Member Info for Simms45

Firstly its a bit like believing an article from the news of the world as there is no actual evidence of any kind anything mentioned was real or if said serious in any sense of the word. What has happened over last 12 months (well documented) is miners with licenses are being read the riot act to activate finance or hand the licenses back. The one and only project the EG government are fully invested in is Kefi Gold and Copper. Kefi has firstly categorically denied any informal or official approach for Kefi to speed up its plans but i am sure all investors are as keen as the EG to get this mine moving so i cant imagine any investor is keen keen for this to happen. The final piece of the jigsaw is coming into place and the one thing i am keen to find out about is how many of these licenses are going to be given to Kefi being the first one to make it to the finish line. I think everything is looking very encouraging for company to state everything they did. Earlier. Its actual evidence that i think will lead to a re-rate as its first news we get on how close we are :
“And we are extremely proud that our joint KEFI-Government-owned Project remains scheduled to launch shortly and make a large contribution to regional development around Tulu Kapi and to contribute over US$250 million per annum to export revenues.”

“Only last week we had formal Meetings of TKGM Shareholders, Board of Directors and Project Task Force (comprising senior representatives of TKGM and all involved Government agencies) which agreed the tasks and timetable for development to commence.”

Onwards to the finishing line. I read this as highly encouraging so close to plans. What a time to be invested in Kefi :

“And we are extremely proud that our joint KEFI-Government-owned Project remains scheduled to launch shortly and make a large contribution to regional development around Tulu Kapi and to contribute over US$250 million per annum to export revenues.”

All the right signals and keeping inside of what they can divulge.

“Only last week we had formal Meetings of TKGM Shareholders, Board of Directors and Project Task Force (comprising senior representatives of TKGM and all involved Government agencies) which agreed the tasks and timetable for development to commence.”

Good week ahead i suspect :)

Lets see if there is an afterhours counter purchase but hope to see some more £100k buys to allow those who want to exit to do so and help improve support levels. Always healthy situation to have some good turnover and when Kefi moves to the next level when they succeed in their financing institutions and high net worth individuals will start to do some of the heavy lifting and make step changes in the market cap.

Certainly feels that Mark is doing great job to move things forward, albeit perhaps a little slower than investors would like but dealing in Nicaragua is no doubt a slow burn process. Will be interesting to hear any snippets of updates from later. Would be a great relief and open a lot of further RNS if we can secure that final 5% of the land but gold is firm and i suspect likely to strengthen.

I sense we are at the early stages of upwards momentum as each day passes we are seeing stronger buying and realistically we are not expecting news until the end of the month so no reason to not see this move towards previous ranges of 2.5+ pre news. Personally if Hawiah was our only project we might well have a higher valuation now. I have never been a trader so have always set my market cap target and risk threshold and just waited, sometimes just weeks and others years :) For me Abiy and EG are going to help get this over the line in time for elections. The downside risk is protected to some extent by Hawiah and in the last 2 possible dates we dropped back below 2 before moving up quickly to 2p againso even with another the downside is minimal. Hawiah is continuing to quietly grow in the background and we can expect a PFS in Q3 and more updates in the meantime. Gold at $1838 and rising is a nice backdrop to wet the appetites of investors in Kefi who can see inflation on the horizon so gold is just at the start of its ascendancy. Everything is in favour of this project getting financed so just a waiting game.

i would point out these are almost the words of Harry our CEO who has said in webinars our NPV is 10p for TK and double again for Hawiah so our CEO is thinking 20p over next few years and that is conservative given this was before doubling of copper price, doubling of our resource in Hawiah recently and with a growing gold price. i think subject to TK Kefi is going to be in the absolute sweetspot with investors with multiple developments moving forwards and in particular copper that looks to be in huge demand.

Slowly building is what i sense. For the first time in a long time we look to be moving to MM quotes with PEEL at 2.17 so the supply of stock might become more strained but would be nice to move to a new trading range of 2.3-2.5p
2.165 192,053 08:45
2.17 200,000 PEEL 07:51
2.2 130,000 07:50
2.22 200,000 SING 07:50
2.22 118,244 08:19
2.245 200,000 SCAP 07:50

The best part i can take is CNE will be forced to provide quarterly updates and inform shareholders of all material information for the company's shareholders. Both of these things we have all been asking for the last 12 months so again its great that the Hkex have forced them to open up. Clearly the results points to a lot of great things going on and why they have been reluctant to share is a mystery.

"as well as announce quarterly updates on its development pursuant to Rule 13.24A of the Listing Rules."

"inform the market of all material information for the Company’s shareholders and investors to appraise the Company’s position."

