Member Info for Simms45

all up for foundation stone, sheesh :) still waiting for the smoking gun of a binding agreement on investor cash incoming or bank sign off proper. It looks things are aligning but the touch paper will only be lit once we get proper financial action as plenty of burnt fingers and toes over the years with Harry and his rose tinted glasses. However most people at this price can probably take this as a good punt as upside is 5-10x and downside is probably not a lot as Hawiah is motoring along and JQ is primed for licensing so there is a pretty good hedge built in and not a one trick pony. Given recent investors bought in at .8 we can get in on slightly better terms. i am probably not expecting any update before mid March and i hope it matches Harrys timetable as that would really help rebuild confidence. Not really very long now to see if this is going to fly.

With oil likely to head ever skyward as US sanction Russian oil proper how will this impact Ethanol? part of the reason Ethanol has been less adopted was partly cost relative to oil and partly supply. in regards to cost ethanol will be becoming cheaper by the day relative to oil but at the same time i know supply of raw materials for Ethanol have not been more abundant. I wonder how the next crops of raw materials for Ethanol will fair and how other countries might be looking more closely at the oil situation as Russian oil is pretty substantial. At the same time i also wonder if China will be getting a lot of cheap oil coming their way if Russia has no buyers except a few economies. Strategically CNEL should be booming as Ethanol plants are needed all over the world to keep up with demand but i do wonder how the impact on Ukraine will impact CNEL positively and negatively as there are many variables at play. CNEL are so undervalued i suspect all this will wash over CNEL and biggest impact will be board improving transparency, forward guidance and dividend. Lets hope we get results before April as that would be the first birthday of gross incompetence.

My only update from Ivy today is the following and not terribly helpful apart from we are not there yet :

“The auditors are still working on the audit.”

Kefi Valued today at £20m. We are looking at over $300m project financing package in TK and we have invested $70m of sweat equity for our circa 70% stake in the project. Plenty of room for improvement on that valuation, at least we should add $70m simply because we will convert our expenditure into a tasty 70% equity stake in 240k ounze operational gold mine. If Harry pulls it off its hats off. This is just the starting gun on the upside but its easy to imagine at pretty sizeable multiplier is possible. All we now need to do is make sure his timetable matches the RNS releases and we should see an increasing interest from investors.

Certainly all in the right direction. Key point at this stage is that we have non-binding project finance covering the whole project and warrants to cover residual so there is no reason to suspect this deal will not conclude under normal circumstances. Plenty of news looks to be penciled in for March and onwards as we continue to hit progress. we are getting closer. Fingers crossed we are into the final stretch. Gla

Given we have had so many delays i am just happy to hear Auditors are around trying to clear the fy2020 and interims. That is quite a lot to get through and 2021 finals should also now be being prepared. I do not think they can return until both years are released now although would like to get clarification as year end was 31st December so now 2 months in so they would be expected to release in April so i just cant see trading starting before we get fully up to date. That does not mean we will not be dripfed results over coming weeks but i am not expecting trading until after April. the other factor will be whether a dividend will be anounced in fy2020, interims or 2021 and of course if they provided a dividend across all periods it would be a confident return. If they return with no dividend it will simply underline that the board will continue their cosy relationships with their mates paying in advance 24 month contracts and not expect much in return. The proposed Canada deal with their school buddy was almost certainly planned to be their big payoff. IWe have got to keep up the pressure to push the board to return money to shareholders through legitimate methods.

Volumes today are tiny and until new investors move in the price will be static. Everyone is already invested and almost all in the red bar a few. There is still a relatively matched number of sells so my thoughts is someone, perhaps contractor are selling into any buying. The news today is great and always happy to get updates but there is not a lot of new information, although those gold grades look very interesting, but Artan are huge in Saudi so this will happen and Kefi need to keep it. Saudi is completely different kettle of fish as money is not the issue. Harry needs to focus 150% on TK and then the rest of history as it will unlock all underlying value in Saudi but today Saudi is valued at 0. Harry has just got to nail TK and provide real substance in March if we have a chance of closing by May. Things have definitely improved for TK but we need substance now. Gla

We have had no news for 3 months. That is not usual. My best hope is MC has got something brewing in the leadup to the BFS in less than 4 weeks or so that should start the firing gun on production. Could be a stellar month and the start of the big push northwards. I am certainly seeing that companies delivering are being rewarded and those kicking the can are getting punished. I feel like we have taken the slow boat approach so im feeling we are lining up nicely. Would be nice to see the back of 45p that i feel is very achievable and push onwards.

