with all the firepower at Abiy command he could have wiped them all out as they retreated as there is only a few roads. The fact he is offering a safe passage is very encouraging. Could be a strong run over coming weeks, especially with Hawiah and maybe better TK updates.

Sounds like the TPLF robbed and pillaged back to Tigray. All great news for Kefi and not a moment too soon. Kefi confirmed investors are still ready to proceed and just a shame i am sure we have some hoops to jump through. We should know more this month but i suspect the main course this month will be Hawiah update that we know is a potential monster asset but would be good to hear that TK could complete pre Jan 31st, although i am sure March is more likely. Key is security is on top of and that is a big relief.

share is dropping arguably on quite low net volumes of shares so at some point an about turn might precipitate but as i say as the nervous nellies (recent placement traders who have got burnt) sell their shares the price goes lower, the potential dilution get more for mine finance and further nellies sell and down we go. That recent placing i am sure underpins this downward trajectory as they can argue warrant is worth 5p and sell at 30p and not make a loss. This is the elephant in the room and for some reason MC referred to political risk but that is simply not the main factor imv. While we must respect RB who sold at the peak i am sadly not for turning and staying and hoping that the toll gets agreed. We would reverse back up to 50p in quick succession and probably push on further as if you did that MC can finally say he really DERISKED the project. Cash is king and even though we have £2bn in our muddly field we need some of it in the bank asap. Everything is in place for the toll with Mestiza infill released end of October. MC mentioned he knows the score so that means he has seen the numbers and i cant help thinking some toll is close. Surely just over a month from Mestiza infill is enough time. MC is in Nicaragua now so its time to strike as presumably he will be returning soon. Clearly last webinar MC was very careful how he phrased the toll discussion we are possibly having with calibre as he paused before answering so i would say its really tight. Would be a great monday RNS but we can dream. We are now at £43m market cap and that seems bonkers cheap if we could clear that in profit in a single year. MC mentioned build minimum was 9 months and max 18 months. I would be happy with 14 months from February 2022 so we could complete 8 months production maybe in 2024. fingers crossed this to will happen. MC needs to lay on the red carpet move those red lines and move on. If he could get away without onerous dilution that £1.50 is in sight.

While you can watch updates from different characters on Youtube this one has been correct last month or so but looks TPLF and OLA are largely pushed back and looks to be a retreat in progress. No peacetalks commenced and really that is the key but in terms of Ethiopia breakdown its far from correct. Obviously a lot of the damage has happened so any investors with jittery nerves its hardly going to help proceedings but as all investors are African we do stand a chance that most will not have flinched from the TPLF push. anyway i would expect the Kefi shareprice to start recovering as we move towards a stalemate but ideally a point where TPLF and EDF put away their weapons and think more about how they can all live together.
https://youtu.be/8mql_BjX1Y4

I think we can safely assume bridging is rolled over given the date and who knows how much of the £1.5m we have used until now. Storm in a teacup. Next.

“The Group has the option to access working capital from certain existing stakeholders for up to GBP £1.5 million. This unsecured working capital bridging finance is short-term debt which is unsecured and ranked below other loans. Bridging Finance facilities bear a fixed interest rate of 25% and are repayable at the earlier of a capital raise or 30 November 2021. In the event the Group was unable to pay this finance it would be repaid after other debt securities have been paid, if any. Management expects that the company would meet its contractual obligation on any such bridging finance on a timely basis going forward.”