I am sure it is a pretty standard letter from Hkex but in some ways glad that the board have been put in this position as the treatment towards PIs was so poor and this suspension is the direct result of their lack of transparency that led to suspicion that should have been covered a long time ago in a management statement or update. I hope the investigation has embarrassed the BOD and they change their approach.
The final part of the announcement from the Chairman hopefully gives small consolation they are doing everything as quickly as possible to get their listing from suspension as they effectively spent $5m on getting listed in the first place. How long that might be is another matter.

"The Company will make its best efforts to fulfill the conditions as set out in the Resumption Guidance, fully comply with the Listing Rules to the Stock Exchange’s satisfaction and will seek to resume trading in its shares as soon as possible"

Inflation could be ramping up by the end of this year in the UK. Commodities are rocketing, UK government printed £400bn to get through Covid, many people saved a fortune working from home and have plenty to spend, Brexit has led to price rises from continent and this is all starting to filter through. Throw in some global sabre rattling and you can see that inflation could well be at the very start of a fast rise later this week that should have a strong impact on Gold. When the crypto markets takes a serious beating and people consider if the emperor has any clothes on then gold is likely to looked at again. Gold seems very much unloved but as a contrarian that is normally a good sign of the future.

Pressure is slowly building but l am equally surprised that the market has not woken up to the billions of copper we have in Hawiah that could well become one of the largest copper resources in the world as the PFS is already started and we barely even scratched the resource. However it makes complete sense to get the PFS completed as soon as we had enough copper to make the development feasible and this the grades we have it is phenomenal. we can then work with Artan to get the licenses and financing and then in the background carry on drilling the resource to increase its value towards $5bn+ in the ground. As to TK we know where we need to be at the end of this month so lets hope we start to get some RNS confirming some real traction. Certainly feels we are standing on firmer ground this time around with confirmed term sheets from a big investor. The cornerstone investor is normally the key to unlocking these developments as smaller investors will follow them into the project as they are putting the biggest slice. For me the bank finance is a done deal as the Ethiopian government are the main shareholder of the bank in question and Kefi so that feels pretty certain and with elections on June 5th Abiy is not going to let this one slip beyond that as it will be a key piece to prove his prowess to rebuild his country after the fall out of the pandemic and Tigray.

Ethanol is now at the highest price in 7 years and almost doubled in less than 4 months. Clearly as long as input prices have not doubled you can expect projects that were not able to get financing to be viables and more importantly you would expect a lot more projects to start to come out of the woodwork. I do not think CNE directly benefits financially from a rising Ethanol price as i do not think they have any stakes in projects or trade in Ethanol but clearly if their customers are making increased profits they will be looking to upgrade, pay their bills on time and invest in expanding plants and latest technology. All of that should have a big impact on the industry just as a doubling of oil prices would have on the oil industry as you would expect the price rise to outstrip the input cost rises. We can hope that coming out of suspension with hopefully a positive outcome, perhaps some board improvements and a reset on the company communication then there is every chance we can be at a £100m company and not a £20m valuation. There is a clearly a great opportunity as well as risk coming out of suspension as to what path they will take. It all hangs in the balance of whether CNE want to become a major growth success story and engage to unlock value for stake holders. Certainly everything since suspension in the wider market and the results themselves have been hugely positive so that is a blessing.

Very interesting article from the Ethiopian Embassy about meeting their meeting with Harry. These are key people used as intermediaries between government and corporations so useful to know the government are taking this seriously and hopefully doing everything they can get behind the scenes to create the biggest export project in the country. Price is nicely ticking up today so hopefully we can gradually climb over the coming weeks but would be huge to get an early RNS giving something tangible progress on the funding side as there is a quite a bit to get done.

The Ethiopia government had 2 licenses and got 2 bids so while government would have liked a bidding war i suspect corporations carved it up between themselves. ultimately ethiopia got two of the largest operators in Africa and corporates got in a reasonable price meaning they can invest more on the actual service than just the licenses. Its a positive sign imo and the confidence in the country to open up to external investment. the TK project is progressing, the government want their key news this month for re-election and everything has been managed for that. There is probably no coincidence that previous elections and project was originally sometime ago and when elections got put back 6 months coincidentally so did Kefi. All things are looking very promising and that first RNS will set the train in motion.

my strategy is that as long as i have a strong understanding of all the factors that i feel are important to the success of a business then the falls are often a blessing to buy more shares as i get more cash. It is exactly the time like we have at moment where we have had no financial closes in a long period that some short term traders move and the froth leaves the bulletin boards. I am very confident we will see 10p in the not too distant future just on the vertical growth in orders and now it is execution of the financing that is key. From the first moment i invested i always said the pinch point will be resources and management to deliver. That is still the case but i sense financial closure on key projects is edging closer. As the most famous investing phrase goes “buy while others are fearful” and it has always served me well only when i have a strong conviction on the underlying business. If your in for 18 months you will not be disappointed imho.

