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There is no way that all of the 45m non Assore placing shares from April will be sold at a 10% profit after yesterday's news. A lot of profit taking has taken place from those buying at 16-17p and yes some placing churn has stopped any rise in it's tracks, but this should quickly subside. The main reason larger holders sell into news like yesterday is that they are liquidity events - before yesterday if you want to shift 2m shares it would have been impossible on 99% of trading days without tanking the price...

Most of the placees from April would have been delighted to own shares at the same price as Piedmont, if not then I don't know why they were giving their money to the company in the first place.

Have been watching this with interest ever since it rocketed in late Dec / early Jan to a high of £2.45, hard luck if you bought at those levels...

Even after the recent fall I don't feel comfortable investing. Why?

2018 turnover was $26m
2019 turnover was $28m
2020 turnover was $50m

2021 turnover is forecast to be $59m, however I'm concerned by how much of the 2020 uplift was due to Viroblock sales driven by the pandemic... if these sales don't repeat then they will miss their 2021 and future targets and the share price will get hammered.

As per the prospectus, Viroblock delivered $10.5m revenues in HY2020. HY2020 revenues were $30.1m and we can thus say that H2 had a significant revenue slowdown to $20.2m, likely driven by lower Viroblock sales (although I can't see confirmation of this in the annual accounts).

What will H121 deliver? Time will tell. But if they warn on full year revenues, I think this will fall to sub £1 pretty darn quick.

HEIQ had profit before tax of $1m in 2019 and grew just ~8% YoY. If it had listed on the market pre pandemic I can't see how they could have commanded a market cap of more than £75m? (3 x revenues or so). I think they timed their listing to perfection & at a current valuation of £193m they are top heavy.

Will await the half year results with interest.

Fantastic interview, Vincent got quite emotional towards the end when talking about it being a 'career making deal' for him personally, great to see.

Just 12km drilled of a 670km license area... could this turn into the next Solgold or GGP? £1 would equate to a market cap of £570m, I think this is feasible in the medium term given we're now fully funded, which makes it possible to accurately calculate real world NPV's as we won't have any more significant dilution. This should attract some institutional / HNW money and drive up the share price.

Drill results, upgraded resource estimate, upgraded scoping study, upgraded NPV. Then rinse and repeat as we explore more of the license. Happy days.

The IRR of 125% is incredible, for comparison, Zinnwald have a project that has a 27% IRR and an NPV of €435m over a 30 year mine life, with a construction cost of €159m. What will our NPV be if we can extend the mine life to 30 years?! Well north of $1b...

Yet Zinnwald currently have a market cap of half ours with no funding in place, and just €4.8m cash.

https://www.zinnwaldlithium.com/projects/zinnwald-lithium-project/

Yes they have some excellent content on IRR for new investors;

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/947094/ironridge-resources--increase-scale-of-ongoing-drill-programme-at-the-ewoyaa-lithium-project-947094.html

Interesting fact from this one; the current mineral resource estimate of 14.5m tonnes comes from around 26,000m of drilling over several years & phases, the new & ongoing program of 16,600m is 63% of this size...

Given how well it's going you'd have to wonder whether a mine life extension of significantly more than the current target of 2 years is possible? Each year added = an additional $40m of NPV, which is particularly relevant now that IRR have full funding. Could they feasibly add 4 or 5 years on?

This more recent video also summarises everything really well;

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/953160/ironridge-resources--shareholders-to-benefit-from-any-uplift-in-value--following-golden-spinout-953160.html

And finally the most recent CEO interview from April is also very good indeed;

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/947227/ironridge-resources--says--if-we-continue-to-hit-impressive-results-we-ll-just-keep-on-expanding--947227.html

You can really see why Piedmont have backed them! 14km drilled out of 650km+, this could end up being a huge resource if the grades keep coming...

Agree @Phoebus, this kind of affirmation by a major usually results in a re-rate to well above previous levels. The fact Piedmont have taken a 9.5% equity stake & are now the third largest shareholder is an even bigger statement... Intrigued to see where we close, I suspect 25-27p, but depends how many bid chasers turn up!

Bought in this morning & doubled up at 20.8 after doing some DD. I was impressed with everything I read.

For me it's the Piedmont - Tesla connection that makes this particularly significant news. It's hard to imagine that Piedmont would risk their company making relationship with Tesla by executing a material investment without Tesla's approval... They could have chosen a multitude of projects to invest in, the fact they have chosen IRR is a huge endorsement of the resource potential, sustainability credentials, management team & jurisdiction.

Sell on news nutters / profit takers are now thinning, so I suspect we'll see a rapid jump at some point.

Why would you RNS a PCR test 18 months into a pandemic and then say it won't be CE market until Sep / Oct?! Comical. This company shouldn't be worth £32m considering it had revenues of £0.4m last year & only £2.8m cash at the end of March. It has been a diabolical performance in terms of delivery, however Budd would point to the fact they've paid off their debts & enhanced their visibility... a traders dream, a nightmare for anyone who bought and held at >£1

It's one of the best examples of private investor - company relations that I've seen, and paints them all in a very positive light. A sustained period of positive newsflow starting with the closing of the second fund (which Patrick states they are now in a position to do) should re-rate LIT considerably.

Whilst it's pushing it to say we could follow the same path as Burford did when going from £1 to £20 over 3 years, it surely can't be ruled out. From mid 2018 to mid 2019 BUR was valued at between £3-4b, if LIT manages to return a MOIC of 2 - 2.5x on it's CURRENT AUM over the next 3 years then these assets will have a book value of around £500m (as per FF first video, 21mins, upside analysis, based on company presentations).

