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Market makers remain completely disinterested - wins have dropped their bid to 1.40 and shore capital are the best at 1.57… the rest are sitting at 1p or below. Bizarre, and there won’t be a rerate until that situation changes.

Excellent news on another big find - the last 299 carat type II went for $12.2m, so in the current market you would think $15m+ is likely for a larger version

Yes, I stopped looking at L2 as I agree that it makes no sense. Right now it is 1.75 to buy 500k shares, yet the advertised offer is 1.67. The bid side is the same, advertised at 1.65, but you only get 1.60 or so for 500k. Essentially there isn't a market at present for anything more than around £3-5k of shares. Nobody sensible is going to buy quantity when you are going to be instantly down 9%... interesting to see where things sit by early September.

The fact the price is flat tells you there are at least 2 parties exchanging shares at the current level.

To paddyboy and the like, I posted here frequently when I owned shares from July - September last year, I was then disgusted at the way they pulled the wool over PI's eyes in the half year report when it must have been obvious that ARR was declining. It was particularly odious that a PDMR was allowed to sell 100k shares in October at £2.10, less than 2 months before they dropped a big profit warning. It's in dire straights, there are no two ways about it.

Good assessment CVB. The business appears to be in terminal decline, they are very fortunate that they received a huge cash boost at the start of Covid or that debt could have sent them under. The forecasts in the market from progressive were for £29.7m revenue, £5.7m adjusted EBITDA and -£1.6m PBT. So they were already forecast to be loss making, and they've just missed target by at least £3m. Net debt was forecast to be -£6m, it will likely be worse than this now.

I'd value them at max 1 x revenue - net debt.

So £23m minus £9m (estimate) = £14m. So half where they trade right now.

However, even that is likely to be too high.

They co-CEO's need to go, they've had 5 years and delivered nothing but destruction.

Dhanteras = rakubaku? Your both spouting the same nonsense! The fact the offtake agreement has a specific start date is a huge positive in it's own right, no doubt if there wasn't a date then you would be saying there was no production in sight? The fact is the NPV of our Lithium assets is now straightforward; no more dilution until production, resource upgrades + price increases in Spod will add to our value. The lower the share price the higher the % upside, simple as.

Read the admission doc last night and was impressed with how far along their product is; FDA breakthrough device designation achieved in 2018 & on track for their first FDA approval by next year.

Why did it drop so fast? It’s super illiquid - 88% of shares held by significant shareholders, including 8% taken by Octopus in the IPO. No existing holders sold shares in the IPO so there is likely very little supply.

I suspect once people research it the market cap will rise to somewhere in line with VericiDX (£100m), they are certainly a lot further along the line than Lung Life AI who are valued at £50m.

Get FDA approval and it could 4 x from the current cap, and then there is the very realistic possibility they will dual list on NASDAQ.

In for 10k shares at 49p, let’s see where things go over the next 18 months. A small position as it’s too illiquid to do anything else!

Ignore the LSE stats, they are always wrong.

What matters is that volume of shares traded continues to impress, we've had 68.5m shares traded so far in July, this is by far the record monthly high since IRR IPO'd back in 2015 (July 2016 at 46m is the next closest, followed by June 21 at 45m). Year to date there have been 230m shares traded, again this is already a record for any calendar year. Free float excluding the major shareholders (>3% + Directors) is just 270m shares, so supply will dry up at some point. Once it does then we move into the 30's in a flash.

136k order on the book at 22.5p, matter of time until this re-rates.

Good luck raising the below CAPEX when they can only raise $21.1m at £1.20... this could fall a lot further in the medium term IMO.

Capex Saltend Refinery US$ 125M

Longonjo Mine and US$ 38M
Infrastructure

Longonjo Concentrator US$ 105M

Longonjo MRES Refinery US$ 124M

Growth Allowance and US$ 31M
Contingency

Thinking rationally, what should ODX be valued at? It was £18m pre Covid / UK RTC announcement. They’ve made nothing in the last 12 months, effectively missing an open goal multiple times. I think £30-40m max until they actually deliver. It’s no wonder insiders were selling most of the year!

