Member Info for Simms45

In reference to excitement of North America we paid £750k to Japan Chiyoda Kabu Limited, as per auditors resignation letter, for their sterling work to recommend buying Bioneutra global corporation https://www.bioneutra.ca/ for $7m and to this day i simply cannot see the reason? seemed to me a lot of money to spend on advice for this company and i think we lucked out to not buy them. Sums it all up really.

This will help on hurdles BOD need to jump through to get back their listing
“On 5 May 2021, the Company received a letter from the Stock Exchange (the “Letter”), in which the following resumption guidance (the “Resumption Guidance”) was set out for the Company:
(i) conduct an appropriate independent investigation into the audit issues raised by the Company’s auditors as disclosed in the announcement of the Company dated 31 March 2021, assess the impact on the Company’s business operation and financial position, announce the findings and take appropriate remedial actions;
1

(ii) publish all outstanding financial results required under the Listing Rules and address any audit modifications;
(iii) demonstrate the Company’s compliance with Rule 13.24 of the Listing Rules; and
(iv) inform the market of all material information for the Company’s shareholders and investors to appraise the Company’s position.

Harry has booked his shareholder forum for just over a week away so i think he has a pretty strong view of the way the license will go. I personally think he asked for a short extension as he as well the mines ministry need to crate some urgency to bring investors and banks together. Also importantly attacks in Western Wollega by the OLF stopped around December so there is a very good runway of peace directly benefiting Kefi so really my suspicion is that the extension will be granted to May personally would prefer April as we are told almost everything is done. The upside is huge but Harry has lied in historic RNSs regarding TK closure so sadly his word is almost worthless. The first hint of TK finance closing and we will jump to 1.5 and then onwards as we should be around a £80m market cap minimum on financial close and if Hawiah and JQ come together we should push higher to $120m-$150m. I agree the downside cannot be much less than the £20m market cap today. Even our tax loss over the last 10 years is worth more than this so a mine operator could buy Kefi today and save easily £20m in tax from our tax losses so this almost values Kefi at 0 today. All largely because Harry has told porkies in his RNS statements. There is only one way forward and that is close this finance and probably get yourself back out to Ethiopia and stay their until it is done. I presume Harry is in London for business reasons so the forum is an add on so if that is correct and he should tell us why he is in London then so be it. I certainly hope he tells the assembled investors he is catching a flight on that night out to Ethiopia and London is just a stop off.

Its all behind us now so lets hope the results at the end of February really addresses the future and delivers on dividend. it could change everything so we should keep up the heat until that is delivered and see if Mr Cai and the Chairmans other hand shakes have opened any doors. I also wonder how quickly the interims will be released as we cant get relisted until they are up to date and also satisfy all conditions from the HKex that spoke strongly of providing full updates to shareholders, that even since suspension they have not delivered. Could still be a long delay if the HKex pushes their key points of CNEL on transparency.

The acid test will be just how many Indian sales we get and deliverables from Mr Cai for the £2.4m of cash paid in advance to a few Chinese benefactors at opaque companies who even the independent report could not find much to show for it and very handily blamed on pandemic. Not complaining as this is about the best report they could have expected. The £2.4m
is more than a dividend payment to all shareholders so given they can throw money to their mates they can do the honourable thing and pay that dividend. I really hope their financial numbers are better than expected as otherwise that £2.4m exiting left will leave a worse taste in the mouth. Btw i am being kind to the BOD as frankly i am invested so want the company back on the exchange but shareholders should never see a repeat of this and non execs should have been on top of this much earlier.

Well at least its a whitewash report so CNEL can return to the exchange but goodness me reading between the lines its pretty much what we all expected. Basically mates of the Chairman being paid 18 months contract money in advance for doing very little and no oversight whatsoever with witnesses not taking calls. All i hope this puts a stop to this cronyism and the recommendations are greater oversight and more board members to cross check this sort of behaviour. Ultimately its a relief for shareholders but BOD have been handing out lots of cash their mates as we all expected was the case. in my books their only way out is a dividend and more transparency. At least hopefully some internal controls can stamp out the cash exiting to their mates.

Did you remember in the webinar that "driver" was a popular choice for training. Only recently thought about it but the first jobs we could offer with a toll would be trucking ore so it stands to reason this would be precisely what we should be doing if we were planning logistics correctly as i remember somewhere from signing and trucking would be around 3 months so this might even shortcut that process. I would assume we would be sending high grade ore to so the $30 a tonne is kept minimal and Calibre are already doing this with their hub and spoke model so we suit the strategy. Key is we could be getting cash within 3 months that would change everything and in the meantime i am sure MC and team are pushing the mine build as quickly as they can and even make it quicker. with cash coming in we could jump to a bigger motor and be more bullish and even make a cheeky raise along the way when the shareprice is well north of today. Known revenue is hugely valuable as while we can hope mine gets built in 12 months it might also not so this certainty is hugely valuable on so many levels. There is always a deal at some point and they just need to make it happen. With out CFO, previously from Calibre he must know all of this because he would have been once negotiating the other side.

