Member Info for shandypants2

cheers Trek, can only be a positive for BTC IMHO

DYOR - well as the main drivers on this share price are the price of oil and KRG payments, neither of which can be determined DYOR is pretty limited on GKP.
Essentially it's a gut feel buy/sell - do you think the world situation will get better or worse.

yep looking good. BTC price rising, now at its highest for over a month, and results to quantify the earning potential here to drop ASAP. I'm hoping for a special divi of 0.5p which at current prices is an attractive yield of c9%

Han**** said all tests when he referred to the increase to 100k tests per day, focus has been on antigen as there was no reliable antibody test. Hopefully there is now.

Although only c20k tests being undertaken daily ATM i think govt has said they have capacity for c40k. With ODXs 46k a day then we are close to the 100k target

yes agree magic - mentioned vaccines and then said he couldn't discuss it... so something is in the pipeline

I don't think you can blame Carl for too much of the share price reduction.

From 180p it appeared to be impacted by a number of things e.g
- after Chinese deal it was inferred that US deal may take a little longer (Q1 was previously mentioned, now Q2)
- general unease with all shares due to COVID 19
- school boy mistakes re H2H and the timing of the correction RNS couldn't have been worse

Now ultimately the buck stops with the CEO so i do see your point.

Interestingly re-read the RNS from yesterday and i think Carl's stubbornness to get the right deal may have been his downfall. No deal is perfect, there always has to be some give and take and this has clearly dragged on. The RNS (see below) states value of a US deal for Shield AND shareholders. Perhaps a few large shareholders were getting frustrated.

Personally i think we are close and Q2 date will be achieved - the change in CEO appears to be to ensure there are no further delays.

Recognising the value to Shield and its shareholders of successfully completing the ongoing US partnering activities for Feraccru®/Accrufer®, Carl has willingly agreed to actively support Tim over the coming months, thereby ensuring his knowledge and expertise of Feraccru®/Accrufer® are readily available to the Company through to the closing of a partnering agreement in the United States.

no Tanya, well run companies make a profit and have cash in the bank for this situations. What you meant is all loss making companies need funds at some point.

My point is there is nothing positive at this point in time - if social distancing is extended until 2021 this will have a massive impact on DISH, and potentially a bigger impact than on other companies. You can't polish a turd!

Ronald - stop ramping.
Last RNS said funding until end of this year, not into next year and also further funding would be needed - see below.
Dish is still incurring costs now, albeit at a reduced rate and will then need funding to for marketing etc when things return to normal, whenever that will be.

RNS - Whilst the Company has taken the necessary steps to preserve cash it also acknowledges the need that further funding will need to be made available at some point in the future in order to reignite growth.

See - everyone has their own reasons for selling and you are perfectly entitled to do so, at a price c20% above today's, even if you made a decent loss.
In terms of your 3 points can i add the following:
1) Feraccru DID achieve it's main objective , namely being non inferior to the IV equivalent over a 12 week period. It appears the issue relates to incorrectly labelling the trial to include drop outs during the 12 week period - which SHOULD have been included anyway. This trial was also for marketing purposes and has no impact on FDA etc
2) A good CEO leaving is never a positive however in this case maybe this will help the US deal. Maybe that Carl wanted to go down a specific route and was not prepared to compromise. The RNS states he will stay on to assist CLOSING the US deal, so that's a positive IMHO. He also has over 10m shares so clearly will want a healthy return on that .
3) Patent dispute - yes it is a concern but STX won the initial claim and this is an appeal. According to CEO it only impact the last few years of the patent anyway, i think 2029 was mentioned (but don't quote me on that). Also the Chinese deal was still achieved whilst this appeal was ongoing so it appears ASK weren't overly concerned.

On a positive you have also omitted the US deal which is a game changing for STX. This was due in q2 so could drop in next month or so.

So overall i think there are a lot more positives than negatives with this stock, but clearly nothing is guaranteed.

and perhaps you are being overly optimistic Tanya.

When restaurants open they will have less tables so less need to offer discounts.
Also loads of massive firms in the takeaway space - Deliveroo has just raised £450m from Amazon, as an example.
Not sure you can talk about potential at this point in time when it is a complete unknown
However, IMHO restaurants will be open before xmas - maybe Sept at the latest.

just checked H1 accounts - £728k depreciation was included in the cashflow statement. It appears it was included in the cost of mining figure in the P/L rather than broken down separately. If so it makes our mining margin really competitive i.e it is the cost of electricity plus cost of hardware.
I must admit i thought it would just be the former.

