Member Info for shandypants2

Year End:
($'000) 2018A 2019E (new) 2019E (old) 2020E (new) 2020E (old)E 2021EE
REVENUE 5,994 6,807 6,671 8,479 7,452 9,783
ADJ. EBITDA (8) 294 271 449 469 921
ADJ. PBT (145) (6) 91 169 319 641
ADJ. EPS (p) (0.09) (0.00) 0.03 0.05 0.11 0.20
NET CASH/(DEBT) (435) (169) (471) (435) (561) (340)
EV/EBITDA (x) NEG 12.3 8.7 4.1
PER (x) NEG NEG 22.7 6.0

Allenby profit/loss table - not formatted so a bit difficult to read.
2019 rev $6.8m, 2020 now $8.5m and 2021 $9.8m

So growth this year expected to be 20% and for 2021 15% with 2019 representing a 14% increase.
Double digit growth is not reflected in the share price - but we all know that!!!

agree Splatt - not only was ARB at c10p but company is in a lot better position today than it was 6 to 9 months ago. Loads more machines and higher profit margin due to more efficient mining.
ARB could conservatively make £5m PBT this year so £20m market cap is crazy

New product category - getting interesting.

IDP has a new trademark - NUTHING.

can't open - can you copy and paste the text. Assume it's similar to article below - P/E only 10 - FTSE average is c15 and competitor PZ Cussons is c30 so much upside.

although 7p is a little low (IDP recently did the same with a price of £1.20 , when current price is 74p) it does mean that the shares need to be 9p or 10p minimum to make it worth their while to cash in.

So they must think (as we all do) that 7p is a low price for this share and we should be some way north of it in the not too distant future

there are c80m warrants outstanding, most of which are at 2p exercise price so c25% above today's price.
Warrants are not an issue for SKIN

Moni - wasn't meant to be patronising i am generally worried for your health.

Have watched both videos and it is exciting, however, as previously said Cathal is not stupid he's clearly exploiting the current publicity around viruses in the hope that the 49% we own can be monetised.
What i particularly liked about the interview was his quote that we will be profitable in a few months. After your comments re lack of profit surely this is good news

Northland Capital appear to be Star's broker. I can see a 3.7p target price but am struggling to find any detail analysis.
Can anyone point me in the right direct.

Agree with PR comment - has been an issue for a few years. Get on Vox and Proactive too

Thanks in advance

really positive update - average of the 247 bitcoins is c$8,250 each (might be up or down slightly based on $ to £ exchange rate).

So £1.63 in Jan - Feb will have more machines as these were getting installed throughout Jan and about 50% weren't in place at beginning of month and BTC price is well over £9k - and hopefully will continue its steady climb.

If Feb can do say £2.5m then that makes the current valuation look very light.

i'm not spreading negativity i'm pointing out a fact. Similarly whilst i like GB he has clearly a glass half full man so i reserve judgement on some of his statements.
No one knows if we will hit £4m rev (although i'm more concerned that SKIN will be profitable in 2020) it's an estimate so you comment is ridiculous.
For the record i think SKIN will show great progress in 2020 but will not hit £4m but will go into 2021 with a really strong order book as some of the hoped for contracts will be deferred. Similarly some fo these new arrangements will take time to get off the ground.
Personally if they make a profit and show say 200% growth to £3m i will be happy with that - even if that is below their own targets.
Come back to me this time next year if i'm wrong - and i hope i am!!!
Are sharebag and James2k66 the same person???

https://app.stockopedia.com/content/innovaderma-a-tale-of-jekyll-and-hyde-but-who-is-winning-now-554131?order=createdAt&sort=desc&mode=threaded

You need to be a member to read the full article. No real surprises - just summarises the bumpy rise over last few years.
Conclusion is below..

So how should we value IDP?

It’s difficult to put a value on IDP, it has struggled recently, but I believe that they have now turned the corner with the departure of Hari Chaudry and Kieran Callan at the helm. So, what is a fair p/e ratio? 10 x would be conservative, but put us at 103p this would be around a 40% uplift from the current price. The average p/e on the FTSE is around 17x this would put us at 175p, which is a more than doubling of the current price. It is worth remembering that the new category is not included in the forecasts although the launch costs are. So, there is a significant scope for the forecasts to be updated over the coming months.

Another way to value the company could be to look at previous transactions in the sector. The last big buy of a tanning brand was ST Tropez by PZ Cussons, incidentally they are trading at a p/e of over 30x. Although this was 10 years ago. It paid £62.5 million for ST Tropez when it had turnover of £20.7 million. Skinny Tan turnover is just over half of that at the moment. So that would value Skinny Tan at around £30 million, or around £2 a share. This doesn’t include any value for any of the other brands.

