Member Info for Simms45

We have conservative projected EBITDA of £10m in 2022 and £22m in 2023 and Eqtec will make its maiden profit in the current financial year that finishes 31st Dec . We have a vertical trajectory of potential order pipeline (£600m at march 2020). Deeside planning decision expected Q3 and should get financial close with IDEx on Billingham before that. Obviously issue today is making sure we continue to close project and keep the order pipeline buoyant and moving at pace. The tech and business model being executed is of such a high quality i feel the company is almost on its own in its space and our ability to reach so many low hanging opportunities in such a win-win business model for customers is incredible with risk for investors spread across many projects so not reliant on a few big projects. It is probable Primarybid short-term investors nursing losses are selling and moving on to their next moon shot opportunity and we need to just wait this out for the cavalry to arrive in coming months. DP is high on my list of “get **** done” and bar some slippage earlier this year and a possibly late to the party placing that could have been a tad earlier taking advantage of nearer 2-2.5p i still feel a lot is very close to fruition and giving team the benefit of the doubt as we have plenty of indigestion to work through. Just a few projects will keep you busy but we have dozens and over 80 in possible pipeline on every continent of the world. The prospects are phenomonal and transformational and in the absolute sweet spot of being able to convert 50 waste feeds into high quality energy with a turnkey end to end and where Eqtec take equity stakes to maximise profit and capital growth. We have over probably £45 net assets after raising £15m and we are grossly undervalued at just over £100m. Nothing has changed on the ground except investors today can now probably make 5x return over the next 12 months and 10x over 24 months from these lows subsequent to delivery on forecasts. Could be a lot higher also.

If you take 30 working days from the 13th May this is tomorrow assuming no bank holidays. Could be news imminently but great news if that is the case as thats a big derisk, borrowing a phrase often spoken by a certain MC over the last few years. When we get to the bottom of de-risking i hope we start replacing that word with ounzes and minting a few Condor Sovereigns to some long standing shareholders.

Long way to go but i agree AGM are ahead of their time but the last 10 years of innovation has reached a inflection point imho and would argue we are bridging the chasm to wider market adoption. As soon as one competitor edges an advantage all other competitors rush to keep up. I sense this is what is occurring as the coatings market for Graphene is significant. The slow process is partly because AGM are not bringing their own products to market but partnering and of course that makes a lot of sense but is also risky as you rely on third parties for marketing and sales. I can see AGM being bought ultimately by a paint behemoth simply to keep the tech for themselves and we will see. Would be nice to start to see bigger revenue figures brewing and move to bigger volumes.

Producer status should lead to new interest by investors and might also be what unlocks a toll agreement as do you need to be a producer to be able to dig up ore? If Book5 is correct and we have bagged a little more land then MC might be holding back as he might know the rest of the land is coming into play. Therefore on top of Cacao news we could see a slew of great RNSs and the land confirmation would surely be a big derisk in anyones book. if Cacao is good you can start to think comfortably about the 5m district and even GGP only has about 4.4m and they own only about 30% of the spoils due to the newcrest deal and they are valued at £750m market cap. If we can reach towards 5m district then we probably get on a lot more radars commercially and from institutions. I would say a lot of news is incoming on top of all the more trivial annoucements MC alluded to. And i keep asking myself why are we still valued at £60m??

Its a great skim read at 32 pages but supports everything we already know and what Kefi have been saying in updates but as we all know hinges on TK financing, which first real steps could be a few weeks away. The importance of which cannot be understated as the transformation post that event should put a 10x performance in within in 3 years just on standard baseline comparable metrics and substantially more once the real size of Hawiah is understood and we get traction on that project or potentially sell off to a major as i suspect Kefi will be finding massive new resources all around Tulu Kapi. More coverage will be expected once we get that financing and new major investors will move in as the biggest share price rise after the event is the buildup to the mine and as wider investor base and institutions start to eye the cashflow and dividends.