It will be interesting to see what depreciation figure ARB assign on YE accounts. I think newer machines may be depreciated over 3 years so 1/3 of actual cost will be included (although we had a lot less machines in 2019 so that will keep amount down) and with halving imminent the oldest machines , s9 i think, will become redundant overnight. Luckily ARB has stated only 1% of their hardware is the old machines.
Based on H12019 figures (£2.93m rev and net profit of £0.94m) plus published Q3 and Q4 rev figures that gives ARB a total rev of £9.2m and PBT of c£4m - this may be reduced due to machine depreciation, so let's say £3m.
Noticed CEO stated YE rev was £8.5m for 2019 - which is c0.7m out of previously announced figures.

Hopefully this discrepancy can be cleared up ASAP and some formal YE numbers will hopefully lead to a re-rating.
When you have a stock that is so undervalued and has been for months you start questioning your own logic a bit!!!

yes this took off late yesterday - it would be nice if this was due to rumours of a US deal.

Maybe with lockdown it has actually helped negotiations as directors have more time to focus on strategic initiatives.
CEO has always stated it is important to get the right deal and also the need to get a large upfront payment - personally i think he's played hardball in negotiations and it is telling that CFO stated that a few companies have re-entered discussions i.e. they walked away when STX terms were announced but have reflected and come back to the table.
There has never been a better time for an IV alternative.

Personally can't believe how low this has dropped - £2 with a deal is still pretty cheap.

always positive when Board has skin in the game and are buying more.

Schools are a really good place to be in - need to make costs savings and older buildings are not energy efficient. Most have expensive strip lighting etc. Can only do this work during holiday periods so current lockdown is actually a bonus. Summer period will also be busy but as July/Aug these revs will appear in H2. Monthly rev of c£1m a month is encouraging

good news, thanks for the update. Notice MWG up 20% on the back of this, yet no reaction on SKIN side. SKIN gets 40% based on revenue share agreement so i see this as a very positive step

i agree Hale - no covid update surely means it's BAU and although the end of March date was always a finger in the air the fact that it's radio silence suggests to me that negotiations re NXP002 are quite advanced so NFX are unable to make comment.

I've just topped up in the hope that no news is good news!

well it appears retail performance will be woeful in Q4 (April to June - peak tanning) and it looks like St Tropez has almost written off next few months.

For IDP FInnCap recently said the following:
?Our thoughts. We had been forecasting c.£9.5m of revenues in H2 FY 2020, of
which c.£6.0m was expected to go through DTC channels with the balance (£3.5m)
through retail channels. Whilst March and Q4 retail sales are expected to be
significantly affected, it is less clear how the loss of purchasing power through job
losses may affect online sales and whether there will be a transition of the retail
footfall to online instead.

So £3.5m retail in H2. If the initial early Q3 orders account for almost half of this it is fair to assume a £2m hit in Q4.

Then IDP has the advantage over competitors that it's DTC is so strong. On a positive DTC could take some of the retail market and there is an argument that no foreign holidays could increase UK self tanning sales. On the negative with money tight and little social interaction self tanning could suffer.
I would think it prudent to say DTC will do ok but will suffer a little - maybe a £1m hit.

So overall YE revenues are c£12m that won't be a disaster, IMHO

UK medical advisers today - there will need to be an element of social distancing until a virus is found. If so, this will impact all food and entertainment spaces this summer at a minimum and summer is the main revenue earning period for IMMO.

Next few months will be interesting to see if zoos, aquariums can re-open and if so in what format

Glebe - not saying you are wrong but...

GB said for 3 months from Sept to Nov that cash was fine and then did a raise.
SKIN is currently loss making so it will be very difficult to get cash from bank on reasonable terms.
Lloyds will be massively effected by COVID 19, hence their share price deduction, so not a great comparison.

If as you state SKIN hasn't and won't be massively impacted by COVID (which i agree with ) why such a large price decrease over last 2 months, despite some really good RNSs, which was my original question?

sharebag - SKIN has been a massive positive in a wave of negative revenue updates due to covid 19 and last few RNSs have all been good and show company is growing and delivering. IMHO can't believe this is valued so low.

So why has share price dropped c 50% in last 2 months?

IMHO maybe GB has lost some trust since the Dec fundraise and maybe there are concerns with the current cash position.

If we were to have another fundraise in late 2020 this would be a disaster.
YE and Q1 figures will be important to provide market with some reassurance - we need to be profitable in 2020 and yet GB never mentions this in interviews etc