Member Info for ShearClass

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Reckons its crashing to the 1/2's and then buys back an hour later... u ok hun?

Good presentation, however you can tell GM is now getting ****ed off with the questions... very curt in the last couple.

How does a large spread discourage shorters? I'd argue that it discourages buyers far more, thereby helping the shorts. The spread is an artefact of how illiquid the shares are, with a free float that is just beyond 25%.

Good RNS, minus the fact we don't have any transparency on either cash, gross margins or EBITDA. All quite important in a half year trading update no? I also can't believe there are still posters on here that think the UK L2 is of any relevance to NCYT, it's 100000% driven by ALNOV & Euronext, when that moves, so does the UK.

Earnings were forecast to be £16m, at 62% below this figure you are looking at just £6m... this is surely heading back to £5 - 7ish a share, slightly above pre pandemic levels but nowhere near where it has traded. I saw a couple of twitter posts last week that were claiming this was a buy as there was a bowl forming on the chart, I thought at the time it was complete nonsense as for a bowl to sustain you need sustained positive sentiment, clearly that isn't the case here at present.

September will see proof of the financial progress in black and white, this will inevitably start to attract more attention as the material improvement in financial position becomes apparent to the market. October will then see the Q1 trading update, this should also be a cracker with the $40m type II blue already sold & a further $15m+ likely to arrive from the recent type II white diamond. It's feasible that net debt could be below $200m. It's just going to take time, but the risk / reward profile appears compelling from the current level.

@Shaun, it's updated now - Naya Capital increased their short position by 0.12% on August 10th, equivalent to around 800k shares. I suspect they began selling shares on the afternoon of the 9th before upping the ante yesterday. It makes sense that this would smash the share price, as daily average volume for the 20 days leading up to the 10th was 345k shares. Naya selling 800k + profit taking + stop losses + panicking PI's = a sharp fall.

It's going to be fun and games when Naya & Carmignac have to buy the 13.4m short back...

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BNDRMJ14/

It's ironic that they've sold their holdings in IES & ATM, but retain a stake in the one project that is anti ESG (Lemur). Selling because Vanchem is a sinkhole for cash IMO, no other logical explanation given the current tin market dynamics & progress made by ATM.

It just needs volume, of which there is a little bit more so far today. If £10m of buys came in then it would shift rapidly IMO. I find it hard to believe that this isn't tempting to a HNW individual looking to double their money... A matter of time until it moves either way, providing current management continue executing the turnaround plan.

Everyone buying today is simply gambling, you have no idea what this is worth as there are ZERO proven resources on which to base a valuation. What is evident is that these guys have either messed up the drill or that the geology of the drill site is very unfriendly. They lost the drill pipe, can't do the wireline log & are now abandoning a retest of the main target... this will plunge once traders sell later this afternoon, below 5p and it may be worth a shot.

Only logical explanation is that the 2 x hedgies that shorted down to £3 post IPO have decided to double down rather than admit defeat. A questionable strategy and one that I suspect will cost them both a lot of money. Interims in September should show growing profitability and a burgeoning pipeline...

Nice work dactions, I did something very similar but managed to get a few at 4.5 and the rest 4.7. It never hurts to take a quick profit! My main rationale for doing so is that I don't trust the board to play hardball - I can see them accepting 5p a share and that being that.

ASX lithium plays have been going through the roof, most are up well over 100% YTD and don't have anything like the fundamentals that IRR do. One that is comparable is Sayona Mining, who as many here will know have also signed a deal with Piedmont.

On Jan 11th Piedmont acquired a 9.9% stake in Sayona for $3.1m, valuing the companies equity at $31m. They also agreed to invest a further $5m for a 25% project stake. Amazingly, despite very little material newsflow since, Sayona is now valued at $450m.

Key differences vs IRR include;

Offtake start date; SYA : Jul 23 to Jul 24 vs IRR which is Jul 25 to Jul 26

Pricing : SYA : min SPOD price $500, max $900, this is a huge handicap given current prices are already hitting $1200 in recent auctions... vs IRR which is market pricing.

SYA's DFS stage project (Authier) has an IRR of just 33% and a pre tax NPV of C$216, vs 125% & USD539m for IRR

Sure, Authier is based in Quebec, which is a lower risk justification that Ghana and their offtake is scheduled to begin 2 years earlier that IRR's, however every other aspect of their agreement & project economics are vastly inferior.

Today's ASX volume for SYA was equivalent to £4.8m with 1438 trades... meanwhile, IRR has attracted a grand total of 11 trades for £32k and most appear to be sells from impatient owners.

For me, IRR has to be one of the best 2 -5 year holds on the LSE. Huge upside potential once it gets discovered by international investors, likely later this year once share price momentum picks up and the spin off is finalised.

1.25m taken out and then reloaded again for another 3m at 1.77, as per yesterday lunchtime! We have an iceburg sell, my bet would be invesco. It'll take some time but will clear if we get sustained volume. They sold loads of LSE shares at way below their fair value in the Woodford years, so makes sense they would do the same here.

Not posted here for some time, however I was relatively surprised to read of GM’s imminent departure earlier this week. IMO it’s not the greatest news considering the ongoing DHSC dispute.

The investor meet company meeting will be intriguing, but until the £129m contingent liability is resolved I can’t see NCYT going anywhere.

There has been a big sell order on L2 since 30/07 at 1.77p. Yesterday morning there were 7.6m shares on offer, now it's down to 3.6m, once this is taken out then there isn't much on the book until 2p.

As the excellent Seeking Alpha article says, the current EV makes little sense, 5p would have the EV back to the same levels as early 2020 but clearly things are much healthier than back then from a debt perspective, so this would just be the first target.

Buy, hold and wait IMO

Disagree on the eye watering valuation, what are you benchmarking it against? There are several other recent UK IPO’s with slower growth rates, lower gross margins & similar profitability or even loss;

Wise : £9.5b market cap, £41m 2020 pre tax profit
Roo : £5.5b market cap, loss making
Dark : £5.3b market cap, loss making
ATG : £1.6b market cap, loss making

Even MOON are a £1.2b cap with profit of just £32m last year

So AWE at £2.8b with 2021 forecast profit of $42.5m rising to $113m by 2023 doesn’t seem at all expensive to me. Trading on a 2 year forward PE of about 30

Mrcarats, why would invesco want to directly own a diamond mine? They only own 8% of PDL shares due to the debt deal, if they had wanted to gain control of PDL why didn't they play hard ball last year and refuse to restructure the loan notes? It's mindless speculation. The more relevant issue is whether one of the big investors will sell down their holding, Invesco would be my concern & with 800m shares it'll take a while to clear. Vontobel & the Monarch Master Fund are complete unknowns.

Amazing how quiet this board remains, the shorts must be starting to get concerned - the rise is beginning to resemble the re-rate that Darktrace went through a couple of weeks back. The market cap of AWE remains £2b less than Dark, despite it being profitable and growing at a much faster rate... interesting to see what happens over the next 6 months.