Member Info for Simms45

Not unusual imo when a company does a placing with free warrants where you have some investors who will sell at placing price and keep warrants but create an artificial overhang price at placing price of 35p that can last many months. Sometimes its the underwriter or advisors paid with shares. There has been limited share propelling news in meantime but with the rise in gold and simply getting nearer to F-day should have propelled us forward as groundworks continue apace. i partly knash my teeth why MC needed to do a placing 15p below Majestic at 50p so close to financing in Q1 and throw warrants into a group of investors that for all we know are selling. It also works for JM who might have demanded warrants as he knows only too well how this can hold back a share price and given his likely mine finance participation could have strategically done this. MC will need to break the 35p offloaders and get us up to 50-60p at least or his plans on a share price heading over £1.50 are toast and his shareholding will also be diluted away. What we need is strategically important news. He probably also regrets not agreeing a toll deal (even one less than 50/50) as it would have meant a much higher share price before this placing and he would have kept his eye on the bigger prize. Lets hope we get something strategically valuable prior to Christmas as he must know what the market will wake up t.

Also had a short update from Ivy that corroborates update from Richard :

“The IIC is reviewing the draft of the report and looking for a new auditor in this stage.”

If i can read between lines you would only be looking for a new auditor if the IIC has in their hands a decent report so i take this as a positive but so much time and wasted managerial effort, and no doubt cost, when the management should have simply spent some time on communication releasing to Hkex contracts with PR agencies in India and so forth and all this investigation would have never happened as the board would have shown transparency. Will the board learn that all of this was easily averted by basic standards of communication? I suspect not but have to stay positive someone will knock their heads together.

Could be the thaw we need and as predicted when Blinken from US arrived. It could appear that the TPLF only had plans to show their strength and now they have got everyones attention are probably in a good negotiating position, whatever that might be. If we get some serious talks of peace and supported by other actors then that is only going to help Kefi in short and medium term. if we can get back to the status quo, probably all what is possible, that should help proceedings. could be a good week next week if we get some serious peace traction.

i suspect anyone investing in any mining stocks have faired pretty badly over the last 9 months without some fortunate timing and held back their powder for today. Kefi has actually bizarrely help up pretty well given the moderate mess as most are down 50%+. Now everyone is back to work or exited into Crytoland there are just a few crazy people left actually looking to invest in something that is real. Crazy people the lot of us. btw i remember clearly the last Crypto crash in Dec 2017 when the doors on the way out got very narrow as fiat reserves were depleted from all exchanges. watch this space as i suspect a repeat could unfold. For a $3 trillion crypto market there is probably not even 2% of dollar reserves in exchanges to cover all that. Anyway happy for several of my friends who are up 40-50x in last 12 months. you have to accept the risk with the potential reward but i still see in the balance of probability that Tulu Kapi is still on track.

I was all for a placing to get this project financing OTL many months ago. However Harry was very adamant on his webinar that he and the main shareholders did not want that. This was pre civil uprising, but i would like to think Kefi and Rab Capital can work something out to keep us running operating as the BOD and contractors have before taken shares in lieu of pay etc and at these levels that might make sense if they believe they are going to turn the corner. I am sure Kefi and Rab Capital can organise something as we are inching forward and Harry has plenty of motivations to finalise this. The RNS is very encouraging regardless of civil unrest and Harry and team are working on what they can in the meantime. Hawiah is now maybe just a few weeks away and i am suspecting peace talks and new updates from Kefi in the meantime.

Investors chipping away at the .999 overhang but whittling down as we speak. Would be nice to break the penny on the ASK.
0.999 216,186 08:00
1 200,000 MREX 07:51
1 200,000 STFL 07:56
1.1 200,000 PEEL 07:56
1.2 1,000,000 08:09
I am personally happy our extension is only moved until end of January as we really do need to focus all parties. While the church has made a binding jump it might not count so much in dollar terms but has some weight in Ethiopia society. Peace talks seem to be talked about more openly so lets hope so soon.

Hawiah also confirmed for updated MRE in December.
From the presentation its looking very positive so moving very quickly. As some have said Hawiah at this rate could be built about the same time as TK. Hawiah is great as its largely open pit mining so pretty straight forward.

“Early statistical analysis confirms mineralisation delineated during the recent drilling programmes is of higher grade, which will aid to improve the overall Project economics;
• The PEA model indicates that expansion of tonnage by 30%, combined with 5% higher grade, increases NPV8 to KEFI by US$60M (£45M or 2 pence per share) from US$100M to US$160M at November 2021 metal prices;
• PFS elements have been awarded and an experienced team of consultants has been assembled to help deliver the PFS in 2022 to commence development 2023;”

Exactly what market needs to see that the project is moving forward under difficult circumstances and with the local church involved certainly a big plus to see the community both fully behind project but also invested to reap rewards for everyone. Feeling more confident we are reaching our destination.

