Member Info for ShearClass

I have just noticed something that may give us a clue as to who is selling;

On the PDL website Vontobel are listed as a 16.81% holder which equals 1,632,266,006 shares. However, in their TR1 on 15th March they owned 1,730,825,578. So they appear to have sold just over 98m shares, annoyingly it doesn't say when the shareholder listing was last updated.

The other 4 bondholders are unchanged.

2.4b volume since 15th March and it's ticking on nicely today at 15m, so you'd like to think if Vontobel are the seller they will have got through another chunk of their shares.

It'll take time, however when the breakout occurs it will be violent!

Definitely good to have a proper II take a near 1% stake. I noticed some odd activity on the L2 order book post the August presentation / half year results - there were a couple of times when 5 x 19489 trades were lined up on the buy side. I'd never seen such organisation before so knew something was afoot.

They first appeared as soon as the presentation had concluded and for the first time ever seemed to caused the UK market to dominate France. What was probably happening was they were buying on both exchanges - mopping up French selling whilst also buying on LSE. They last appeared just before the price fell back below £4 on 26th Aug, suggesting that once they'd stopped buying, the standard downward pressure from France took effect again...

The pricing looks very aggressive / arrogant to me, the Liberum broker note compares it to a Bloomberg platform - the key difference there is that Bloomberg have the reputation to pull it off. I'll wait to see what the financials do...

As per sharepad he previously owned 50.6m shares, so has sold 10.6m. I’ve no idea why they are allowed to RNS his holdings without clarifying if he has bought sold….

@radius, if you let the value of your equity fall as low as TPG did at 3.9p then yes you run the very real risk of being bought out against your will. That is why most companies attempt to keep their share price up or alternatively the directors / owners / concert party hold a controlling % of the company to avoid a hostile takeover.

Why can't the board do anything? Well the existing members will know that SAG hold 27%+ and will bid for them again in 6 months and this time there won't be much they can do to stop them. What is the point in fighting a losing battle?

The way TPG have managed the business over the last 10 years + has been an attack on shareholder value, this is capitalism at it's best. The fittest preying on the weak to improve overall returns. If you want to run a business that is subservient to the directors then don't list it on the stockmarket!

@Canonguy, this is what the SAG withdrawal RNS said on 3rd September;

“For the purposes of Rule 2.8 of the Code, Science Group, and any person(s) acting in concert with it, reserve the right to make or participate in an offer or possible offer for TP Group (and to take any other action which would otherwise be restricted under Rule 2.8 of the Code) within 6 months after the date of this announcement:
- with the agreement of the TP Group Board;

- following the announcement of a firm intention to make an offer for TP Group by or on behalf of a third party;
- following the announcement by TP Group of a proposal for a "whitewash" (as referred to in Note 1 of the Notes on Dispensations from Rule 9 of the Code) or for a reverse takeover (as defined in the Code); or
- where the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers has determined that there has been a material change of circumstances.”

And director GM resolutions;

“Removal of Mr Andrew McCree as a director;
· Removal of Mr Jeremy Warner-Allen as a director;
· Appointment of Mr Martyn Ratcliffe as a director; and
· Appointment of Mr Peter Bertram as a director”

If those director changes are made & the TPG board then accept the offer (I don’t see what choice they would have?) it appears the 6 month rule would be bypassed?

Cannacord participated in the SAG placing yesterday, increasing their holding by 1.2m shares which is equal to £5.4m. They now own 15%+ of SAG. Cannacord also own 11.7% of TPG, which equals 91.7m shares.

Which side do you think they'll be voting on?

Indeed, there are a lot of games being played here. There is an AT buyer of 50k chunks + an AT seller of random amounts. Then you get big 'O' sells of 250k / 500k chunks as we saw yesterday. Looking forward to the results + conference call next week.

@hasiba, the same cash would have bought you 300k shares on Friday morning ;) There is a reason the Canadian's are profit taking, however it still doesn't make sense that they are driving the price.

This is a very weird share....

UK volume Friday 60m, yesterday 41m, today 12m
Canadian volume Friday 9m, today 5m

Yet Canada leads the price action?

Even weirder is the fact that yesterday / this morning getting a quote for 50k shares was tricky... yet right now you can easily buy 500k at 11.1p... I've never seen such odd mechanics before.

