Member Info for shandypants2

i think the current price decline is due to the perceived delay in the US deal and also current market uncertainty which is effecting ALL stocks.

However, as the patent question has been raised here so i thought i do some digging.
STX has 2 patents that run until 2032 and 3205 respectively - see details below.
Teva has appealed these decisions, but thus far very little seems to have happened. There are no details on the appeal as this process has not completed. From experience of similar appeals it is often used for clarification purposes regarding the extent of the patent.

The main one is #2 668 175 which was appealed on 16/5/19 and on 13/8/19 a statement of grounds was filed. STX RNSed this in early June 2019.
This patent DOES cover China (code CN) so the fact we have recently signed a deal with China is a massive positive IMHO.

# 3 160 951 seems a lesser issue and it lists 23/6/20 as the date of oral proceedings.

So IMHO this is a bit of a red herring - STX cannot make any comment as the process is out of their control. The Chinese deal has only recently been signed and FDA approval is a massive hurdle for any competitors, if any exist. IMHO it's business as usual.

The Group has been made aware that a 3rd party has raised objections with the European Patent Office (EPO) to the Group's patents (#2 668 175 and # 3 160 951) which cover "Process for preparing an iron hydroxypyrone" and "Crystalline forms of ferric maltol" respectively. On the basis of specialist advice received and the fact both patents went through an extensive examination process prior to grant, the Group continues to have full confidence in the validity of the patents which expire in 2032 and 2035, and intends to robustly defend its intellectual property, if required. Further information is available on the website of the European Patent Office (EPO) (www.epo.org) and the Group will provide updates in due course.

and ARB are not selling realtime so can hold the BTC until prices rise. The share price just tracking BTC price down with no adjustment for extra machines etc is madness

The CFO mentioned this either in Q&As or in conversation after the Feb presentations - this was mentioned on ADVFN.
They are not negotiating with one company and process has been complicated as other companies have re-entered process.

In terms of patents - there are 2 separate ones. The 1st STX won however it has been appealed. STX has previously mentioned this only relates to final few years on patent period. Currently these run to 2032 and 2035 respectively. The patent numbers are below if anyone want to do more digging

The Group has been made aware that a 3rd party has raised objections with the European Patent Office (EPO) to the Group's patents (#2 668 175 and # 3 160 951) which cover "Process for preparing an iron hydroxypyrone" and "Crystalline forms of ferric maltol" respectively. On the basis of specialist advice received and the fact both patents went through an extensive examination process prior to grant, the Group continues to have full confidence in the validity of the patents which expire in 2032 and 2035, and intends to robustly defend its intellectual property, if required. Further information is available on the website of the European Patent Office (EPO) (www.epo.org) and the Group will provide updates in due course.

it is a really positive update,as good as could be expected, but with US and UK the main markets it is the next few weeks that will be critical.
As i mentioned earlier Easter will be a big period for IMMO and this could be during a 'lockdown' or similar.
Having said that if this drops further i will be tempted to top up

the only short term positive is that the big discounts offered when booking are non refundable so not all cancellations will impact cashflow.

Clearly this will go lower short term but it will recover IMHO - still a decent company

surely post halving the impact will be as follows:
1. some miners will stop thus increase hash rate
2. BTC price MAY rise to offset halving
3. ARB could focus on most efficient machines only to maximise efficiency
4. ARB could focus mining on other crypto currencies in short term

So whilst it will almost certainly have an impact it is not all doom and gloom

As i type BTC almost at $8,100 so slowly recovering too

IDP current valuation is c£7m. In 2019 it made over £1m PAT and this year is due to increase revenues and profit. Coronavirus may have an impact but this is not a travel or entertainment stock so impact should be limited.

Surely this is massively undervalued even with current market sentiment

US response has been a joke so thy will be massively impacted in a few weeks, and if rest of Europe follows Italy, and flights are still coming and going from there to UK cities every day, then IMMO will be significantly impacted.
Easter is c4 weeks away. A big revenue generator for IMMO, however, this year it will be dead. At a minimum headsets will need to be cleaned/disinfected after every use.
Headset strategy only works with high usage. This is a black swan event for IMMO

not looking good. What impact is/will corona virus have?

yes Cathal doing his best to get ORPH on people's radars and show it has valuable assets that can /need to be utilised during these difficult times.

Surely value will come soon

surely a massive bargain at these prices

today's trading statement is not unexpected. Next month or so could be painful if rest of Europe follows Italy's approach

clearly markets are tanking and corona will have an impact on the UK economy but as of today we don't know how much and for how long.
Experts are saying it is a winter virus so although March/April may be bad it should clear up as the temperature improves.

On the whole retailers should be least effected, which is good for IDP (other than the general slowdown in the economy) and we also have the DTC arm which lessens that impact too.

On a positive IDP has no debt and in H1 built up significant stock levels in anticipation of H2 so there should not be any supply issues. In Jan/Feb we delivered big orders to Boots and SD and Tesco initial order is about now. These payments will be received in H2 (c90 to 120 payment terms).

It is possible that there could even be a positive for IDP - if people take less foreign holidays this year then maybe more will buy self tanners.

Other products such as shampoos, skin care and the PE product (prolong) should be unaffected however these revenues are much lower.

So on balance hopefully H2 numbers are still achievable despite this black swan event

don't forget not only is ARB profitable at these levels it doesn't sell real time so with cash in bank it can just hold coins mined and sell them as and when they want.
CEO has already stated that's what they are doing now, whereas last year they need to sell to fund new machine purchases

is that XPD Spencer? If so that is also massively undervalued.

With ARB guessing people people just don't understand it and/or concerned re halving coming up.

Even in today's market how can a company increase revenue by 50% in 1 month and yet it's share price goes down!!!

https://www.xxxmarkets.co.uk/media/5e6101610a204d0017843dc3/?context=/series/daily-podcast/

replace xxx with vox.

Good interview, things are progressing well - yes some concern for coronavirus but impact unclear . So we drop over 10%

agree Duke - we've just announced a 50% increase in revenue and it has had zero impact on the share price - unbelievable.

March has 2 more days than Feb (so over 5% increase) and with extra machines installed ahead of schedule that's another c5% increase on Feb, so as long as BTC price doesn't dip March revenues should be even higher.

great news - Cathal doing what he said he would. Expect further similar contracts to drop - he said c 1 a month.

Getting in under placing price is showing how undervalued they are

Just - great little company but they don't do sanitizers just standard hand washes. Might see a small increase as guidance is to wash with soap and water but there are no anti bacterial elements to these products.
Anything under 40p is a bargain - PE of only 8

agree this is massively undervalue but lack of payments is now a massive concern.
July 2019 was paid in Oct - within the 3 month guidelines.
In Dec we were told that Aug and Sept would be paid in Jan.
However, in Jan we only received Aug payment, and Sept payment arrived in early Feb.
The October payment, that should also have arrived by end of Jan has yet to be paid.

With market uncertainty and declining oil prices this has created a perfect storm.

I will be topping up but would like to see the October payment arrive first.