Member Info for shandypants2

sharebag - SKIN has been a massive positive in a wave of negative revenue updates due to covid 19 and last few RNSs have all been good and show company is growing and delivering. IMHO can't believe this is valued so low.

So why has share price dropped c 50% in last 2 months?

IMHO maybe GB has lost some trust since the Dec fundraise and maybe there are concerns with the current cash position.

If we were to have another fundraise in late 2020 this would be a disaster.
YE and Q1 figures will be important to provide market with some reassurance - we need to be profitable in 2020 and yet GB never mentions this in interviews etc

JBo - Boots are prioritising essential goods via online so out of stock on other items is now common. It is not an indication that sales are high.

says we are not profitable and won't be for the next 3 years!!! Not sure what they are basing that on as it's clearly completely wrong. 89% undervalued would value ARB at c£90m BTW

peaking? Record deaths last 2 days and number of new cases risen by 40% in 1 day?? We are definitely not at peak. Market is behaving irrationally IMHO

speak to your broker, if you have one.They should have further info.

Agree with point re marketing personnel - isn't that the new CEOs area of expertise?

company must have been running on fumes lately so placing is/was much needed. 0,8p not a great price, but we are where we are.

Hopefully we can move on from here now

From recent RNS - A significant element of the Company's revenue is made during the Summer school holidays, therefore on the proviso normal service is resumed by July we would expect to see a quick recovery in trading.

No timescales for reduction in lockdown or what strategy is in both Uk and US. Great rise in last few days but based on sentiment and not fact. Hopefully things will be fine by the summer, but no guarantee

Cautious - previous overly optimistic statements from IDP are all due to previous CEO Haris who was always a glass half full man. He has now left. In terms of BOD they are not excessively paid, they have not replaced Haris so effectively 2 are doing work of 3, and until late March the business was functionally as normal. This is only just over 2 weeks ago. This is not a company who has seen there revenue fall to zero overnight. Maybe changes will occur re wages and furloughing staff if lockdown is continued into summer.

I agree with your comment that this in predominantly a 3 month business as peak tanning sells are April to June, and clearly it is an unknown what impact the current situation will have, hence the RNS. However, i disagree with DTC comment as this is a RNS so company cannot state sales are healthy to date via this channel if they are not.

Clearly if lockdown goes through the summer this will have a big impact on revenues but it is also possible things may be relaxed in May and June. We just don't know at this time.

The other thing you have omitted is that whilst retail sales will be minimal during lockdown all retailers have already made large orders. Boots restocked in Jan (including 800 extra stores) plus SD for ST and nuthing and now the new Tesco order.
It is likely that these orders will total over £2m . With stock levels increased in anticipation of these (and to prevent selling out as happened with wonder serum last year) this will go straight on the profit line - i reckon stock of £1m released and £2m revenue generated.

I don't think you can just look at H1 figures as IDP make a loss in H1 every year - it also includes R&D which won't occur in H2. Last year IDP made £1.4m profit - 0.4m loss in H1 and £1.8m profit in H2.

IDP revenue will definitely suffer in H2 however DTC will at least ensure a reasonable performance and hopefully IDP will be in a position to preserve cash.
I'm expecting full year rev of between £10 and £12m . I think that puts us in a much better position than many companies of a similar size - DISH, IMMO and SSTY to name but 3

BTC price now at it's highest for about a month. ARB share price was in the 5p to 6p range before the 25% on day drop yet it remains well below this price.
Very frustrating that it tracks BTC down and only partly up.

In the background more machines and improved mining efficiency are just ignored.

Sometimes i question if i have just got this share wrong. Other days i'm waiting for the time when this 3 or 4 bags!

James - H1 net profit was c£0.95m and we know that rev for Q3 and Q4 was c£3.6m and £2.6m with margins of over 70% and 50% respectively so the net profit for year will be c£4m hopefully (depends on admin and wages etc).

We have used this profit to purchase more machines so that will impact the cashflow not the profit.

But you are right if cash has been spent on new machines then there may not be enough for dividends.

However, Jan to March rev is £6m so that should generate net profit of c£2m.

Also 42% margin indicates that mining is c$3,700 per coin - puts us in a good position for halving as with odd machines turned off it should be c25% easier to mine - so $7,500 cost comes down to c$6k. New machines arriving this month are even more efficient - i thin c$2,500 a coin (so $5k after halving), however, that will only be 10% of ARBs machines.
If BTC prices rise back to c$10k then we are still quids in

serious question, what r people expecting to happen in the next 5 years?