The market is now into a unwinding situation and has been for around 12 months and tide has been going out. There is little wrong with Eqtec. Eqtec can seriously jump with financial closes that should be incoming and could be back over 1.5-2p very quickly. Eqtec is worth less than £90m which is clearly not correct for a market and technologically leading solution. We do not have a £1bn sales pipeline for fun. i am hopeful financial closes between now and April will bounce us strongly higher and put those revenue and profits back on track but it has been quiet in January. Time for DP and team to doubledown on projects close and get them otl. I suspect so much is going on things are just not happening fast enough.

we can only wait and hope. Its hard to compare Calibre with Condor but our gold is the ground at less than $30 puts us at the bottom so there might other ways to compare and sooner we can put a date on extracting the sooner we can re-rate. I dont know what it is for Calibre? With Calibre now its all about discounted cashflow based on next 8 years and Calibre need to prove up more gold so they dont run out but they appear to be doing well. Condor is right at the beginning but also think Calibre are undervalued. I understand our profitability we also be higher margin than Calibre and there is also likelihood Condor will be sold in next 2 years so any buyer will pay a premium. Plenty of room for a re-rate and not many gold producers on LSE so i think it can only help. Maybe i am scratching around here.

A: It was reported last night in the media that Federal Cabinet had approved to do so and needs parliament to ratify, which we expect will be quick.

Q: Does lifting of the SOE take the last hurdle out of the way and the TK financing can now be completed?

A: The short answer is that this development is consistent with the assumptions underlying our standing plans to launch between February and May.

The more expansive answer is that the lifting of the State of Emergency is entirely consistent with our expectation that the internal conflicts would peak in Q4-21, that the country would turn its corner for the better in Q1-22 and that the country will then pull out all stops to get back on its 20-year long path of consistent high-growth - which is now very much needed to repair the damage of the civil war. As regards when to close Tulu Kapi project finance and launch the project: “as fast as conditions on the ground allow such that safety and security is assured” and that simply depends on how quickly we are physically able to move freely around the district and do our work including that required by the banks’ own teams of inspectors. The full team has been in-country throughout the troubles and is engaging with the relevant government and other parties to move as fast as responsible security management permits.

Simply by becoming a producer earlier through a toll deal would probably take us up to 50p quite quickly and then onto £1 as there is certainty about that revenue and investors in a risk off environment pile money into revenue generators. If condor can become a producer and take all risk out of further dilutiobs with the sort of upside discussed its a whole new world of investors and institutions. Failing that maybe land buy is worth 5p and release of decent BFS maybe 10p. However without a rush to gold we are treading water with cash going out of business just as fast as value is created and sentiment is against explorers. MC could offer a small stake alongside or some additional benefit but this should have all happened 12 months ago as Calibre are in process of buying a new company to add to their portfolio so management time will be less. I feel the Calibre board have more to gain in short and long-term from a deal than not and i think the issue is MC not moving the red lines and making it happen. There does appear to be a lof of thinking going into each decision on cement etc to lower costs and in some cases should step back and look and big picture and see the speed can often be biggest cost saver when every month of no revenue probably costs £400k at least.

Webinar was good and we are making good progress but if MC wants to get this share up to £1 where he thinks it should be he needs to create those key events happen. On the toll the question is really why Calibre after after all these years would be teasing Condor? What do they stand to gain from meeting after meeting? We have to assume they are serious and so is Condor but it all comes down to numbers and Condor need to accept or get close to Calibre terms and move on. The value is created for Condor more in the share price and subsequent minimisation of dilution further down the road than the straightforward revenue share. Obviously it needs to deliver favourably but there is plenty of cash to play for as MC said that an ounze of gold is worth less than $30 so here he is talking about $1800 so there is good value creation opportunity. A producing mine is worth a lot more than a maybe producer in 12+ months. if Condor want to start growing the share price they need to focus on these types of events. If Calibre have teased Condor for years and one day they want to make an offer the boot will be on the other foot and i am sure there will be payback so it stands to reason Calibre need to stay close to Condor and make a deal happen.

Just in Pradesh from article “So far, 196 projects with a combined capacity to produce 859.11 crore litres “ so as CNEL was paying for PR in India from auditors investigation then we should be benefiting from deals. The number of projects across whole of India must be huge. Our order book should have grown in the last 12 months. we will see hopefully by end of February if BOD plan to twist the knife on their shareholders or show their faces and make amends for their catastrophic lack of openness with everyone.

This unlocks TK financing as Harry largely said this was key reason for delay. Now it is removed he really has no reasons to not progress. Surprised shareprice has moved a little more strongly on the news and this could bring forward financing and certainly make the Feb-May window far more likely.