it is interesting as with most cleantech related companies there has been a lot of false dawns in the sector going back 10 years. I think Windar going back to 2016 had pretty excitable forecasts but every year it looks there has been setbacks and the financial squeeze that ensues from combining bullish revenue forecasts that fall away and increasing cost base. The edison report in 2018 is probably perhaps more valid today than in 2018. https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Windar-Photonics-Harnessing-the-wind-more-effectively.pdf I like companies who have persevered and i can see that their cost cutting and revised model might have an impact and change their fortunes but the revenues are still very small and as the unit cost reduces they will need to sell more units for the same revenue, although you hope the demand increases by more. Plenty of positives on where they are but the £400k placing seems quite a small amount as they will be loss making for sometime to come so its not unexpected for a further placing this year. market cap is 10x the revenue and the question is how fast can the trajectory of sales really grow as they have struggled more than once with supply chain issues.

I agree. Equivalent price on Lse of 1.03 canadian dollars would be 63p which would be nice to see. However given TSX has barely any liquidity not sure we can read too much into it.

My slight hope is that with the new confirmation of grades from Mestiza very tight if a toll deal was agreed with Calibre and they were going to mix ore from different mines then we can be sure of the mill grade based on the tonnage. i am not too familiar but otherwise i guess they would have to process the gold for Mestiza and then switch back to another mine to be precise so you only got the true amount. Anyway it is great to see the very high grades and new veins found that confirms 100% what MC has been saying and we can be very quick to get that out when the time comes. I hope now Cacao will raise the dial to get us closer to the 5m ounze district and we should start to see whether that might be possible quite soon. For me Cacao results, assuming they are good and no reason not to expect from early indications, then this will have a decent impact on the share price while other price moving news comes into focus. Ultimately it is all coming together, mine on the way, roads being sorted and very happy to ride all the way to production where ultimately the real prize will be. It would be nice to get some low ball offers thrown into the mix just to move the price up but i am sure they have had plenty of interest but the price can only be a minimum of £1.50+ and i suspect with current price a 1/3 of that it will not happen. When we get to £1 maybe cheeky offers might start popping in but acquirers i am sure are well aware of where the price needs to be but today how can any CEO recommend a 300% premium to their shareholders as they would not get it past. Maybe a private buyer could do it. if we get to £1 then a 50% premium is probably doable but it is still small change compared to the massive expected income and the acquirer could recover all their costs from just 2 years production so while MC and Jim will need to properly report and consider it i suspect it would not happen. However Condor would get to £1.50 by that time and then i suspect a new offer might come in from another party at £2 and so on.

Once we start to see some of the expected RNSs in May to give investors that concrete evidence Kefi will go off like a rocket. it was interesting to look at other companies from the presentation that have come to Ethiopia, some listed on Canadian market that have nothing but some licenses and some cash in the bank but valued similar to Kefi and they are in the middle of the Tigray region :) and before valued 4x Kefi. Kefi has sunk $60m and 10 years, including previous owner, to get to this pivotal point and mines average is 12 years from exploration to production so we are not far out. There was plenty in the webinar that shows Harry is not just putting his feet up by the pool and winging it as some might construe. The NPV is at 8% and many similar projects are at 6% so we are being conservative about our NPV. Throw in Hawiah, that is still based on last years 2 month drilling programme, and once we get that updated shortly it will probably match the NPV of the Tulu Kapi project. This was the last point he was trying to make. I think if the RNS procession start landing in May we will start to see serious traction. If they dont and there is delay we now get the fallback position that Hawiah will probably announce its PFS and resource update that will equal TK. I think the upside greatly outweighs the downside. the worst scenario is we mothball TK and focus on Hawiah that is almost a certainty. That will not happen but Hawiah for some is far more exciting project and still far more valuable than our current market cap. Looking forward to 5th June to get elections away as i hope we will be well north of current price. The benefit of this time lapse is that existing investors can continue to top-up as we have flatlined now for 6 months at 2p and in a months time could be kicking ourselves for not taking some more at these levels.

I agree. 6% up in a day and the chart is almost vertical. Surely must have a huge impact on projects possibly on ice waiting for green light and these sort of Ethanol prices and mandating globally must combine to trigger orders to go into production and new orders to come in. Would greatly like to hear CNE update on the economics of Ethanol production as surely a rising commodity price is normally key to financing plants and investor interest. Ethanol is up 70% in a year. Everything on the ground is a perfect storm for CNE but lets see how BOD handle the global opportunity at their doorstep. Critical year really and they have plenty to prove.