Member Info for Simms45

All i was trying to say is that the greatest value creation will happen when the mine is operational. while i do not expect dividend in first even 2nd year you also need to bear in mind the management team are also keen to extract value so unless a sales comes along at the right price then dividends will be in focus. Mellon could hold 25%+ of the company by then and practically decide what happens. i suspect he will want some pay back for 12 years of patient investment. so that dividend could be far sooner if a sale is not sooner but would need to be a decent return for Mellon. I also understood that as part of the BFS we would get a timetable of development? I am still hopeful a deal is penciled in for other key parts of the mine so we can ship in and get up quickly. what we do not want is to go into a queue for equipment and have delays. better to make sure the key parts of the mine are operation as quickly as possible. Mellon saying production this year seems a bit optimistic but early part of 2023 might be doable. Obviously a toll agreement is what Calibre should offer if they want any involvement in a future sale of Condor. it costs them nothing and they win brownie points. By turning Condor down on the toll they are losing millions of profits for themselves and shareholders and means a future deal is less likely. The sooner we start crushing the ore the better as we can create a nice stockpile ready for gold to be extracted. Lets hope next week is the starting gun on a series of news updates as i agree that 2.5 months is a long time but MC must be aware more than anyone that he needs a share-price well north of 50p to ensure any dilution is minimised. This is why the toll is worth a lot of Condor, but equally to Calibre in other ways.

Just in the first year of production we could theoretically pay out a 30p dividend. That will not happen but it might in the second year but obviously it makes no sense to the management to sell the company and it should not make sense either to shareholders. There is a huge amount of high grade gold and gold prices will likely rise with or without Russia help as inflation is out of control. Personally i am focusing on the next phase when we will know how quickly our mine will be operational. We are close and sentiment will quickly appear and a daresay 50p that based on the way shares are tightly held could be in a single day on some news.

Certainly a level of frustration has creeped in here. I have always said from the earliest time i bought into Eqtec that this is not about the tech or the order pipeline or any of the technical aspects as it is spot-on but is all about the pinch points of having so many projects at numerous stages and not enough foot soldiers. Eqtec have grown so quickly from such a small base. It only takes issues like patent infringement or Northfork woes and this draws all the key figures away that will have knock on effects. So far no deal has collapsed and one of the greatest strengths of Eqtec is the spread of projects so while one might go quiet for a while another will take up the reigns. Therefore we just need to wait a little longer but the scale of the future is still as big as it ever was. The last round of warrants was for 1.5p to staff so i strongly believe those days will be shortly upon us given the unassailable market position we have globally from a technology and turnkey operation. If you look at almost any AIM stock most havetaken a 50%+ knock in the last 12 months tracking Eqtec so regardless of fundamentals there has largely been a move from AIM overall. The market will return as we have effectively had a long drawn out stock market crash that looks to have unfolded and most AIM stocks are incredibly cheap but the market is unloved. Very frustrating we are expecting a few key projects to be signed off by DP as we were told they just missed December and will be in Q1. If that is the case confidence will quickly fill this board. Next week could bring some positive news.

Glad HKex are going to hold the board to make good on audit requirements and i am sure one of the requirements for relisting is open and transparent reporting. The quarterly updates must have dismayed them as it said nothing so they have more work to do. As you say the audit made recommendations so they must deliver the basics of independent review to reign in the cosy side deals of the Chairman with his mates at trumped up prices with on deliverables of note. We will see i guess in the financial report how wonderful all his PR deals were in generating sales in India and elsewhere. Hopefully the last of the cosy side deals are going to be closed down.

Lets not lose sight of the gold in the ground is not going anyway and maybe extractable soon with a toll or 12+ months with our own shovels. Gold mines take a very long time and patience is needed. There are opportunities to trade along the way when you look in the rearview mirror but hard to know as news can change everything. I suspect the big gains are ahead of us over next 12 months towards 90p or 50% of NPV and then lets see if we close the NPV gap. Personally i will stay.

For me this is not an “if” statement but merely a “when” as sadly i am no trader to know that i would be a lot richer. events like BFS and toll would close the gap. I am long investor here so value will be attributed in the end and would say before 31st March i suggest we will be a good way north of today. Even BAU is closing the gap and reducing the time to complete the mine. We are well advanced on site prep so if MC can acquire some further second hand equipment it can be brought onsite quickly and shave time. Need to simply focus all energy on earliest revenue we can and then build from their.

