Member Info for shandypants2

idiot

don't think it's as simple as just plugging in and restarting.

Firstly i think lockdown period will be longer than many expect, based on China. So period without any revenue could be over 3 months.
Then some people will feel uncomfortable being in big crowds so zoos, aquariums etc may not get the same level of footfall, at least initially.
Finally with the focus on germs and hygiene i'm not sure people will feel as comfortable putting on a headset that has been used by loads of other people. At a minimum every headset will need wiping down between use and this will slow things down. Level of use per day will therefore not be as high as before

think Tim Martin has damaged the Wetherspoons brand, lock down could last for 12 weeks,based on China example, and afterwards i think some people will be more careful where they drink and eat.

This coupled with the higher minimum wage will all impact Wetherspoons when things return to some sort of normality.

oh yes, and of course a director from one of our largest competitors, RB, has just bought 4% of the company.

She must see some value in our little company.

don't think i'll be in either Superdrug or Boots for quite a while!!
In hindsight maybe not the best time to launch Nuthing.

However, 2 more director buys in the last week (so now 5 in last month) is surely encouraging.

In this lovely weather and while self isolating took the dog for a long walk. Put a bit of wonder serum on my pale legs before wearing shorts for the first time in 2020 and also a bit of protect and glow sun screen on my face. I'm sure i'm not alone there, some people wear self tan all year round.

IMMO - is currently valued at £8m (IDP is £6m). It has never made a profit and has done 3 or 4 fundraises over last year or so. It's revenue is probably zero at the moment and may never fully recover - would you wear a VR headset without it being fully cleaned first? I still think there is value in IDP, in particular at these low prices. Anything under 40p looks great value IMHO

However, IMHO we are not at the bottom yet, next 2 weeks as UK and US death escalate things could get ugly.

this will probably go lower in short term.

Hostelworld have just announced an update relating to Covid 19 and are 10% down, whereas this is 10% up.

Doesn't make sense IMHO.

If things can get sorted in Europe by say end of June anything under 10p looks a decent entry price

Elrico , thanks for your response and TW's figures. They are indeed correct, however, he is quoting the cash figure NOT the revenue figure.
So i agree with all outstandings added on the total cash would be £1.3m. I presume this is the figure SOH confirmed to you. This is a decent cash position and one i am happy with.

This is not the same as revenue for the period, hence mine and Spike's observation that you cannot double count revenue.
I think there has been further confusion because the heading to this thread is 'revenue analysis' and you are quoting the cash figure that TW mentioned.

Anyway, I think we've got there in the end. I am not an accountant either BTW

Dynamo - do you get some kind of pleasure with your repeated negative posts? I see you do similar to BIDS and DISH repeatedly (neither of which i'm invested in BTW).

Of course there will be an impact on sales, 99% of companies are being massively impacted by this virus, which the biggest black swam event in the last 30 or so years.
FTSE 100 companies that are not travel or entertainment are still down over 50% so clearly the impact has been huge, and IDP has suffered accordingly.
Now it is valued at c£5m with a PE of c5 - so a revenue decline has already been priced in.

So what will the impact be? Who knows? I've read the Next statement last week and they have a similar business model (50% retail and 50% online) and they have estimated a 25% reduction in H2. This may be overly optimistic as it looks like stores will close.
For IDP Q4 is when most sales occur so at this point if we are in lockdown for 12 weeks this will have a massive impact. If people aren't going out sales of ST will clearly suffer.
However Q3 will probably be ok as had all the big retail purchases in anticipation for Q4.
So for H2 if sales were estimated at £10m i reckon 40% could be in Jan to March and £6m in Apr to June.
I don't think it's unrealistic to assume a 50% reduction in Q4 - so £3m rather than £6m.
As H1 did £5m and assuming Q3 still does c£4m then that's £12m for the year. Maybe profit for period will be c£1m.
Not terrible under the circumstances IMHO.

In our favour there are a few positives:
1, DTC will not be as greatly impacted as retail and over 50% of rev is via this channel
2. Retailers have already made big initial orders - Boots stocked up in late Jan
3. All sales in H2 will come out of existing inventory improving cash position
4. Food and pharmacies are still open so some sales will still occur (my local Boots has sold out of Wonder Serum!!)
5. We have no debt so this doesn't need servicing
6. Admin and salary costs are low ish
7. Marketing spend can be reduced accordingly

So it's not all doom and gloom is it??

Right James this is my last stab - don't bother answering. I did raise this a couple of months ago and was proved correct. Since then both Elrico and SOH have repeated this mistake, hence my recent post.

Below is a summary of invoices and accounts receivable (money owed).

Accounts receivable are "transactions your business has made for which payment is still due". So invoiced in period but not yet paid. By adding it onto revenue you are double counting. FACT

Sales Invoices and Ledgers
A sales invoice represents revenue that your company has earned. Using the accrual method of accounting, which treats a sale as income even before you have actually been paid for it, a sales invoice is an item to be entered in the revenue section of your ledger. Your total business earnings is a figure that includes the total amount of all of your sales invoices for a given period, as well as any additional income that your company has earned, such as from sale or rental of business property.

