Member Info for scotpak

Hopefully articles like this will give the govt the required push to get the job done sooner rather than later.

Agree its not a good article if the govt has not been in communication for over 60 days.

There has been a decent bounce in the lithium price which could explain move.

They could just raise Nigerian USD sovereign bonds and use the proceeds to pay off the energy companies (incl SAVE). It is in their interest to do this sooner rather than later given how well Nigerian USD bonds are currently trading. Nigeria 7.143% 2031 bond currently trading at 7.3% yield (was at 12% in Apr). Super cheap financing for a B3/B- rated sovereign issuer based in Africa.

Likely meaningless, but my HL bid price has adjusted from 7.2p to 8.2p.

Yep, no bad news is good news as said below. Could be all very different in a good way in 6 weeks time, fingers crossed.

Agreed with what was stated regarding the coffee morning, but mgmt did emphasise that this was only an example of how the receivable payments may play out. Regardless, good to have some positive momentum here, and article does suggest a bond issue and payment over the following month. Fingers crossed for all!

$2.6bn bond issue is a sizeable amount but definitely do-able for the govt of nigeria. If you use the USD 2031 Nigeria govt bond as a gauge, its is currently trading at a yield of around 7.9%. (well below the 12% it was at around April). Thus attractive financing rates on the offer by the bond market.

Https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/africa/2025-08-18-nigeria-approves-26bn-electricity-sector-debt-refinancing-plan/#google_vignette

Hopefully this includes us? Article specifically mentions power generation companies.

Nigeria has rebased GDP, leading to a 30% technical expansion to $243 billion from $188 billion. The economy is diversified, but the services sector still dominates (>50%), followed by agriculture (>20%), while the oil & gas share is declining (6%). Hydrocarbons remain key to exports, though, standing at about 90%. June 2025 oil production of 1.5m bpd is at the highest level since April 2020. The overall impact of the rebasing is that debt to GDP declines from 52% to 39%, while consolidated revenues fall to 11% from 14%.

Hopefully helps put Nigeria in a better position to address those receivables.

On my HL account they are at 7.2p. Wouldnt worry too much. If they resolve auditing issue and complete accugas refi (both imminent), we should have decent upside momentum to at least get back to double figures. Then upside is predicated on cashflow generarion, acquisitions and chad compensation.

For what its worth, Ive sold my entire holding for around 6.7p today. I'm not willing to take the risk of Viaro pulling out. I'd rather not wait for several months to get 7.4p, and get a few extra k. Would rather utilise my funds elsewhere now.

I havent lost too much as I think my average price was in the 8-9p range and avoided the scenario of this company folding which seemed to be very, very high had they not managed to secure this bid (especially given what they said in the last RNS).

Anyways, good luck to all.

Wow, they have fully refinanced the Accugas facility?? That is very positive news as it removes a very sizeable ($215m) near term (dec 25) debt maturity. Why have they not RNS'd this news???

Moho might be right here. SAVE's leverage (net debt/EBITDA) is not high, they are generating decent free CF (now that Naira has stabilised) and they have some cash. HOWEVER, in their Q1 update report they stated that $215m of their accugas $ facility remained outstanding and this has a maturity date of Dec 2025 which is not very far at all. In the update report they seemed confident of refinancing this last chunk of Accugas through more Naira-denominated debt. A few weeks later, when Andrew spoke at the investor's coffee morning, he stated that they might not need to refinance this facility with local debt as they could just pay it off in full through receivable payments. So SAVE could be in a position where they are trying to convince the Auditor's they can meet their short-term debt obligations namely their accugas facility due Dec 2025.

Ive seen companies in much, much worse predicaments come through situations like this and SAVE at least on a relative basis seems in a decent position.

In the press release Deltic are basically saying that they have investigated various funding options both equity and debt and they dont seem to be viable at this stage. They also mention a £1.3m cost overrun which is now due to SHELL. Funny how they have changed their tune from their previous press release. So looks like we dont really have another option but to accept the 7.46p bid. Our only hope remains that a "COMPETING BID" arises.

Auditing delay could be for a whole host of reasons so doesn't make sense to speculate. I think the suspension is a good thing. We can all chill and enjoy our hols. No need to jump on the forum to moan and vent every week. And then hopefully when we re-list in late August, we might be closer to some good news on receivables, acqns, Chad etc

Seems to have sparked a decent amount of BUYS this morning.

I'm sure we all share your frustrations. Maybe we should focus on summer hols and hopefully post Aug, we start getting some material positive newsflow. Fingers crossed for everyone.

Its just a conservative estimate working off the potential NPV of the selena project.

Still waiting on big news, but given all our current and potential CF linked to oil, nice to see Brent move nicely from below $60 to current price of $70 in just over a month.

How do you arrive at the $120m?