Add in the deployment of the imminent second fund for a value of ~$300m and you can see how book value / AUM could soar towards £1b in the next 3-5 years.

If we are re-rated to be valued at 2 x book, then a £1.5-2b valuation would result; £12-17 per share. With positive sentiment + the fact the market is forward looking, £20 would be well within reach.

With that RNS NCYT are officially ahead of AVCT in the race for a home use LFT, as they have completed a 303 person study and demonstrated excellent S&S. intrigued to see how fast they can get it CE marked…

AVCT have talked about a self /home test for over 6 months but not delivered yet, their CEO has said it’s due to more stringent approval requirements, such as a lay user study & third party technical validation. Will they ever complete this?

Ps. Covidopportunist you need to learn to read - it specifically says ‘self test LFT’

RE. Ampion, it's an interesting pilot study with positive results, however in my opinion the P1 data is nowhere near comparable to SNG for one very simple reason; there was no blinding.

An RN working at a clinical study site said, “The staff is seeing a big difference in the Ampion-treated patients. We believe Ampion kept one patient off a ventilator – and another discharged this past weekend, no one expected him to live. So now we have both respiratory therapy and nursing stating how they are seeing a big difference in your drug.”

Their P2 is to be double blinded and that will provide comparable data vs SNG, the link to it is here; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04868890?term=Ampion&draw=2&rank=2

200 participants, if that's enough for an EUA then we'll be in a similar position at the end of ACTIV-2 P2 (although for home use rather than hospitalised patients).

It's actually quite ridiculous that they applied for an EUA after a 40 person unblinded P1 trial, clearly you have to try and push but come on...

What is boom about the fact India have pricing controls that favour low priced tests?

It feels on the verge of a major move up - technically and fundamentally things are finally looking really positive indeed here. A re-rate to £2 would be well overdue when you consider how much the landscape has changed since the placing last October. Variants weren't even a thing back then...

Full disclosure that I sold my holding this afternoon for the same fundamental reasons as Bluelight. I feel that this company has a great future however it is currently being played by a combination of the French exchange & DHSC. As soon as either a delisting from Euronext happens or the DHSC dispute is settled in full, I'll be back in a heartbeat. In the meantime, good luck all holders & I'll hopefully be back posting on here in the very near future.

Soder, I’ll keep saying this until it sinks in. AIM DOES NOT DRIVE THE SHARE PRICE

It'll take a few days to settle down, and frankly who knows what the French will decide a UK based diagnostics company should be valued at? My top 3 future share price drivers are;

- Delisting from Euronext
- Delisting from Euronext
- And delisting from Euronext

Nothing else will make a material difference I don't think, maybe DHSC settlement but it'll still probably get sold off! It's all they know...

Brilliant outcome re. DHSC & strategic outlook!

Just in case anyone missed this important info tucked away in segmental reporting;

"91% of loans and receivables are with one counterparty, with whom there is a contract dispute. Management considers it to be more likely than not that the year end balances are recoverable. £47,926,000 of the year end receivables balance of £71,883,000 with the counterparty in question has been received in 2021."66

IKA was 40p this time last year, it got caught up in the euphoria that accompanied Quantumscape hitting an insane $60b market cap. Why would you pay £1.40 today? I have a horrible feeling that many PI’s are going to learn what AIM is really like over the next 6 months, if you buy in a downtrend simply because the price appears cheap then you’ll get taken to the cleaners. That’s certainly what it was like in 2018 & 19 before the magical spell from Feb 20-21 arrived.

It's the French market that dropped the price today, and it also wasn't a 10% fall. The bid price at close on Friday was 3.82 and today it's closed at 3.61, which is 5.4%. It's the usual fun and games with uncrossing trades that made it look worse than it is, no doubt to try and dissuade new buyers from coming in (ooh it's down 10%, must be bad news on the way). This is the same level it held for much of Friday before a mad last hour of FOMO.

Results will depict a transformational 2020, it'll be great to get clarity on the net asset position at year end and the level of impairments they've provided for re. DHSC. A lot of the fog will lift tomorrow, how much is up to GM.

Of course there is risk, however it's worth remembering that we went into the half year results in September at a higher share price and that was before the DHSC contract even existed. 14 hours and we'll know where we stand.

All I want to see tomorrow is the following;

-Quantification of the DHSC dispute; revenue was stated as £277m in Jan, so anything about £250m will be a major positive. We know a lot of cash has been received (£48m since year end) which adds to the intrigue. How would the market react if it isn't impaired at all?

- Confirmation of the current cash balance

- A positive outlook statement, ideally with comments around 'increasing confidence' for the long term prospects of the Covid-19 testing market.

Bonuses would be;

- Full DHSC resolution
- Confirmation of imminent release of the long term strategy
- Any hint of delisting from the French exchange

When you re-read the 2019 results released in May 2020, you realise how much information was provided. Tomorrow should provide an awful lot of reassurance to the market & highlight our obscene market cap. It's been a long time coming!

AS is a world class salesman, you simply have to be in order to survive on AIM for 15 years. However, you can only spin a yarn for so long.

There are dozens of companies selling antigen tests in Europe, many have S&S similar to AVCT. How are they going to take significant market share from the current providers? What competitive advantage does the test have? https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/default/files/preparedness_response/docs/covid-19_rat_common-list_en.pdf

This time last year was the opportunity to get in early and build relationships. If I was contacted by an Avacta sales rep my first response would be 'what have you been doing for 15 months?' Followed up by, 'why would I switch from my current supplier?' I certainly wouldn't be paying a premium price for a late entrant that offers nothing new.

I suspect there will be a very unsubtle switch to ramping AVA6000 now in the hope that the market forgets about antigen testing revenue. Let's see what happens.