Member Info for shakeypremis

Waha don't own SDX, they own ~20%. They apparently do have a lot of say but I doubt that extends to selling the entire company for sod all. If they'd wanted out they could sell out slowly at higher prices rather than hold the price low for a lowball bid.

They don't need money. They'll use the Moroccan debt facility first before diluting. They haven't drawn any of that so far. It can only be used in Morocco however.

That company, City Financial went in to administration this year too. On 21st March.

https://www.cityfinancial.co.uk/

Not sure if the shares they held were their own or held on behalf of a client in a nominee account.

Looks like another large fund/institution has bought shares here;

http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?tab=5&vw=own&SecurityToken=0P000182NM%5D3%5D0%5DE0WWE%24%24ALL&Id=0P000182NM&ClientFund=0&CurrencyId=BAS

City Financial Investment Company hold 3.3% of the company.

This wasn't on the latest significant shareholders list from SDX but that could be because it was slightly too small. That list was from the end of April. However it wasn't on the list as of the end of January 2019 either. That means it's been built up since the start of this year.

List as of April 30th

https://www.sdxenergy.com/investors/significant-shareholders/

List as of January 21st 2019

https://web.archive.org/web/20190301102610/http://www.sdxenergy.com/investors/aim-rule-26-information.aspx

I don't know where these sells are coming from. The big holders and even the lesser significant shareholders haven't been selling. At least they haven't been reporting if they have. Are PI's just dumping in fear as control of this company is consolidated in to fewer and fewer hands?

We recently got the most recent share register that was accurate to end of May. It indicated there was no major selling, certainly not by the two largest holders and indeed there was some large buying.

https://www.sdxenergy.com/investors/significant-shareholders/

So if there is selling, it isn't being reported.

Chrisdp86, they are struggling to offload gas in Morocco. Offloading gas in Egypt won't be a problem.

Entitlement production after working interest and government takes will be about 125 barrels per day. At $50/barrel that should increase company net revenue by over $2m pet year.

He's also leaving Waha completely too. Hopefully the new guy is supportive of SDX.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thenational.ae/business/markets/waha-capital-reshuffles-top-management-as-it-pursues-growth-1.873045

Doesn't make a whole lot of sense that if an offer comes for the entirety of SDX (and not just their Moroccan arm - the article is unclear if Waha want to sell the whole of SDX or just sell of SDX Morocco) at a low price given the recent director buys and Waha not selling earlier in the year. They'd have all known earlier in the year if they wanted to jump ship and could have sold at a higher price. Either it's a sale for the whole of SDX for a decent mark up to current prices (doesn't mean they're going to get even 60p or anything of course) or they are selling off the Moroccan assets only which might make sense given the apparent lack of demand there, despite it currently being a nice little earner.

Any offer would have to be agreed to by more than just Waha too, they hold just under 20% of SDX and can't vote through a takeover of the company by themselves. Another 46% of the vote is going to be required from other shareholders.

I think Furey is saying that Waha (MEA Energy/SDX SPV Ltd), SDX's top shareholder want to sell SDX energy. What are you saying?

A very interesting title to the article;

"SDX Energy and sound energy for sale: Rothschild's double whammy."

It's behind a paywall however.

Bulls Beware: The 2020 Oil Market Is Quickly Turning Ugly https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-09/bulls-beware-the-2020-oil-market-is-quickly-turning-ugly

I'm sure sdx is getting penalised along with other oilers for this outlook. Of course sdx is going to become a majority gas producer at fixed prices going forward but the market isn't looking forward to that when it comes to sdx. Perhaps rightly so given the continued shenanigans.

Looks like we are returning to normality here, which is a state of abject apathy. Zero shares traded today in over an hour's trading. The free float must be getting quite small here.

There'll be no dividends or buybacks here for some years yet anyway. Based on my knowledge of Waha, they don't seem like the sort that would go for buybacks. They'd prefer dividends. They are an investment company listed on the Dubai stock exchange and look to show a return via dividends (as well as capital growth of their holdings) to shareholders every year.

I never said I thought it wouldn't go lower. The only hats I offered to eat would be if my conspiracy theory regarding Waha etc turns out to be completely baseless.

The value hasn't changed however, only the price. I wonder where the price might be if the delist hadn't happened. A LOT of shares were sold as a result of that. Some shares might still be being sold after conversion to AIM by people who weren't paying attention. It's times like these someone like Rick Rule would be greedily purchasing more shares viewing the current price as an absolute gift.

All the best to you, but no one should be selling here in my opinion. This is dirt cheap.

If these guys were going to place to fund E&P they'd have done so already and not pushed back the SD exploration program. They seem intent on funding organic growth from cashflow, which I for one am completely fine with.

The only time they'd place is if they want to acquire something. Doesn't seem like a viable option now with the rock bottom share price. They'd dilute the hell out of everyone - Waha included - if they did that. Doesn't seem at all likely that the top two shareholders would allow it.

There's certainly a reason to do this given in the future once SD comes online and a few extra wells get drilled and connected up SDX will be become highly cash generative. Morocco sales going up to something reasonable line 9mmcf/d will add to that. Even after further exploration worth in SD and Morocco, if acquisitions aren't made there will be a lot of cash sitting on the balance sheet so dividends would be an obvious thing to do. When you have 40 million plus shares (with possibly more in the future if Waha buy more) I'm sure you'd love a dividend. This does fit well with Waha's strategy as far as I can tell.

"The shares have dropped back more than 25% in recent weeks and, according to Peel Hunt, the company could see fresh impetus via merger and acquisitions - either as an acquirer or potentially a target."

“Given the low valuation, SDX may also be seen as a takeover target for larger operators in the North Africa region, eg, SOCO, Apache or TransGlobe."

I'd be worried about a low-ball takeover myself if the top two plus board didn't own 40%+ of this company outright. If any takeover offer is to be accepted then they'll have to vote in favour of it for it to go through. Can you really see them taking 30p a share? Even 50p. Anything they are happy to sell for will likely please PIs too. Could obviously be wrong and they could indeed be sick of the sight of SDX by now and ready to throw in the towel, but I very much doubt they are.

38p. Jeez. From here that'd be an awesome return but for most that won't cut the mustard.