Member Info for SGbaby

Just did mine for 100k shares, did not expect to be able to do that but here we are.

Everyone else really bored/over it with the state of the world?

GLA

If they needed more political capital, they could wait until reserves run out and then start the process.

Yes that doesn't make sense logically, but politics rarely does.

They have to mine and do it soon.

I mean, if we had the same reserves in the UK I'd be saying mine it here to get our bills down too!

Looks like a total of 6 posts deleted today. You can see the total number of posts and then count how many there actually are.

Someone's working hard to strip this BB of useful conversation.

What a journey we and bangladesh have been on over the last 18 months.

Civil uprising ultimately resulting in the death penalty issued against the ex PM Hassina. The interim governement hugely overstaying their welcome leading to all sort of concerns about the next steps. Concerns about which way the military is going to go. Huge courption discovered. Elections finally announced and went through without significant issues from either the parties, the electorate or the military (or the interim government).

It's truly remarkable what's happening in Bangladesh considering where they were 2 years ago, and I really hope this is the start of a upward trajectory for Bangladesh and from GCM.

GLA

The other great thing here is Phulbari has now been explicitly mentioned in the press and with a totally positive association (4 lane highway).

I'll be honest, this election campaign is being run amazingly in so far as getting the people on board with what needs to happen to move the country forward.

In an ideal world, the entire point of a government is do things at scale that's in the best interest of the people, energy security is right at the top of the list of basic things to get right. And the BNP seem to really have this in the bag. (I'd put big money on China having planned all of this out and everything already a done deal, including funding etc. The cats got to be out of the bag now, can't wait for tomorrow)

Excellent, thanks all.

Thats what I thought and what I hoped. If it had been explicitly said and we were still at this sp, I'd be baffled. More dots connected this weekend, loving the highway news as well. Cheers

Hey Searcher - happy Saturday.

We don't have any explicit links between Phulbari and Teesta do we? I know there are a tonne of dots we are joining up, that make perfect sense, just double checking it's not being explicitly said YET.

Picked up another circa 25k shares just now at 9.4p

Is the 4p premium over 6p on Monday value? Given the news we've had this week, buying now at 10p is a better risk based investment than 6p last Thursday.

GLA, I'll see you on the moon

Its probably too early to tell, there are many ways to slice this legally. GCM could in theory retain 100% of the licence and still give 75% of revenue away. That prevents stalemate if the 3 main partners have a dispute. I think it also depends on how bangladesh want the optics to look. They could even buy the licence from GCM and give GCM a free carry.

I think best case for us is some sort of JV with a 25/25/50 split (for example).

Worst case is Tang screwing us.

Other plausible outcome is hostile takeover at £150m m/c or something like that.

Either way, I'm now 100% convinced Bangladesh is going to mine Phulbari and my investment here is me putting my money where my mouth is.

Why do you think this results in a take over?

There's a chance GCM could be taken over, absolutely, but I don't think this news has any bearing on that. This is simply a way for bangladesh to monitise the assets, raise money, and deliver value for the country.

GCM wholly own the licence, there's no way around that, and the value of that licence determines everything else. Bangladesh creating a SOE doesn't really have anything to do with GCM or PC, it's just a structural way that Bangladesh can monitise the asset.

@doze

Listing of public companies is state owned enterprises, not directly GCM (which is a private company).

Practically this probably means the creation of a new company owned by the Bangladesh state, that will then have a carry on any exploration / mining / drilling.

How this might affect GCM, they would give this new SOE company 25%, Power China would take 50%, leaving GCM with 25%. Both GCM and the new SOE would have a free carry with all the work being carried out by PC. Finger in the air figures to make the point.

It's huge news IMO because this is a tried a tested approach that is very commonly adopted by states.

My point was that with the SOE going publicly listed, they will have share holders they are responsible to, so they cannot sit of the only coal field ready to go - because they have a duty to create shareholder value.

Huge find, thanks for sharing digit!

Open pit being mentioned is huge, but let's not gloss over SOE listing plans. Listed companies cannot just sit on resources and not do anything about it, that's not in shareholder interest. I think that's huge news and structurely material for GCM.

Wow. How are we at 7p.

What's full value for you GP? 180p retires me very comfortably. 130p and I'm thinking about it.

It's going to be one hell of a ride!

Is this actually going to happen now Searcher?

I can't quite believe this mate. It's playing out as politics 101.

Normalise the idea publicly (coal development - been going on for a few weeks now, even as far back as those seeding videos)

Widen the frame (regional coal, not “Phulbari” - very explicitly and beyond doubt yesterday)

Create cross-party comfort (opposition seems to accept it too from what snips I've seen the last few days)

Post election, announce explicitly under a different name as implementation, not concept approval, as now electing the BNP is electing a pro coal own government - they do not need further hearts and minds post election.

The BNP also originally approved the mine, it's pushing against an open door.

Because we exist in such a rational market, should we expect a red Monday? Lol

I agree GP.

They have to make a choice and they have imo already made it, it's all politics now. PC have shown their hand in a big way with the mega hospital, Teesta is all but starting and the logical, but politically complex, next step is to sort out bara and to start Phulbari.

I also fully expect 'one box cut' and the mine to be renamed, both to save face for the failure of bara to extract quantity and affordable coal, and to minimise internal opposition of Phulbari.

Are we going to get another isa top up at these prices, that's the only thing on my mind now 😂

Personally I think if 28p is on the table it's because we are on the run up to a much higher number.

I'm starting to think that we don't get a spike until someone comes out and says open pit in the north, or words to that effect that make it impossible to ignore GCM.

Own coal hasn't been enough to move us, so I think it needs to be a defacto green light before we move.

I'm still holding everything, but I'm starting to think it might not be an election boom even if (as expected) the BNP win.

Me too GP, picked up 85k shares first thing this morning!

They are allowed the sell the shares before they have been admitted to the market. So by the admission date the shares could have all be sold.

That sounds very rampy searcher - I expect that post to be removed lol

But in all seriousness, this is truly uncharted for the modern GCM. The next few weeks in the build up to the election are going to be exciting that's for sure.

As yet another long term holder my advice to any new holders is to not look at the micro movements, they will shake it hard to get the shares as this narrative becomes clearer.

Good luck all

Searcher this is crazy. Great find. 330k followers, likely a bot army, but it really is a shifting tide we are seeing imo.