Today has been 90% buys on about £145k of purchases and does feel investors are buying up the slack. There is every reason for the shares to continue forward up to the end of the month and see if we get some positive noises from the central bank. Personally that is a big deal as it lines up the major portion of the lending package and in reality equity is a small portion overall that will fall in. Of course as we know governments and banks might not stick to normal timeframes but i sensed we might get an idea before the end of the month. Could be the turning point we need.

i was trying to pull together 5% shareholders for a EGM last year when it was pretty obvious something was not right as no company doing so well do everything they can to trash the share price but i concluded the duo are academic and grossly incompetent with transparency of releasing material news to the market and believing their 65% control or more by family and friends means they can ignore everyone else and possibly so tight fisted that instead of paying out a dividend potentially, but unproven, embezzle $2m through a shady “advisory” deal. My spider senses were alert pretty early but the staggering fundamentals and market positioning to me outweighed the duo as how can a $10m profit company be valued at barely a PE of 2-3. Even under worst management and assuming they announce dividend you can brush over it but their refusal so far to announce a dividend is most shocking of all. Clearly with such a strong ownership of the company you largely want to have a 3rd party take a 30% stake and reduce their fiefdom or in my view preferably add 2 or more key directors allowing the duo to run arguably what they are good at and operate the plant developments and r&d and have a separate team operating the strategic/marketing/sales side of the business and its international opportunity. I think trying to leverage these limpits off the rock badly will just break the shell for everyonr. From a shareholders perspective we want clarity and cleanup, then we want in advance dividend and a full and thorough forward looking statement with new management onboard. This would send share price on the right trajectory but needs to happen in advance as badly done will not br helpful. The reason i think it is taking so long is because CNEL need more directors, a proper plan on how to come back to HK and that takes time and sadly Richard Bennett is now involved elsewhere so his resource is less than before as it would make sense he took over for a period to sort this out or someone who can go in and knock this all together. The good news is we have relatively vast amounts of cash to fix everything so at the very least CNEL could through a few million at solving everything and a dividend and not even break a sweat. This is key as otherwise i would have lost all hope last year. Lets hope we get some great and very different quarterly update as HK has read the riot act and will be watching closely for transparency and comprehensive material news being shared. I am hopeful this will all end to our advantage.

As Harry mentioned in webinar Abiy is the only multi ethnic party in whole of Ethiopia bringing a lot of ethnic groups together with the rest of the parties largely tribal. Obviously TPLF are most upset as their paramilitary organisation that ran Ethiopia into the ground for 30 years under military rule was dethroned and were not happy. Cant be easy thing to do as its arguably not possible to defuse this kind of organisation apart from disband. Abiy will win election confidently and country is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, albeit from a low base, but when moving to democracy it ruffles some feathers. We should get election result shortly and hopefully that will seal the National Bank signoff and agree all of syndicate. Once bank has signed off the rest should be relatively easy as investors are putting in quite a small amount and Kefi will convert $70m of historic investment, now largely written off, into our 75% equity of the $320m funding package. At the very least company value should rise by the $60m that will be converted into hard equity compared to its current $13m value in the accounts. Then you start from ground zero. Within 6 weeks we should know and while the wait is long, some more than others i suspect it will be worth it.

Would recommend every shareholder to listen to the end. Some excellent straight answers and i think we can start putting down some serious planning for an RNS later this month from central bank signing off the project and a proper full closure by end of July. Plenty of details today and Harry out in Ethiopia in around a week. he stated his expectation based on comparables we should reach around 40% of NPV post financial closure up to reaching NPV by commissioning and 30% premium on production. That would see us up to 20p by production and 26p post that period. That would earn a credible 10X within 2 years based on standard data of comparable companies. This could be small if Hawiah comes into focus as Harry mentioned 2023 for Hawiah development. All highly encouraging and probably one of his most relaxed and confident webinars. GLA

I agree Harry could do with a dose of “underpromise and overdeliver” but also if you tried to be first mover into Ethiopia and dealing with a government and ministries that might be doing this all for the first time it is known governments are not exactly fast moving. all we know is plenty on the ground has and is happening and this is largely just a waiting game to things to align. It does feel painful and Harry does not help himself from quarterly updates and webinars that i have to take my hat off to but its probably a little reason why before each quarter he feels compelled to maybe over promise a little more than he should. Most companies go quiet and then release when done. Everything is moving forward so that is key and unless we get official news to the contrary we must now very close. The bank signoff is imminent and we are clearing the land and resettling locals so that is surely a sign of confidence.