The IPO was at 112p, starting trading at 120p. I said the same think as lukeskyCBG a couple of weeks ago, having been around AIM for a few years I've seen this many times before. The market is smelling something, it could be their end customers, it could be suppliers, it could be major shareholders. We'll see, but I'm staying well away.

Based on their pre pandemic revenues of around $26-28m, they have a solid company with decent potential, I don't think it's worth much more than £100m market cap until we see evidence of sustained revenue growth. Still on a PE of 25 at the current levels, at that's assuming they hit their 2021 targets...

"And worst of all AVCT dont even come out and say they dont know any reason for the drop."

This complaint really makes me laugh. The share price would have never got near the current level, nevermind 288p, if it wasn't for the out and out ramping of the CEO. Talking about selling millions of tests a month at a juicy margin, the best test in the world etc etc.

They've delivered absolutely nothing from a commercial point of view and started the back track on the last investor presentation. FFS the placees who got shares at 18p a couple of days before the first Covid RNS in April 2020 are still up by 600%... so yeah, if they don't deliver a huge contract the share price will continue to get stuffed.

@CautiousOptimist, how is the market sceptical? In April 2020 the share price was 18p, a market cap of around £30m, at that price the market was sceptical! I wonder how much the guys below made?

"The Subscription comprises of 11,111,110 subscription shares (the "Subscription Shares") at a price of 18 pence per new ordinary share ("Ordinary Shares"), being a 2% discount to 14 day volume weighted average of 18.4 pence. The two subscribers are Clare Hughes (wife of Richard Hughes, co founder of Zeus Capital) and Mahmud Kamani, co-founder of Boohoo.com."

Ignoring the AVCT Covid shenanigans (remember when they talked about having a test ready by mid 2020?! haha), what has actually changed in the last 15 months to justify a £400m market cap vs £30m in April 2020?

They raised £48m and expanded a couple of their programs a little (LG Chem, Daewoong etc), so you could argue a £100m market cap is justified, but what else?

AVA6000 is years away from even concluding P1, there are NASDAQ listed companies with promising treatments in P3 and more capital which are worth less than AVCT. AVA6000 It is pre clinical, worth very little at present. Even a P1 just proves safety, efficacy is years away.

Clearly Jupiter see this sinking back sub £1 as it's looking more and more likely that AffiDX is just one of hundreds of LFT's on the market... as per GDR, it's all talk and no walk.

There will be plenty that won't have seen this breakout yet, sure to be FOMO when they do. And of course those that sold on news and hoped to buy back under 20p... oops.

Assore : 120m
DGR Global : 73m
Piedmont : 54m
Sumitomo : 31.8m
Management : 19.1m

Total = 298m

So 52% of shares taken, leaving just 272m for everyone else to fight over.

If the average PI has 50k shares then that's enough for just 5440 shareholders. If demand is > supply for a sustained period then a GGP / SOLG move could happen as the resource expands. Once you actually do the research it's one of the most compelling cases I've seen on AIM.

Auction at 25.9p... could get interesting!

Appears that the sellers have been exhausted... surely a move to the 30p level is a minimum.

What I particularly like here is the shareholder base;

Assore 120m
DGR Global 73m
Piedmont

It'll be the 67m 7p placing shares that were issued last May that are getting dumped into the liquidity. Thursday's news has seen a major change in liquidity for IRR, the perfect time for anyone looking to exit with a substantial (200%+) profit. All it needs is time...

Could get interesting here very quickly if we get a few more 1.25m buys... that has institutional investor written all over it. Not many PI's going to drop £281k in a single trade!

Re. first quarter, that was very likely before the $10.5m of viroblock sales, so they would only need around $8-10m of recurring revenue to be ahead of Q1 2020. In my opinion the share price is doing it's best to tell everyone something...