Sales Invoices and Accounts Receivable
Your financial accounting should also include a system for keeping track of which sales invoices have been paid by your clients, and which transactions represent revenue that still needs to be collected. Accounts receivable is the accounting term that describes sales or transactions that your business has made for which payment is still due. Keeping track of accounts receivable enables you to efficiently bill delinquent customers, and also provides information about whether cash flow shortfalls stem from low sales volume or customers who are slow to pay.

too many fundraises, never made a profit. I fear for this company

not at all - merely trying to establish an accounting principle.

Revenue can only be claimed once. If an invoice is issued in a time period the date it is paid is irrelevant.
The date it is paid effects the cashflow statement not the P/L.

Why would i undermine the confidence of a share i'm invested in.

Not every post has to be ultra positive.

The H2 numbers were poorly presented - included SBTX share sell income in revenue figures which confused. I'm guessing SOH isn't an accountant

I do enjoy reading Lemming investors but Elrico's analysis below seems wrong.

For H2 recently reported rev was £800k and the cashflow statement showed £514k unpaid invoices. This is standard as a lot of companies have say 90 days payment terms.
HOWEVER revenue and cashflow are not the same - the £514k is already included in the £800k figure so it would appear Elrico is double counting. So the £1.3m figure quoted is not accurate.
Do others agree?

In a trading update in January, he said he expected to meet his £1.2m - £1.3m sales, we should have confirmation of this in April when the FY results are provided to the market. What we are expecting confirmation of c£1.3m sales, confirmation a large proportion of the "debtor" figure of £514k has been paid as per invoice terms - this figure is simply invoiced sales yet to be received as cash in the bank. I know c50% of this sum had been paid by January, so it is likely more if not all would have been paid, giving OptiBiotix a small net cash position, slightly profitable.

I labour the above to demonstrate the infamous hockey stick analogy at FY, not period to period as a lot of investors expected, hence the selloff when H1 2019 figure of £148k sales. £808k H2 plus £514k assumed paid invoices from H2 give us a revenue of £1.3m for FY 2019.

Sales for 3 months of 2020 are c2.5 times the H1 £148K. It is worth noting December is a very quiet period in terms of sales, making the figure even more impressive, more so given the 2.5 times, H1 does not include sales from any of the three product launches in January.

If I assume 3 times £148k for H1 2020, = c£444k with 3 months to be accounted for, then H2 becomes very interesting because we know historically sales/invoices paid are H2 heavy. The bulk of these will be made up from H&B, Alphasigma and Seed health, the latter generating sales of $1m plus PER MONTH - what OptiBiotix's share of royalties is, is anyone's guess. Then we have a raft of smaller sales generated from Galenicum, HLH, Pharmabiota, Kappa, John Morely, CII, 39ytu Capsa Food, Agropur, Cambridge, Sacco, Velinoff, Nutrilinea, etc, etc. Some of these will be entering their first full year, thus still establishing revenue avenues, so don't expect too much from the individual partners.

Now $6,275 - an impressive rise, hopefully will continue.

I recently read that Gold took a bit of a hammering in 2008 when the market crashed and it was only when QE kicked in that the price started rises, reaching a peak in 2011.

This fall has mirrored this initially with Gold also down and now loads of QE measures.
Bitcoin has also taken a hammering, far more than gold, so hopefully this is the start of the price rise.

An increase of BTC price over the next few weeks coupled with decent year end numbers and strategy update could see this fly.

i think i heard earlier that study was based in Southampton - unfortunately

Agreed James B - they can sell on the peaks not when mined. March will still be profitable, and how many companies can say that!

5,800 now - decent rally today. Let's hope it continues.

Topped up at 2.8p - seems v.low IMHO

After results next week hopefully we will see a few Board buys - this will indicate confidence.

My buy has appeared as a sell - 54p

I think there has been a massive over reaction to this RNS compounded with the timing.

It appears the March 2019 RNS was poorly worded but the results are correct, Ferracru is non inferior to the IV over a 12 week period. Additionally results over longer time periods are equally impressive.
Clearly results would not have been as positive if the drop outs were included (and these could have been for unrelated issues) but this cohort is deemed unreliable so should not have been included in the study in the first place.

IMHO this has probably come to light as US negotiations are in a detailed stage.

It doesn't impact EU or FDA approval or existing commercial agreements. It does impact marketing claims going forward though hence why i think negotiations are at a detailed stage.

IMHO if a patient has severe aenamia they may need an IV to get an immediate uplift. If however iron levels are consistently low the STX option is both cheaper and more convenient. Nothing has changed.

I have topped up today and will continue to do so at these low prices.

it appears the chinese factories are back up so hopefully there are no stock issues (should really have had a surplus in Jan with Chinese NY shut down anyway). So the big issue is Corona virus impact, and this is unknown as the company has been silent.

Thus far hopefully trading has been unaffected as shops still seem to be ok but the self isolation in the next month or so will clearly have an effect on all retailers.
As UPGS deal with cookware and household items it is possible these could be in more demand not less.

It would be good to get some communication from UPGS as current share price looks a steal.

but still the share falls. Company doing well and has money.

With shift to corporate clients last year the retail side being impacted by Corona is only 18% of business and in total revenue is up 30% in 2020 to date.

So even if this 18% goes to zero Equals may continue to grow in 2020.

Must be a massive bargain at these prices