Well our bank finance is coming from the bank where the Ethiopian government is a major shareholder so the government already knows if the bank finance is in place and have been told it is so that is not lilely to change. Sure there are risks but i cant see anyone winning from canceling a license? all the jobs, resettlement that the government sees today would go up in smoke immediately. Thats 100s of jobs lost immediately and Ethiopia will be put back 10 years in its mining ambitions as Imternational investors would never invest given Kefi has spent $60m over 12 years so there is massive consequences. All license lost so far are good for Kefi as they are largely miners looking to flip and done 0 with the land so are not even on same page. Miners lose licenses all the time on this basis. Only 6 months ago MOM awarded massive new license area to Kefi precisely because Kefi is one of only serious mining propositions investing. MOM are more likely to want to offer additional licenses to Kefi hoping once TK is otl they will invest in other areas. Its fine to play devils advocate but need to base it on what we know in the public domain. It seems people have inside information on personal relationships of Harry and MOM? The loss of any license has never really been even on the radar given we have been awarded further licenses so recently.

I have a sense this is the calm before the storm. We know there is some set pieces before the end of Q1 and if we Condor can agree a toll before that we are going to be a great place and then why not 50% of our NPV at 90p? Personally I would be happy with 33% of the NPV at 60p in all honesty but we are closing in on knowing key information that will determine how quickly we can start to empty the bank vault. Pre-sale tickets still going for 30p :)

We just need the key players around the table in Ethiopia and get things moving as still looks a fair amount of document signing, which is frustrating but i suspect while unrest was happening things were frozen and these sort of things tend to all happen at once but key is that all documents are actually with all respective parties. All the key parties have stated to be wanting this to happen so my reading this is all about sorting out the issues holding this up. Clearly the resettlement is high on list of priorities from MOM as Kefi is emphasising this in RTN and Kefi will want improved security around the mine to unlock insurance and satisfy they will have a good run at the build without issues. There is a dance to be done here but every meeting is a step closer and he can only do that if he is in Ethiopia. Certainly a lot better than him wandering around Waterloo late at night. Frustrated but things can change very quickly here with the right sort of noises. Today the valuation for the entire company is £20m so that is basically 0 for TK and barely any valuation at all for Saudi assets so there is plenty of scope here. However all depends on action and not talk.

With governments 20% stake already largely invested the meetings we can be reasonably confident of their continued support and i am sure are as frustrated as the MOM to work out how to push this forward as it will be biggest ethiopian dollar export project so massively important. We need to remember Kefi is the first mover into Ethiopia opening the mining to international development and the MOM from the sounds are learning as they go. Its all been a mess and Harry language has been fast and loose but as long as hes in Ethiopia going to every ministry and getting bits of paper signed i will be happier. Nothing is going happen from London.

Harry is cancelling investor forum and getting out to Ethiopia to get the TK show on the road. Looks like things could be about to change for the positive and maybe that window up to May is possible.

still firmly suspended but perhaps a slow rehabilitation now independent review gives the all clear.
https://www.hkex.com.hk/Market-Data/Securities-Prices/Equities/Equities-Quote?sym=1156&sc_lang=en
I am not expecting trading to start until latter end of March 2022 at the earliest. Given we have suffered 10 months i really want them to return with a bang and plan accordingly as a poor return will probably lead to bigger investors forcing the board to make serious changes and apply pressure that us PIs cannot.

So SP Angel report is basing their valuation on just 50% of the NPV. Therefore technically on completion of a successful mine this would appear to imply a valuation of £1.82, which could be 12-16 months away. Report is well written and plenty of room for improvement even on the 50% NPV at 91p. Even seeing 60p in the next 3 months would be still well below where we should be once all risks of execution are removed and we are in production. Looks to me a very strong cashflow generator. Also in 2024 cashflow is showing around $240m. That is a very big return as it is 4 times more than our current valuation in just one year, although looks to be closer to $80m on average per year. That would do nicely!

Would love to hear what investors in the HK IPO think about all of this who bought at almost 10p. We are just a few but i do wonder if theHrecent investors are not a lot madder, given their significant losses. Apologies if i perhaps have laboured some points but i am angry that this could all be so different and with so little investment in time and energy. they are breaking new territory but cannot do the most basic of investor relations exercises that would massively assist them to grow internationally. Frankly at this time and their approach it clear they will not sell a bean outside of China. I am sure even if companies approach them they are being ignored but their non sensical website is the killer really. what international company working in English would get anything from their website in regards to sales and marketing materials. There is 0 PR. The UK website is so old and there is no news. we need to forget international expansion in reality of what we can see on the ground as while it is their for the taking they have ignored and in fairness China is a big market. I will wait to see how they approach going back onto the HKex as it will speak volumes about the future. At the same time i do not want to sell early as i think that is exactly the strategy of the board to buy up investors shares on the cheap and perhaps one day actually start to make waves as we have $40m of profit banked but only worth $20 so only taking 50p in the £ and that is without thinking of the company growth. That would be very frustrating but a big lesson learnt.