Has anyone noticed all central banks are despetately talking down future inflationary expectations as if this is a one off event? this to me is all about trying to lower inflationary expectations but on the street it is blatantly obvious to me inflation is about to rampage. With UK out of Europe our limitless supply of labour is gone. Just anecdotally hourly rates for all menial jobs are sky rocketing, construction manual labour now £30 an hour, staff notices in windows everywhere. Food prices in shops are visibly up and restaurants up and the list goes on. To me the BOE are desperately trying to reduce inflationary expectations and probably creatively doing what they can but by end of year i think the penny will drop and the magic labour tree of Europe we used for 20 years to keep down wage inflation is over unless they drammatically change tack and interest rates by 2022 is likely to start to ramp up. i think the UK will have higher inflation than anywhere else in Europe. We will see but on one hand surely gold is a good hedge but at same time if global interest rates rise that apparently lowers gold prices but surely 1-2% interest is not really enough against 5%+ inflation? Surely gold prices will be a better store of wealth than held elsewhere. We will see.

This is a great example of the penny dropping. Eqtec taking stakes equity in projects where its margin on the first payment for equipment covers its investment assuming around 25% margin as demonstrated in accounts. It is an almost a free equity investment and derisks Eqtec in the project and cashflow positive immediately on closure and we have many many in the pipeline. When you start stacking up the numbers and look at EBITDA on each project and ongoing management fees you have a very very profitable operation. Throw in a 10-20 year almost guaranteed revenue and imagine Eqtec selling some of these projects for 5% yield to desperate infrastructure funds trying to exit coal power investments etc. and if we sold a few down the road we see considerable value creation. This plant could be worth 15m+ on operation based on 5% yield so that would make our 500k investment into 3m . Scale that 100 or 1000 times and you get an massive company. While we have plenty of financial closures this year they all follow the same model and assuming we have resources and tech stands up we have an unbelievable growth over next 5 years, although we will be long sold by then but greatto see the cash raised is being put to work asap. Its not a big project but starting to prove up the incredible model of an end to end product de-risking for almost all parties.,check out out and call options giving everyone a tidy option, lets say Eqtec prr sells project for 15m to a infrastructure company within 2 years it can use its call option to buy project at fixed price. Lets call it 5m. investors double their money for almost no effort and Eqtec snag the 10m bonus. this is great financial engineering. If it does not go so well i am sure Eqtec have priced project put option at a price that is still good for Eqtec. Happy to stay very long for a very long time.

Yes this is key.
“presented its Project finance syndicate and submitted its Project finance plan to the Ethiopian central bank ("National Bank of Ethiopia”
That means every dollar needed pledged to get banking sign off, which could mean just a few weeks to gey robust RNS as EG are major shareholders of the National Bank so presumably a formality and in reality this pressure by the EG to move this forward will surely help overall. could get key update before the AGM at end of month.

What i see often and i sense it here is we are getting lots of good news trickling in but nothing seismic and we go sideways then all of a sudden move up. Often there is a tipping point and moving to production, some more land bought, studies finalised all together could be a key point. Moving from explorer to producer should help with shareholder recruitment who invest in these companies and some investors will get in just before. Need to bear in mind many gold stocks have probably fallen 30% or more in last 3 months so Condor are in some ways ahead of the market. Also we hope RB has stopped selling and that probably held us back from 55p+ but i suspect that gap will narrow on a change of status. seems every step is moving forward and that is key.