Its always hard to know what is really going on. The EG argue any aid ends up with TPLF fighters and they confiscate trucks and TPLF argue EG only put enough petrol in for one way trip and Tigray has limited petrol and argue EG blocking aid. so hard to find anything that is clear and probably far more nuanced. Main thing is decent movement by key actors to get some peace and maybe aid trucks need Independent forces to make sure it gets to where it is needed and back out again. Cant really imagine EG are stopping aid trucks to civilians as you are not exactly going to win support.

The 32m could have been the reason for the downward trend as possibly this trade might been around a few days before it was filled today as 1.23 was quite low. Certainly the shareprice quickly rebounded as the day has wore on which is more in line with momentum in this sector. Lets hope we get some RNS next week as Velocys and PHE have all posted COP26 related project signings and Eqtec should not miss this opportunity. Why would Gerry be selling at 1.23p as that might not be the wisest time to exit, well i hope not anyway :)

I think a government that has invested $20m into Tulu Kapi and is a 20% shareholder and whom have openly spoken of the strategic need to generate dollar reserves, of which TK would be biggest single project in Ethopia for this purpose you do get a strong picture that they are not only part of the project but also its main champion arranging bank finance and so forth. It would be hard to imagine the government not being 100% committed/behind the project on this basis? There are many African countries in constant flux so this not uncommon and plenty of useful articles posted from other posters about continued investments into the country during this time so the government and banks are keeping the country moving. I do not mind you playing devils advocate but we understand your dislike of Harry but would appreciate if you can reference some articles and new information in the public domain that can add to the understanding. Otherwise you simply are providing a personal opinion that has little relevance. For example do you not think that the sum of the parts of Kefi are not worth more than its current £19m valuation today? What do you think Artan might value its 32% stake and the valuation of TKs IP and tax losses that have a value of around 20%. That would be constructive if you can provide some depth your analysis.

Reading several news outlets there is definitely a stronger narrative towards a peace accord of some sort on the offing and even the US seem to be finally adjusting their position to be seen to be less supportive of the TPLF and they have taken off the table any possible sanctions for now. While the US operate a very different global agenda frankly their change of tune is very important as it felt they have been emboldening the TPLF as if the US are supporting them. The biggest hint of peace is from the Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo who has now been meeting the key people in all groups and saying today "that an initial proposal for peace could emerge soon." if some peace talks come in the next few weeks then it might work for Kefi as they were largely already reworking the security report so i would not immediately write TK off. While this conflict has come at the worst possible time for Kefi the key is to keep it short so little or nothing gets entrenched. This really does depend if talks can commence shortly, even if the detail will rumble on. At £19m this is potentially very high reward but not the the faint hearted. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/12/ethiopia-peace-blueprint-tigray-conflict-resolution/

There is absolutely no chance the government are not 100% behind Kefi and the mine build and already invested close to $20m to date. Of course the government will keep rolling it over in the circumstances. Remember Kefi own the BFS and all technical studies needed for financing and sitting on £60m of sunk investment cost that has a huge tax value. Even in the wildest imagination MOM give license to someone else they would need to start from scratch and take 2 years and many millions to just get back to where Kefi is today. it would be much better to focus on Kefi is in a backwater well out of the way and Kefi needed to get the security report completed to satisfaction of investors and you might well find that we on the final corner to sign off. i am realistic we need some peace in place but i cant really imagine the TPLF are going to hang on to their advance for very long so they are also on borrowed time.

There is the media clickbait pushing a narrative that suits their commercial interests and the reality of companies saying its business as nearly usual and good to see investment continuning now while things are not tickety boo, so to speak in the country. The government will strongly be pushing business as usual as usual as they will want to show continued control of the situation but if you watch youtube channels on Ethiopia its completely quiet and everyone living oblivious. The TPLF are just making their voice heard strongly and they will surely get a bigger outcome as and when some negotiation is started. Bear in mind Abiy got his nobel prize by making peace with Eritrea so he is well versed in tricky diplomacy. Key is to get those talks moving so this does not become entrenched. You never know that EG will double down on the Kefi gold mine and potentially other investors will do likewise to prove they can operate and not be bullied by the TPLF. That sort of spirit grows in these scenarios. I think progress is moving to get this OTL but i know we will need to see peace achieved of some sort. However this could be achieved quite soon given all the people and countries involved.