Its painful to read sometimes how a company like Eqtec (not dissimilar to CNEL in many ways) but how much the board shares with investors outlining projects and so forth and building honesty and an increasing shareholder base that all works to their advantage when they need if. Why on earth CNEL cannot share projects clearly and concisely is beyond me and no one should apologise to any of the board that have systematically destroyed shareholder value and offered no tangible information to its investors. The last 9 months when they were supposed to update investors they offered nothing, just laughed. So far nothing has changed and we can pray by hook or by crook the board do so they can push on to $200m market cap, maybe buy a few companies for shares (not cash with mates where there is a massive conflict of interests ). Lets keep pressure on the board however we can and force a change of behaviour. Not pushing Eqtec but investors here will spot the similarities and differences. https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EQT/trading-update-ss99bb8sxiv5il1.html

Very Solid update. Eqtec are the real deal. team, business strategy, right market, patents….. Keeping the powder dry for Deeside and Southport and then onwards. £90m market cap is pin money. Confident we should be £250m by year end if we hit financial closures and revenue targets. 2022 is going to be a good year for investors. Wherever you parked your money in 2021 it is probably faired poorly as it was an anihilation for many but there is bargains all over the stock market today and Eqtec is up their with the best of them.

Well balanced mills. The other question is do we need to also wait for the 31st December 2021 full year results as well as we are on the borderline if they plan to come back to the HKex in the next month or so? The rationale might be they do a maiden dividend for 2021 results and not 2020 as while they did release unaudited results they had not have their board meeting to decide on a dividend or not. Obviously they have room for both and given the shareholder bashing it might be wise but we could get 3 set of results delivered before coming back to the Hkex. I suspect they will wait for all of them so that would probably be end of March or even longer given the time it would take. If they were quick they could release just 2020 audited and half yearly and get back end of February and then release 2021 at end of March. However my fear is board will come back to the exchange with a whimper and the general news blackout and that would create more instability. i am hopeful the HKex will not stand for that anymore and only allow them back as per their requirements to fully update shareholders with all news relating to the company.

Gold mines should be largely based on NPV with some caveats. Its largely a bank vault (indicated) and we are only allowed to withdraw a certain amount (ounzes produced) over a period of time (mine life). There is risk but it is a relatively straightforward calculation and increasing NPV is pretty simple to see as we know mine life will be 50 years if we prove a 5-10m district and push NPV higher. Its then up to investors to decide how likely and believable that might happen. At the moment investors think the mine is not happening (until we have finance) and other factors. There is every reason to expect us to deliver the mine within a 12-16 month window (shorter i seem to remember if it was in Canada as the mine is very basic and nothing complicated from and all site preparations are largely ready to receive further deliverables. This is all open pit also so far less risk. Key event apart from obvious toll or land etc is the BFS and finance completion so the NPV can be stronger and more believable. We should get a better idea of when a mine will be operational very shortly and finance is almost certainly ready but waiting on toll etc to see if any dilution can be reduced and improve the finance deal. We should know a lot more before the 31st March as this is largely the deadline for everything to fall into place and i expect february will have a silver lining. if MC met with Calibre more than 1 month ago then that is a good deal of time to conclude the deal and every day we do not have a toll is costing us.

Same happened with previous deadline. Its good to have some confirmation at some point but i am more interested in how long the extension might be. Personally a short one is helpful to bounce all these entities into action. The last short extension did help so a little more of the same would be good. Harry also knows time is limited on his side as he cant keep on saying financial close is imminent and then keep saying the same giving no details. he also, i suspect, with his extra shares and a bit more skin in the game (still not enough in my view) is not looking for any further dilution before closure. Ethiopia is relatviely quiet so lets get this closure completed.

thanks for more information. I think given this was explored 12 months ago and Bioneutra has increased its losses overtime and revenues falling an acquisition would end any possibility of a dividend in my view. It looks a jam tomorrow project that does not appear to be gaijmning traction. You can argue consumers are incrrasingly against sugar substitutes and its going the other way in the Western world with growth of organic and i remember neutrasweet was a fad in thr early 2000s and dropped off a cliff never to be heard of again. surely CNEL should maximise the huge opportunity to grow their core business than buy their mates businesses. Have we not learnt our lesson the hardway already. I truly hope we do not go anywhere near this sort of acquisition as its likely a disastrous consumer of cash, a distraction and possibly another suspension waiting in the wings when India and China are massive markets. All for global partners who have existing relationships but it looks like CNEL is run for sole benefit of our beloved Chairman and his friends. Hopefully a big axe will be taken by auditor to stop these shenanigans.