One issue that i have never been entirely sure about is that in these opaque placings contractors i believe are being paid in shares who are then selling into the open market for working capital, regardless of price. However when they stop selling often the price moves considerably higher so often price and news are not entirely aligned. its been a fair amount of time now since the placing and not seeing the same large trades happening so thats not to say some are not book building in the background and only releasing the trade when completed but its happened before. I was around on last .8 rise to 2.4p back in 2020 and it was a very odd movement and my only explanation was contractors. Anyway we have the bank vault with £2bn of gold but having trouble remembering the combination. With gold at 1900 our value on gold is around $25 an ounce. So once Harry and team find the combination and unlock the financing there is scope to see that value of gold in the vault drammatically rise. Fair to say that cracking that combination will involve around $1000 an ounze AISC but plenty of room for drammatic growth and thats just TK. Lets hope Harry and chums can crack that safe as would be a shame for everyone to go home empty handed!

Certainly the shareprice now appears to be unhinged from the market leading position Eqtec holds in the global market for turnkey gassification projects. We are now worth jut £75m but have a sales funnel of around £1bn and you have to remember the way Eqtec operates in that we effectively sell a win-win solution and take an equity stake in the projects so technically that sales funnel is more for Eqtec to move on than not. We are sailing through planning, we are sailing through technicalities but falling down today on financial closure. Eqtec need to grow their financiers and build the team to development team to take advantage of the opportunities. My minor disappointment is that Eqtec have not yet found the deep pockets of a major player to start to fund a lot of these projects and as a result it does feel that Eqtec are cobbling together financial arrangements and i hope that 2022 will be the year we professionalise the financing side of the equation. This is not uncommon given we have literally relaunched the company proper in 2019 but the moving of several projects penciled in for completion in Q1 further into the year has upset a few people. This is just expected given the scaling up we are witnessing but 2022 and 2023 should be highly profitable and revenue multipliers. It certainly feels we have overshot the correction so my view is there is a great opportunity for investors to take advantage. When Eqtec gets back its mojo we will quickly leap past 1.5p, which for me is a key beachhead given this was the recent placing and share awards price for staff.

Starting to see real companies putting their name out in the open is a great sign. Lets hope we are into the final 4 months to close TK but we should see more proof in coming month and if we do Kefi will rise rapidly as we are grossly undervalued on the basis of financial closure of TK. Prefer Harry to be out in Ethiopia but given he had high level meetings in Ethiopia he does appear very confident. Would be nice to see us around 1.5p over next few months with a little newsflow to offset the tarnished 2021 washout.

it might well help for Mr Seaberg to make an appearance as it will show a broader management team and Seaberg is top draw based on his success at Calibre. I always hoped his appointment was strategic for both companies but the lack of toll deal has dampened my hopes as you might have felt that would have been sorted quickly given he was the CFO at Calibre previously on the other side. The last placing was 42p and he was instrumental in that but it has had a big drag on the shareprice so i think some of those shares ended in underwriter hands and depressed the price but could be changing rapidly. Really we should zoom up to 42p as the volume was pitiful on the way down so should be the same the other way. The max 6 week countdown is upon for the release of the BFS, as i assume he largely has it in place already and if he get that toll otl all bets of dilution might be off as e might not need a placing at all, or perhaps Calibre will get some golden shares into the mix and save everyone the bother but time for action.

The way i also read a lot of the RNS is that a lot is procedural and with MOM and EG so i would hope we get monthly updates on progress in line with MOM request from Kefi so the MOM will be making sure it is npt holding anything up. Yes i prefer to be investing today but this is risk and reward and we only need to get some critical information in advance of financial closure to know it is happening and it could come sooner than later. Obviously the later it is does not help. Many curveballs have been thrown and i will openly say Harry has been overly ambitious in his language for financial closure for far too long but people close to the project including bank finance, MOM, EG and investors have stood by and have insider information on what is really going on so it might look worse to us than it really is as otherwise everyone would have run a mile and not to be part of any bad press. Have to assume things are happening, just that we are not aware of any machinations.