Conclusion

Whichever way you look at it IDP looks extremely undervalued and with a lot of news flow expected in the coming weeks and months it hopefully won’t be too long before investors see the potential here and the price rises to a more realistic level. I definitely think it's Dr Jekyll's turn to play.

1/2 year results now on 25th Feb plus new category to be announced should make the next few weeks quite interesting.

It should also provide more solid foundations for IDP to grow.

In Jan we've seen ST offering increasing and Boots improved signage in advance of peak tanning. As ST is over 80% of IDP rev it is clearly important that it keeps progressing and it appears it is.
H1 results will hopefully show a small profit and solid cash numbers.
The new product could be transformational so let's hope it is well received. IDP need to reduce reliance on ST so a non seasonal product is clearly a good addition.
The last 4 or 5 RNSs since last July have all been positive and shown progress yet share price has yet to reflect this.

good update - 2019 numbers met and Lokies appears to now be taking off, plus progress on all main products.

This share is very unloved but agree with the £6m valuation (50% uplift) as a realistic current level and hopefully push on from there

Moni - this article is over 18 months old so it sort of answers your question. The combined company will not be developing it's own drugs - this is a high risk strategy that clearly hasn't worked for HVO previously hence the massive cash burn.
You constantly criticise the HVO CEO and now seem to want him to carry on with a high risk strategy that has already failed once, and quite spectacularly.
The lab and service model with the add on of being a specialist database provider is the way forward.
For your own sanity you need to stop posting so much - particularly over the weekend - both here and on ADVFN.

James - whenever someone voices any concerns re SKIN your only response is to tell them to sell out and move on.

Not only is it now getting a bit repetitive it is clearly not the way to promote discussion. Today's RNS is good as have the last few BUT as they are predominantly new agreements there is no ££ (and i know nor can there be). So we are now 1/12 way through the year - what progress has been made? The pipeline order book must be well over £10m fro GB to state £4m rev for year. Have any of these new contracts landed?
No one knows.
Similarly the £1m rev for 2019 included £178k for Rhino in the period that SKIN didn't own the company. So is real rev c£800k.
Similarly what is cash position - GB stated after placing in Dec we already had £477k BUT this was position at 30/9/19 not as of Dec.
Market is clearly waiting for some concrete figures before the next step up - don't have a pop at people for pointing out a few things that are causing some concern. It doesn't mean we don't support GB and SKIN and want them to do well

Qwerty - I see what you are saying but Q4 showed that even with a low (ish) BTC price gross margins were still good (53%) so ARB will definitely be making a reasonable profit.
No profit was mentioned on YE trading statement but based on c£1m at H1 and 73% Q3 margin and 53% Q4 margin it could be c£3m for year - which makes £20m current market cap very small.
With a higher BTC price and more than double the number of machines it's been suggested Q1 2020 rev could be $10m alone. That would equate to a quarterly net profit of similar to whole of 2019.
So agree £1 is a dream but say 20p per share is not unreasonable in the short term

ARB price linked to BTC? BTC steady overnight - ARB down 5%. Unbelievable

I have to agree with everything you say Amber, and I am also a believer in the product.

Last placing at 3p (just after some real positivity with link up with Boots) was a 13% discount so with difficult market conditions and a more difficult 'sell' there is no way the next placing will be anywhere near a premium. I think Modern Waters placing last week was at a 60% discount (just as an example).

In addition to some UK specific marketing I think another option is overseas distribution deals. Clearly CPT would receive less money per unit but orders would be in the thousands and there would be no retail or marketing costs.
If CPT could sell to distributors at say £100 a unit that's still a decent gross profit margin (hopefully 40 to 50%) with no further costs.

As a small company CPT could focus on UK and let other companies distribute overseas

US commercialisation deal will definitely be transformation for STX and could drop any time in next few months.
In Vox markets interview CFO comes across as very dry yet even he can't hide his excitement. Also interesting that European sales are only in Germany and UK at present and should expand to rest of EU later this year.

From Hardman's research note 28/1/2020

2020 will be the transitional year for STX, as it delivers on its commercialisation
strategy. Most of the news flow will be regarding a partnership(s) deal for
commercialisation of Accrufer in the US, and on Norgine’s progress with pricing and
reimbursement applications for Feraccru in additional European countries.

nice write up, but it's a paid for ad. Surely OPTI need some independent endoresements