I can only think that selling Red Leg is the only big option the BOD has. All other brands are struggling and cashflow is tight.

What else could push the share price back up?

Also general question - anyone know split of rev between supermarket sales and pubs etc as the latter will currently be zero

sorry - wrong board please ignore!!!!

serious question Diab - what r u expecting to happen in the next 5 years?

I can only think that selling Red Leg is the only big option the BOD has. All other brands are struggling and cashflow is tight.

What else could push the share price back up?

Also general question - anyone know split of rev between supermarket sales and pubs etc as the latter will currently be zero

Agreed John D - this is not a travel or entertainment share so whilst clearly impacted revenues were never going to be zero.
Also retailers all put in decent orders prior to peak tanning season so that should support revenues in Q3. Clearly Q4 could be bad if lockdown is extended into next few months.

FinnCap update below - no surprises.

InnovaDerma*
COVID-19 trading update
InnovaDerma provided a trading update (including Q3) that highlighted the recent
impact of COVID-19 on its distribution channels and customers. The
Government’s lockdown on 23 March authorising social distancing and only
essential travel and shopping has resulted in a sharp decline in sales through
retail stores. However, DTC channel sales, which accounted for c.60% of
revenues in FY 2019, continue to perform very well. Given that the Board is
reviewing its full-year expectations, we are withdrawing forecasts and our price
target until we have greater clarity over the impact.
?Trading update. Trading in the second half of the year began positively and was in
line with expectations up until the lockdown came into effect on 23 March. Since then,
the measures taken by Government to control non-essential movement and practice
social distancing have seen a sudden shift in consumer behaviour, which has
significantly slowed the sales of its brands through bricks and mortar channels (ie.
Boots, Superdrug, Tescos etc). The DTC channel, which accounted for c.60% of
revenue in FY2019 (c.£7.8m), continues to perform very well. InnovaDerma made the
point that it has healthy levels of inventory (c.£3.9m at 31 December), given the buildup to the peak self-tanning season, and that its supply chain remains strong. It also
continues to make timely deliveries to its customers.
?Cash. As at 31 March, InnovaDerma states that it had sufficient levels of cash and no
debt. However, given the UK Government’s lending initiatives for small businesses
during this crisis, it is assessing a debt facility with its bank, Barclays plc, should the
business require funds.
?Our thoughts. We had been forecasting c.£9.5m of revenues in H2 FY 2020, of
which c.£6.0m was expected to go through DTC channels with the balance (£3.5m)
through retail channels. Whilst March and Q4 retail sales are expected to be
significantly affected, it is less clear how the loss of purchasing power through job
losses may affect online sales and whether there will be a transition of the retail
footfall to online instead.
?Forecasts and valuation. On the back of this statement we remove our forecasts for
FY 2020 and FY 2021, together with our price target, until we have greater clarity
over the duration of the lockdown and impact that it has to retail channel sales and
whether, if at all, DTC channel sales are able to offset this.

about as positive as they can be in the circumstances - clearly retail massively impacted, but stores still open which means they will at least be selling some and DTC unimpacted. As over 50% of rev is via DTC this is great news (company's like Next have shut their DTC so their rev is zero).

Share price has declined c50% as per most other companies, maybe it is a little overdone.

Rev of £11m and £1m profit is not unrealistic based on poor retail for rest of H2.

Big Tesco order has been made too - now selling ST

https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/search?query=skinny%20tan

really encouraging that mining margin is 42% despite a reduction in BTC for most of the month. Makes me think that maybe there are some one-off costs when new machines are installed as they were in Feb when margin was slightly disappointing at c50%.
Making a profit in these tough times puts ARB on a massive advantage to 99% of other shares.
Net profit for 3 months should be c£2.5m

Brooko on 9th March you stated this share could reach 25p. Now you are the most negative poster on here and repeatedly post this.

You need to take a chill pill. Be safe

Iron - the March one was a delayed announcement from Feb - he was actually hoping to announce 2 in March.

Clearly Covid 19 won't be helping getting these contracts finalised etc but the reality is we've had 1 in Jan and 1 in March - after he said he was expecting 1 a month. Clearly this is not an exact science but ORPH is slightly behind the curve

he did say in an interview he hoped it would be concluded in Q1. So it seems discussions were going well etc however these things are not an exact science and covid 19 has clearly not helped. I don't think he can issue a RNS as nothing has materially changed. An interview may be more appropriate however if discussions are at a sensitive stage this will not be possible.
No news could indicate good news

could be a good day tomorrow- hopefully decent RNS for March and BTC back to $7k.
About time we saw some of the cash/profits translate into share price increases