With ballooning energy prices Eqtec have signed power offtake agreements closer to current wholesale prices. This will massively increase the economics of the plant. Its a silver lining we have this opportunity. As to financial close it was Eqtec delaying and not any of case so it looks to me fiancial closure is in their control to a large extent. So we have close pushed back a few months but ultimately the financial economics will have mushroomed as wholesale energy prices are 5x last september. while some might be momentarily dissappointed we have 13 projects all over the place and each will drop in time. i see this as positive for Eqtec in the medium term, however momentarily disappointing a delay might be but it is for good reason.

“The Company has also received updated indicative terms for power offtake from three investment grade, bankable power operators, with improved pricing in line with current wholesale electricity market prices. The Company is evaluating these offers in conjunction with the recent syngas-to-chemicals offtake opportunities to find the optimal revenue mix for the Project.



The Project has existing planning permission for advanced thermal conversion and EQTEC's revised planning approval both improves the economics of the Project and reduces the size of the footprint of the plant.”

Not being funny but were most of those predictions in a downwards direction as the whole of AIM is a bombed out wreck over last 6-12 months. Not a lot of headway anywhere even when good news is released. Most down 50% or more. Market is very much risk off at the moment and Eqtec is not exactly helping itself with limited key RNS announcements on financial closures. Underlying business is largely firing on all cylinders so need to wait for valuation gap to close but looks like a waiting game. Any lower and Eqtec might attract vulture funds!

Great to hear something on the stock market is not a bombed out wreck as AIM is littered with almost worthless companies and feel that the tide has fully gone out. Time for the tide to come in and release and for Condor to release some seismic news. If the toll was discussed at length pre christmas surely something would have moved along in 2 months. I appreciate legals might take some time and best timing for this and other news is probably 6 weeks before BFS but to get real momentum here we need a full house, toll, land and BFS. we can only hope the 2.5 month quiet is the buildup to something more tangible.

While it was expected personally have a preferred a little tighter deadline. $70m is now the investment to date so far that will form our equity into the project so if TK goes ahead we covert that $70m into our 70% equity ownership of the $320m project. Its a huge reward but as we have seen it comes with big risks. if July is the new MOM deadline and Harry was saying Feb - May we must start to see by March serious steps completed so we should know soon enough. Certainly its looks the EG and MOM are doing what they can so lets now hope Harry follows through. Its for Harry to deliver but if he converts the $70m, that includes his salary over the years, shareholders will have nothing to complain about we will need to see updates in March that start to cross the t’s and dot those i’s.

Compared to market cap we have a mountain of profit and future prospects but this is not the issue, it has and always has been the way the board have operated the company as a mini fiefdom. We have forced upon the company oversight and auditors and Hkex are on to them closely so for me one of the biggest positive steps is the forced change of behaviour of directors. This alone could be worth a big boost followed by dividend. We live and hope. the same company operated by a transparent management we would be 2-4x todays market valuation at least.

Technically i suspect CNEL must sign off draft 2020 accounts and final shareholder report, half yearly interims and then the final year to 31st December 2021 as that is normally expected end of March. Whether they can relist just on audited 2020 and interims i am not sure about as that might imply they need to relist soon. As i have said i want all good news released prior to relisting so we have a good restart but we will see. A double bumper profit would be nice and a dividend. we should have a big war chest and as long as we dont throw all that cash away of buying mates businesses and get proper oversight on deals we should be in a much better place.

I am not expecting a dividend early but just comparing that free cashflow could easily payout 30p+ once in production so saying how cheap we are today. Once the cashflow comes in and we have paid off any expensive mine finance debt in 12 months as MC says i would actually expect Condor to look at cheap debt for underground when the ROI is high. If we also prove up 2-5m ounzes you can look 15 year mine and on that basis get cheap debt while you can. i have a feeling if we are not sold within 18 months why not earlier dividend? Condor team are hardly paying themselves a fortune so dividends will raise their income and they are no spring chickens so i think they will be looking to extract cash and a dividend will be most likely. It will also raise the share price to a fair yield and increase underlying value of company. dividends almost always has a big impact on market cap as it attracts pension funds and income chasers. my bets are we are sold within 18 months closer to NPV.