Certainly the EPS is off the chart compared to the shareprice of .45 before suspension. We were hitting 0.11 going back to 2017 and .15 in 2019 so the equity for dividend is, as TopMoney says, in the $40m bracket and double our market cap just in accrued profits. However as Mills mentions there is the question of cash in the attic. The CNEL strategy appears to be that CNEL effectively advance infrastructure to companies so we effectively lend money to get projects off the ground. Part of the raise in 2020 was all about having the cash to fund the bigger deals they were pursuing but were not able to unlock so we know from the IPO document the fund raise was deployed to new projects. This has meant that CNEL has never appeared to have much cash in the bank and would need to wait until the end of a development to get that cash back, whereupon they tended to re-invest the cash into another project. I believe their strategy is beneficial although there are some risks and downsides to shareholders and especially where we are not getting a small carry equity stake. There is easily room to offer a $.04 final dividend to create a 10% yield that would help re-rate the stock coming back to the market and resume its IPO price and be almost inconsequential to the cash balance as it would be $2m or so. They talked of a maiden dividend in the 2020 interims so it would be fairly catastrophic and extremely poor form to, given the totally disastrous last 9 months, to pull the rug under the circumstances. Every investor should be contacting key people in the company to make their recommendations as the company is just 2 key people and a few non-execs sitting on $40m and we have a market cap of less than half of that today and in one of the high growth sectors of the market and at the cutting edge of the technology in Ethanol production. As TopMoney says we should be $200m valuation for starters as surely Ethanol growth will run for a long-time as the world moves to E10 and we have barely started.

Was the webinar from London or was he out in Nicaragua? Looking forward to listening when it is released but presume that is tomorrow but looks to be plenty of action and upside this quarter pending news. If they can conclude a Calibre toll this will be a major major gamechanger and it is good to know they have got serious again. There is clearly more to those talks as frankly a toll deal could be agreed pretty easily so i think we need to move our red lines and close that deal. its probably worth 20p a share and probably more as it should reduce funding needs. Talk of 5-10m now sounds bullish so in MCs head we might have passed the 5m mark and just a case of proving it up. We have had no news since Nov 30th so we should get something shortly as if MC sees his short-term target of £1 then he had better have some pretty spectacular news.

I think fevertree has meant they are taking security seriously. Shame they did not think of that last September when i guess Kefi staff going to TK should have taken some secuity to tag along with an AK47. i did wonded if they might go virtual but u hope they are not coming to London just for this. They could do it from Ethiopia in that case and get on with the job in hand. At the end of the day they did not have to organise anything so have to give them credit. Most companies on back of recent issues would be burying heads. We need to get concerned when we do not hear from board and plenty of those companies on AIM.

Hope your right about the dividend as that would be a gamechanger and mean we come back with a punch upwards. However i am not sure from where you heard this or not as they are finalising the accounts currently so anyone who can push this with the directors should do so now. If the board want some reward simply take it out the front door with everyone else. Even a small and manageable £2m dividend would give our board around £1m to share. Really also need to push to get another person, at least, to join the board and make sure we get oversight from contracts and a focus on external communications as oddly we find out they appear to be happy to throw huge sums on PR but simply we ever knew or saw anyting of those considerable investments. i am sure they have spent £500k or more to get back to HKex but just imagine if they spent even 1/2 of that before on proper PR and marketing they could have probably headed towards that £200m market cap and grow the investor base and clients. If they do not change the auditors will flag up new issues next year and we will be right back to the same situation.

Eqtec would do wonders to release some updated news so markets can feel that 2022 is on track and not slip the same way 2021 did. The market is being smashed today by the probable unwinding of the Bitcoin bubble and the mass exodus to cash, which is quickly running out of all exchanges, and so many other global events. Not a good day in general that catches all stocks but any company putting out good news over coming days could expect to see a lot of interest as investors look for a safe haven in companies they can trust to grow and reach targets. Lets hope we get some key news this week as we are due some given DP said lack of progress on some deals were only pushed back a little. We are now 1 month into 2022 so surely some of that delay should be around now.

Looks like a combination of the Bitcoin bubble, inflation worries, interest hikes and Putin all having an market impact together but why is gold not jumping? Surely gold and Swiss franc is all that remains of safe havens but gold seems very unloved. Even Bitcoin that appeared to try and take the safe haven mantle is 50% down and it is just a matter of time before Crypto exchanges stop withdrawals as their cash holdings are depleted. I suspect some exchanges will stop withdrawals very soon as they did back in the last Crypto crash that everyone forgets. if investors are no longer able to convert crypto to cash what will the price be? The question also is how this impacts gold prices as so far it seems all this is causing gold to fall. some people might sell off their gold first to stem their losses elsewhere . Come on MC it is a perfect time to release some good news for Condor so investors can move into Condor. The lack of news for several months is not helping.