Member Info for shandypants2

today's broker note seems a little rushed and revenue guidance of £14.7m seems very conservative.

Looking at the numbers they have ST rev of £12.5m (only 3% growth in H2) Roots 0.9, C+L 0.3 , Prolong 0.5, NUthing 0.4 and Growlase 0.1.

There are 3 growth areas here not represented in these figures. Firstly ST should grow by more than 3% in H2 especially as we are now in an extra 800 Boots and over 700 Tesco stores. These initial orders could be c£250k in total for starters.
I expect ST to grow by over 10% in H2 so can see rev well over £13m for full year (H1 was 4.2m).
C+L. They have miscalculated this. RNS states growth of 188% and they have quoted 88%. Full year should be c500k not the 300k they have estimated - so £200k improvement.
Finally the £500k Far East order for Prolong is not in figures - assume they are not sure if regulatory approval will be given. Whilst a reasonable approach to take if it does come in then rev will clearly rise by this amount.
All in i think the figures are c£1m light not including Prolong deal.

If marketing costs can be managed in H2 then £2m profit is still very much achievable IMHO.

First 7 weeks rev up 17% in comparison with 2019 so a decent start - probably helped by increased Boots order though.

H1 2020 results are a little disappointing IMHO. I was hoping for small profit so to make a £300k loss, albeit better than H1 2019 is underwhelming. The increase in marketing spend (up £600k) is the main contributor here - as it is not peak tanning season and we have a database of over 600k customers i was hoping this would be managed better. Essentially rev increased by £1.2m due to £600k extra marketing spend.

On the positive ST is going great guns - now in every Boots store (fantastic) and also 700 Tescos - well done.

The extra inventory will no doubt be partly to manage the big early 2020 order for Boots stores plus SD and Tesco etc, as well as stock for NU Thing roll out.

Roots is a bit of a concern, but i could see this coming. The product is ok, i use it, but packaging is poor and price is high. IDPs excuse is poor too.

FinnCap broker note has reduced rev just under £15m and profit to £1.8. This seems to be worst case scenario as Roots is massively down and i think it assume Prolong will not get Far East regulatory approval during period. I also think there C+L figures are wrong and too low
Personally i think ST will offset part of this can hopefully NU Thing may surprise a few and make more than the £400k predicted.

so 3 products - a wax, a jelly (hair removal cream) and shaving gels - and 3 of each so 9 SKUs in total.

Hair removal is mainly shaving or cream so both methods are covered here - this is millions of women and i'm guessing thousands of men too.

Good to see interest from SA, OZ and US already.

Wolo, surely part of the reason the share price has gone up recently is because it was mega cheap and we've had 3 or 4 decent RNSs over the last month or two.
ITX is still only valued at £5m though so even with unique and patented biotech that is cheap e.g SKIN has similar revenues for 2019 but is valued at c£15m (and was £20m until recent fundraise).
ITX need to resolve short term cash constraints before this will move forward significantly. None of the recent RNSs mention ££ which is always a red flag in my book.
If revenues keep growing at current pace ITX should be a £10m plus company IMHO but only when cash is sorted

also general consensus seems to be that US deal will be in Q2 not Q1. It's still a when not if though IMHO

i disagree it was a non event. He confirmed NXP002 negotiations have been going well - he didn't need to say that.
Similarly he reconfirmed the end of Q1 date - he had the opportunity to water this down, and again he didn't.

Agree with your comment re Chinese money though.

Agree Feb data will be a better gauge - will have c13k machines for full month and BTC price has picked up a bit too so i'm hoping for c£2.5m rev (may be slightly less as a shorter month).

I do think Jan 20th update could have provided a bit more info in particular an estimated profit for year figure. Instead it looks like we will have to wait until April for this.
We know H1 rev was £2.93m and net profit was 0.94m. Q3 generated gross profit of £2.65m (based on 73% margin) and Q4 £1.38m (based on 52% margin) so that's c£4m gross profit for H2 alone. Admin for H1 was only £630k so even assuming £1m for H2 that's £3m profit and £4m for whole of 2019.

Then Jan and Feb 2020 could generate over £4m rev for just 2 months making the 2019 numbers look ridiculously low.

However, until these numbers and published and things like the cash position is known it appears there is little forward momentum.
Additionally, strategy of ARB post halving must be holding us back.
Personally, if cash position is good a mid year special dividend might be the best way forward. This would reward shareholders and not lock ARB into ongoing dividends going forward to allow them flexibility.