Nope, it’s in Canadian dollars. Closed at 0.165 - 0.17 = 9.48 - 9.77p in GBP. Total TSX volume of 9.1m shares, equivalent to ~ £900k

The market makers aligned the UK with the TSX as soon as it opened, it's no coincidence that the UK peak at 11.50 was at 2.29pm and from that point the price was controlled slowly downwards. What was interesting was that into close you could buy 500k shares for 10.185, there hadn't been that kind of size available all day. Suggests to me that there is a net sell position on the TSX and they were using it to offset the UK demand. Where this opens on Monday depends on where the TSX closes today, however where it goes on Monday is anyone's guess, especially with it being a Canadian bank hol. Well done to all that profited today, it's been too long since the last big LSE / AIM 130% riser!

Really good posts Splendor, nice to have some informed discussion on here. I agree with almost all of what you say, there is certainly negative market bias against PDL at present due to the unsavoury situation that unfolded from 2017-2020 which cost previous shareholders 99% of their investment. None of the financial media will be talking about PDL in a positive light at present (in fact it's complete silence), and this keeps it under the radar of most potential buyers. The simple fact is the vast majority of market participants buy based on price action, as doing your own research to get ahead of the crowd takes time & a bit of initiative.

From a net debt perspective, PDL is in it's best position since 2015, however that was right at the start of a huge CAPEX cycle in which they spent an average of $300m per annum for three years. 2021 is CAPEX is forecast at $78-92m, and with the diamond market in the best shape for years, this should mean PDL throws off huge free cash flows. I agree that a 1p dividend should be feasible in the mid term once debt it paid down, however even at 0.5p the yield would be 33% on current share prices...

Ps. I've also noticed the anomalous quotes, although I've never got quoted 3p! Current 1.81 to buy 1m & 1.84 for 2m, way above the advertised prices.

Rare to see a 37.5p broker target on a 5p share... even more interesting that it's done it before back in 2017 and there has been minimal dilution since

1.85 to buy 1m shares... as I posted yesterday it appears that the seller has gone... things could rapidly change if some volume comes in ahead of results.

Whisper it quietly, but it appears that our seller has now gone from the L2 order book. There was 1.3m at 1.7 and it was taken out around 15 mins ago, nothing has replaced it as yet. Let's see if that remains the case... If so, there is very little between here and 2p.

Wow, £320k of revenue, meaning H2 was £270k vs £54k in H1

In the Jan interims they said;

“However, post Period end we have enjoyed significant traction”

Is £270k sales in 6 months significant traction?! £45k a month for a company with an £83m market cap is pittance, add in the fact cost of sales was higher than revenue and you have a sh*t show.

Looks like you'll be paying 25p+, Piedmont committing further to their equity stake is great news :)

Nobody knows why they do what they do - to me this looks far better value than any other 2021 £1b+ IPO, i.e. Darktrace, Wise, Auction Technology or Deliveroo, yet it's the only one with a notifiable short position against it...

My alternative synopsis is this;

Carmignac got greedy and tried to screw the price post IPO, aiming for Deliveroo style gains (IPO'd at 390p, bottomed out at 230p). They were caught out as other II's that had been omitted from the IPO roadshow (such as Amati) did their research and aggressively took positions. Dr Paul Jourdan of Amati stated they had bought a large position on a recent Vox interview. The trading update on 14th June caught them out and kicked off a 6 week re-rate that took the shares to £4.70 and left Carmignac well under water. They haven't added to their position since.

We then have another hedgie, Naya Capital, that have played it a different way. They first declared a notifiable position on 16th July at 0.61% and have increased this to 0.92% up to last Thursday. Their selling pressure was overwhelmed until early August when trading volumes dropped off, they then managed to force the price down by selling ~1.2m shares into low volume. Did they open their short once Carmingnac had finished selling? We'll never know thanks to the opacity of LSE.

I suspect that Naya owed Carmingnac a favour and have stepped in to help them out. At 340p we have a situation where Naya & Carmingnac are likely sitting at a small profit, however they have a problem in the fact that the interim results will land in September and very likely show huge + profitable growth. I'm also 99% sure AWE will be added to the FTSE 250 in the September quarterly review which will add further buying pressure.

What do they do? If the trading update is as strong as I suspect then adding further will be folly... but buying back 14m shares will send a rocket up the share price given 60 day average volume is 650k shares...

It feels like a tinderbox with a dry thunderstorm brewing