I am not sure if their is a case of Amnesia going around but it has been detailed many times that Kefi do not need to make a placement before financial close. I always thought they were going to do one to close the finance round for the remaining $15m or so and take our ownership to 75% but that appears not the case. Both the CEO and CFO in recent results specified this to my surprise so that rules this out. Secondly the loan has been arranged as per the last RNS so can we please stop forgetting what has been said in the official RNS from the BOD and move on with new material information good and bad and not rehash the same information ad nausea. I think the price is highly attractive at 1.85p and while some might want it to go a little lower to get back in or buy more this is going to be immaterial when this share reaches 5-10p later this year on back of finance and Hawiah BFS which is going to blow this share out of the park. Hawiah is massive and within barely a few months drilling there was so much copper they have moved directly to BFS with well in excess of $2bn. They barely even scratched the surface and this will be coming into focus very soon as it is due in Q3. Sure Harry has some explaining to do on monday to add some more information since the last RNS but there is only so much he can share given the closing of finance,Monday is also a great day for any news prior to Abiy re-election on the 21st and presumably sign off.

we have just had a very successful raise of £15m on the 28th May earmarked to move things forward at pace and normally companies do not jump out with positive RNS just after a raise because it would almost certainly have been known prior to the raise more or less. Therefore my expectation is we need around 1 month of time to elapse before they can put out positive RNS news and escape the eye. if they do not start to RNS some closure on projects there is fear that the long list of projects and the exponential pipeline might not continue if they do not have the resources to progress. There is much needed clarity on financial close progress and on partnerships but my expectation is this is in hand and we should see some of that progress in July. At the moment we are in a period similar to last year when the raise led to a prolonged sideways movement. It does seem to indicate to me that the placings are not going into sticky pockets and do wonder if Primarybid investors are long-term holders as this has happened twice now where we sit at the placing price or below for an extended period and can only assure Primarybid investors are offloading. when the brake is taken off we should ise quickly. Last time we had a pincer manoeuvre with a good wind of positive news and easing of stags we propelled forwards very quickly. We could be 1-2 months from a step change upwards.

This facility has been used many times and the key point below is “HAS” so it is not maybe. Thr CFO and CEO bothbin webinars and in their public statements have said no funding before financial close and short-term lending is in place.

“The Company HAS arranged funding facility options that it is able to drawdown and use when funding is considered necessary during this period

I am sure Harry will further clarify on monday if we do not have an update RNS in the morning. Certainly he will face a number of valid questions regarding his timing and some backlash over his payment but we are all here because we believe funding wil be secured in due course and re-rate the business sustantially overtime. Certainly a multiple of todays price. The downside is protected by Hawiah that is worth far in excess of todays market cap should it be spun out but things are all in place as far as i can see and a matter of patience.

Very encouraging to continue to see strong commentary from the wider market. You can imagine Tom has interviewed Harry several times and while he will not have any more information than is in the market his acumen and standing to recommend to his subscribed customers at this point is very positive. he would hardly do that without very strong likelihood given we are weeks from key information. GLA

With the EG government a 20% shareholder and who are investing in all key infrastructure pre financial close i think that is all you need to know about the true support of the EG for this project. Do they want it to hurry up, of course they do just like Harry and everyone else but everything is landing in place, 150 staff employed for TKGM to manage project and everything ticked off bar the small additional equity from locals or elswhere. Personally i always assumed Kefi would do a raise to close and maximise our holding the CFO and CEO have said and therefore you can assume the deal is done and just a matter of time to release otherwise you would hold that option in the back pocket. Re-rate getting closer.

Harry could do a £15m raise at a drop of hat to secure the $320m funding plan. The reason he does not is he has a plan to minimise dilution to everyones advantage. Kefi is into the final furlong and taking into account all the many many details we have learnt the last month there is every indicator the financing completion will be forthcomimg and that Harry is ensuring shareholders are not being diluted. Kefi and predecessor invested $70m in this project and that is our equity into the finance package so that sweat equity accounts for a great deal. everyone has a chance to make a judgement call and can invest or sell. I believe actions on the ground speak louder than words on the grapevine. If there is something tangible on the downside such as TKGM firing dozens of employees then we would perhaps have concern but everything is ramping up with more hires that only happens when there is a very high degree of confidence they are looking to hit the ground running, in fact operating as if we had the funding in place. downside risk is massively supported by Hawiah that is easily worth more than the tiny £40m market cap Kefi is today. In a years time many people might kick themselves that it was obvious things were going to plan but sometimes you are too close to the woods to see the trees or basing view on historical events.