At these prices i will continue to top up on dips. As i write BTC price is picking up a little too - hopefully back up above $10,000 ASAP.

sorry loss for H2 will be c£1m so £2m for whole of 2019. Makes breakeven almost impossible in 2020, hopefully 2021. Cash is definitely required

last few RNSs have been good and it's nice to see us back in the 2p area, however, still concerned that a placing is required. Cash at 30/6 was £1.5m and at 31/12 down to £600k so a £900k deduction.
As ITX is still loss making and i think expect loss for 2019 to be c£1m then we need revenues to increase massively to hit break even.
Even a doubling of revenues in 2020 will probably not be enough to get to us breakeven so i can see cash being required ASAP.

Still think CRODA could either part of wholly purchase ITX though so still much medium term upside

agree NPX002 will be the short term mover and IMHO there was only positives in the podcast (not sure how you can interpret it differently).

Dan said negotiations have thus far gone well and both companies have shared data. He also reiterated the Q1 date - he could easily have watered this one down merely by stating negotiations are complex and it is difficult to put a time limit on them. He didn't.
It is less than 6 weeks until the end of March so i'm encouraged.
Interesting re the large £60k purchase earlier - shame about the late sales though

NU THING shave & shower sorbet. Vegan friendly. Interesting. Wonder what the other 8 SKUs are - think IDP mentioned it was 3 lots of 3

if a fundraise is required and AIM is quite 'leaky' maybe a few brokers/large clients have been contacted.

Still a great company but will need money to take it to FDA approval and to expand salesforce etc

Popped into Manchester yesterday so nipped into the Boots at Piccadilly Station. Although a reasonable size its focus is on sandwiches/snacks and pharmacy with only a basic selection of hair/skincare products.

I have only ever seen a few self tanners stocked and never ST. Yesterday it was pleasing to see no less than 8 separate ST SKUs on a middle shelf including Wonder Serum and both new Express products.
This IMHO is very encouraging

has the new products featured online too which is good - sometimes there have been delays with UK deals feeding across the Irish Sea, but not now which is good.

Interestingly now Ireland has 27 ST products available whilst UK has 22.

For Roots, Boots UK now has 9 products (and is 3 for 2 at the moment) with the introduction of an additional conditioner, whereas Ireland only has 2 products in total. As it's a 3 stage process (spray, shampoo and conditioner) hopefully this can be rectified soon

https://www.boots.ie/sitesearch?searchTerm=skinny%20tan

so RNS for H1 results will be next Tuesday, 25th. Assuming we don't get a RNS prior to this (as we did with AGM update) then next Tuesday will be a critical update as we approach the peak tanning season.

Things that will or could be announced are :
1. H1 2020 profit. Even a low profit (includes £400k of new category costs) will be great as H1 2019 IDP lost £422k.
2. New category - we know it's called NU Thing and is related to hair removal. However, is this an alternative to Veet or also includes shaving and moisturising too, is it unisex or just for women etc.
3. News on ST progress - we know we have new products for 2020 and also an expansion in Boots and Tesco etc
4. Other product progress - in particular whether Prolong has received regulatory approval in Far East. We have orders for c6,500 units (worth c£500k) so clearly these won't be delivered until regulatory approval is provided
5. Other info to show IDPs progress e.g cash position - as a small company cash is king. We have been told it's ok, but numbers talk

A positive RNS(s) should de-risk the YE £2m profit target and make IDP look very undervalued

ST is already in 1,305 stores (out of c 2,250 i think).

Popped into my local Boots today, a very small store in a small town that makes most of its money on the pharmacy side.
It has a small collection of sun tan lotions and 1 shelf of self tanners (ST Tropez and own brand etc).
it was pleasing to see 2 Skinny Tans amongst the range now - including the wonder serum (not the new express one).

This is probably as small a store as Boots has so would indicate that ST has been rolled out into a larger number of stores.
Guessing small number of SKUs etc but initial order could be decent and shows relationship with Boots going well.

also a new C+L one, presumably for US market - UK should be coming soon too

https://www.charlesandlee.co/password

rhinocloud gross profit margin was quoted as 78% and as has been mentioned GB expects revenues to exceed Labskin by a ratio of 2 to 1.
It will be massive, but it will take a little time.

who knows why and when Directors buy - i've never met one who is not positive about their company - but clearly not all AIM companies are successful. Director who bought at 29p has majority of his shares at 13p (when current share price was c20p) so he was never going to lose money. Although i do agree with you it is a massively positive sign

Just a point - raise in July 2019 was at 18p - not one Director participated in this. If Directors know what is going on - and phase 3 results were nailed on - why not fill your boots at that time?? As i said who knows why and when directors buy

yes, another piece in the jigsaw and all other work progressing well.

Also mentioned no need to raise money anytime soon - can't say that if a placing is imminent.

Next month or so should be interesting. LR seemed reasonably upbeat, for him