Member Info for shandypants2

FYI - the 315p valuation does not include the US deal as it is not agreed yet.

Being quoted 120p/123p to sell/buy now - slowly moving up. Hopefully back to 150p in next month in anticipation of US deal

agree DD but this is a wage deferral not a pay cut - 'saved' money will be paid at a later point in time. Hence my comment re placing

I have emailed the company re YE numbers as there are a few that concerned me e.g how can H1 admin costs be £632k and yet YE be well over £3m, so a massive increase in H2.
I'm just going through the responses so will post later.
However, in answer to the gross margin % - monthly figures include hosting costs only (defined below) and NOT depreciation (unfortunately!!).

5. In cost of sales there is a figure for ‘hosting and other costs’ of £3.476m Is this the electricity costs? What other costs are included here?
This relates to our complete hosting fees. This includes electricity, support, maintenance, security, provision of data centers, etc., across our various sites.
6. Finally for clarification when monthly revenue numbers are provided and a gross margin % does this gross margin relate to hosting costs only or is depreciation also included?
This includes our hosting costs only.

Hero - pretty sure they are not in the monthly update. Depreciation is included in the H1 and final result though.
For YE margin was c35% but according to Q3 2019 gross margin was reported as 73% and Q4 at 52%.
So we are making money but not as much as i would like!

a bit disappointed with April update.

Didn't realise that difficulty increased but based on coins mined average price was c$7k a coin. Whilst this was the price for much of the month we had a big rise in last few days and finished month in the high $8s.
Now are very well remunerated CEO tells us that we don't sell BTC immediately and can hold it to get a better price.
In the April figures there is no evidence that this is happening.
My other concern is the margin rate - 38%. With a higher BTC price than March to offset the mining difficulty i was hoping for slightly higher.
It could be some of the cost of the new machines was included in this figure, as was the case in Feb.
We will have to wait another month or so for a better comparison.
If £700k gross profit that could be only £100k net profit as i expect admin to be c£250k a month and depreciation c£350k per month.
CEO needs admin costs to be reduced massively in 2020 else much of the gross profit is just going into CEO and others pockets.

yes revenue increase is great, but still massively loss making and cash will run out by August/Sept.

Still a big risk IMHO and can see a heavily discounted placing in next few months.

why the congratulations? This was 80p only c2 months ago - dropped to high 30s and now back up to low 70s.
All this recent rise has done in show how undervalued IDP is/was.

I can't see a takeover either but we are definitely on people's radar

Hi Cooper. Yes NFX is an exciting prospect. I'm expecting news on NXP002 to drop in next week or so. Also potential post covid play too so that could be interesting

ORPH is less risky and will continue to add value through the year. Additionally if Flu or malaria vaccines get taken on this could lift off.

Happy to hold both

think the RNS was a bit underwhelming. Good that GFIN are in this space but need a decent commercially positive event ASAP to show that money can be made

yes, good interview. New deal one of many existing leads they are converting so steady progress there - challenge study lab could do £48m a year - up from c£14m in previous years.

Hopefully news on flu vaccine soon and his comment re malaria vaccine could be interesting - didn't realise much was happening in this space.

Happy to hold and let things pan out.

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/next-step-a-us-partnering-deal/26746

with BTC back above $9k we should see above 6p tomorrow (minimum).

April figures should hopefully show revenue increase of 15% on previous month so that should have a positive impact too.

Just looking back when BTC was last at $10k in Feb 2020 this share was over 7p and back in August BTC was $11,700 ARB was over 10p. So above $10k a 10% increase in BTC produced a 30% plus increase in ARB

hopefully with any bad news now out the way May should now see a steady rise as we get closer to the US deal announcement, which could drop in the next few weeks IMHO.
Anything under £1.50 represents a great buying opportunity with c50% immediate upside from there once US deal announced . At these prices c100% upside IMHO

when the recent 4% of shares was acquired i am led to believe that IDP knew nothing of this until the TR1 was issued.
It is possible that this is merely a company or individual acquiring a small % of IDP and a TR1 will shed light on this next week.

If it is the start of an approach and the acquirer wants IDP Board support i suspect the minimum price will need to be £1.20 as this is the minimum price when the recent options can be exercised.

Should be an interesting week ahead

BTC back above $8,900 - surely this will go blue soon

there was also another large buy, after hours yesterday at 69.5p.

These shares will need to come from somewhere. I expect this to keep rising today. Also means over 2% of IDP purchased in 2 separate trades yesterday. If these are the same buyer someone is seriously interested

Sirius - agree re Teva, however, remember this is an appeal, Teva lost the initial challenge. Also i believe CEO mentioned it is only the last few years of the patent that is being challenged, not the entire patent. E.g. 2029 v 2032

agree Triggerboy. Feb update (with new machines) showed over 50% increase in monthly revenues and yet SP went nowhere.

Maybe April update will be the one - although i suspect not!!

The monthly updates give us a revenue figure and a gross margin. I think the margin is merely the mining cost (electricity etc) and will NOT include depreciation and admin costs etc.

Based on 2019 numbers i think admin will be £250k pm going forward and £350k pm for depreciation (as many more machines.

So in simply terms if in April rev is £2.4m and margin is 50% that's £1.2m gross profit.
Deducting £600k for depreciation of machines and admin and we get a net profit of £600k.

For Q1 2020 rev was £6m. Applying the same figures gives £3m gross profit and £1.2m net profit.

Profit for 2020 as a whole could be between £4m and £7m based on above and assuming no major changes in BTC prices

dsfat - agree with your estimate, although hoping margin will be slightly higher as BTC prices are between 10 and 20% (depending on day) higher than March average.

Also is Monday a bank holiday???