Go back just 2 years and Eqtec was a backwater company and not until an ambitious CEO came on the scenes did Eqtec take off. From an almost standing start so much has been achieved in little under 2 years and through a pandemic that hit paperwork and logistics hard. everything Eqtec has released has shown continued forward momentum. I do get the point about share price but that is not always correctly priced and coincides with the sell off since the armchair Robinhood investors went back to work or moved wholesale to crypto as i suspect. Velocys and PHE now signed some decent deals at COP26 and i hope Eqtec are also holding back something for next week maybe. We will shoot past 2p on confirmation of the £15m revenue as it will underpin confidence in 2022 numbers and so on and there is so much news to potentially come in that has been considerably held back. I suspect some profits from PHE and Velocys will find its way over to Eqtec today. Quiet before the storm.

If my maths is correct if we high grade Mestiza through a 500 tonne a day at 6 grams of gold that would still convert to nearly 40k ounzes a year shared between Mako and ourselves. After costs and even if we split 50/50 could be $20m a year clear profit. That would change plenty and stir our market cap from its current levels. Almost an argument to, similar to GGP, to just find the gold and then do a deal with another miner to process. anyway i think Mako is a great option also.

The market is starting to correct and copper per tonne will again test $10k a tonne and gold shooting up to $1860 so at the very least a backdrop of a gold and copper rally can do wonders for investor appetite. Harry really has made a pigs ear of not completing the TK finance while he had 9 months of stability in Ethiopia so we can hope he is making this oven ready for peace talks that could happen realistically anytime but its clear TPLF have no intention to walk into Addis and try and get something out of this strategy. at same time i can equally see EG not wanting to talk to someone they consider a terrorist group and going at them but lets hope they park egos as both will lose if they keep this war charade up.

I think if gold gets back to testing $1900 or onwards to $2000 then there will be a market correction for gold stocks including those not in production like Condor as any improving gold price will surely help with financing monentum and gold offtake agreements. Surely however rising gold price must make a toll more profitable for all parties. Something must happen as MC cant limp to a placing next year at these absurdly low levels. He must doubledown and go back and get a toll over the line at anything over our very low value for our gold in the ground and deliver market csp transformation as opposed to dilutive transformation. If Condor can jump to become a producer of 40k ounzes the market will derisk Condor and value accordingly. Lets consider a placing at nearer £1 and this is where we would be once gold toll is operating. I think MC said 3 months is needed but maybe a lot of work has already been done. to have mentioned it again after quietly dropping should mean something. They are probably haggling over whether its 50/50 split of 40/60 when laughably even 30/70 is worth more to Condor shareholders strategically to make sure the market cap is respectable if we then needed a placing. If toll was good we would barely need one and forward sell the gold.

We have £3bn just for starters (our share £1bn) but we are advised this is just the tip of the iceberg so could be far far more in time but key is it is very lucrative already to get a PFS together and mine in development. Good or bad Artan (partner) are keen to keep increasing their stake if necessary to fund project snd dilute Kefi a little so that probably suits us for now while TK gets resolved. At the very least Kefi has a free ride on this massive asset with a massive cash rich partner who is pushing fast to get this mine built. its a nice piggy bank to look forward to. Just now need some peace talks asap for Ethiopia and could be still on before end of January and for Harrys sake end of December but he should take this on the nose as he faffed around too much this year and you gotta make hay while the sun shines. Still confident we can conclude TK as mines are built much closer to wars all over Africa so this is pretty par for the course.

For a management team to spend £2m+ for relisting on a more onerous exchange than AIM to then do anything that is purportedly dodgy does to me sound unlikely, although you just never know. As i said before back on AIM they could have simply bought out shareholders for peanuts and gone private and done what you like. They have $20m or so in share equity account so any day management could have announced a £5m dividend and since they have over 60% of company would have taken £1m clean each. Surely they do not need to do anything so blatant and so easily audited and in a country where you probably do not want to be on the wrong side of the law. We will find out but management are grossly incompetent with basic communication. they could redeem themselves but even moving to HK and a clean slate was still a wall of silence. Lets hope some new board members can be added, add oversight to all contracts and announce that dividend. i am dreaming but its so clear what the board need to do and transform CNEL as it has so much potential to be a global leader but yet they squander everything. The most baffling company i have ever come across that has so much to talk shout about but no-one apart from a handful of people know. Lets hope for a clearing of the airwaves and some proper humble pie from board and new vigour. There i go again dreaming how it might be done my almost everyone except our board.