Member Info for scotpak

We dont need the receivables to grow. We need the receivables to come down so they can generate cash allowing debt to be paid.

Given our sizeable oil production (and to higher oil production thru acqn), good to see Brent move from around $68.5 to the current level of $74.7. This represents a 9% move, and obviously not captured in the share price.

Bought 133k more at 7.5p. Bought more even though I said I wouldnt!!

Nah David , I reckon the electronic communication strategy is simply a more efficient way to deliver all the good news that is due over the next few months. But u can stick to your 2nd hand stamp to email switch theory driven by company being in dire straits. 😂

Small for the chairman of the board!! :)

£90k at 9.8p. Very small trade but at least given the price level and the fact its the Chairman is of some relevance.

The positive here is that the Nigerian govt is on an improving trend ever since recent elections. Fiscal and current account deficits have improved as has the availability of the USD. Foreign inflow have also picked up. The main problem is that the new govt in order to kickstart this improvement were forced to very aggressively re-price the local FX to bring it in line with fair value. This has caused the swelling of the receivables (due to the true up mechanism in the gas contracts) rather than recent deterioration in the govt's credit worthiness.

Anyway, my point here is hopefully this means we dont get a repeat of the issues which caused the previous incarnation of the company to fold.

From annual report 2023 page 46: Our customers in Nigeria include Calabar Generation CompanyLimited, Lafarge Africa PLC, Ibom Power Company Limited, FirstIndependent Power Limited, Central Horizon Gas Company Limited,Notore Chemical Industries PLC, Shell Nigeria Gas Limited and ShellPetroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited.

SAVE's gas customer are a very concentrated list of entities. 4 to 5 very big players. I posted their names a few days back after looking them up in the last annual report. The reason I said they were big international companies or Private equity owned, is because I looked up the ultimate owner of each separate company. Ive only done this once so perhaps rushed into making some conclusions. Others are welcome to do the same and verify.

Just go back a page and look at where the "Receivables" thread started. But basically if your a nigerian customer, your gas contract with SAVE contains a "true up" mechanism, which compensates SAVE for any depreciation in the NAIRA vs the USD. Given the currency has gone from 400 to 1500 (june 23 to present), in theory your bills have gone up almost 4x due to the FX. The customers are still on the hook for these bills and SAVE have not been fully paid, but you will find these balances in the balance sheet as "Receivables". My view is that these customer are big sizeable companies owned by global players and / or private equity, thus they will ultimately play, but SAVE need to look into a payment plan or other creative methods to ensure these start to get paid down. I think AK mentioned payment plans on the webcall.

Good stuff Zengas. FIngers crossed for all the holders.

Some Nigeria trip notes (19 Mar) courtesy of BAML: We had two days of meetings in Nigeria (policymakers in Abuja and private sector in Lagos) and most were positive. Corporates no longer complain about the operating environment and see 2025 as a better year than 2024. The reforms to FX and the fuel subsidy removal remain key and underpin the current macro stability. The oil sector is rebounding with an increase in production since 2023 and the start of the Dangote refinery last year.

GDP growth is now at a higher level (3% vs 2% pre-pandemic) thanks to positive contribution of oil sector growth and resilient services sector. In 2024 real GDP growth reached 3.4%. The level of growth is higher driven by financial services, telecoms, and a revamped oil sector. We estimate that growth is likely to remain around 3.2% in 2025 supported by improving oil production.

Oil revenues could increase once the fuel subsidy is removed, but state oil firm NNPC has continued to deduct amounts owed by FGN (the Federal Government). We understand the amounts owed have declined to under N2 trillion in 2025, from N8 trillion in 2024. The balances could be cleared by mid-year, providing upside to oil revenues.

There is scope to increase oil and gas production further by reducing theft and exploration investment by both local oil companies and IOCs. The oil sector is supportive of incentives for exploration activity and upstream production in Presidential Executive Orders (fiscal incentives) and the Petroleum Investment Act. The potential increase could be up to 200k bpd, which could take total crude production to 1.7million bpd over the next two years. Not all stake sales by international oil companies in onshore projects have led to divestment out of Nigeria. Some have led to further investment in offshore projects and gas projects.

Been looking at SAVE's key customers: FROM ANNAUL REPORT: New and extended GSAs during 2023, including a new GSA with Shell Nigeria Gas Limited and contract extensions with Central Horizon Gas Company Limited, First Independent Power Limited, Notore Chemical Industries PLC and Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited for a total of up to 101 MMscfpd.

Customer concentration is high, but they all appear to be solid companies. You have to do a bit of digging as some are owned by larger global players and some owned by private equity.

We need a proper conference calls with proper Q&As to address these concerns which should not be a problem now that we are re-listed. That way we dont have to second guess AK's motivations behind his answers. Anyway lets hope these get implemented. I will email IR, others do as well please.

Given all the recent chatter about and associated worries about receivables, was having a think about why the balances have grown so large and why AK suggested on the call that they were looking at payment plans to speed up payments. If you look at the timing of growth on these receivables they are all linked to the HUGE depreciation of the NAIRA. As the gas contracts contained a "true up" mechanism which compensated SAVE for FX losses vs the USD, this meant these Nigerian gas customers who generate their earnings in local currency (naira) were suddenly liable for HUGE increases in their gas payments. Given that the FX has now stabilised, payment issues should not be a problem going forward. But addressing these current large balances will likely take time. Given that the customers on the other sides are mostly nigerian govt or govt-related entities, I do feel the payments will be honoured especially given the recent improvements in Nigerian govt's fiscal situation, improvement in foreign inflows and great liquidity in FX.

Hopefully we get more info on this in coming weeks.

That statement doesnt make sense. If a decent amount of buyers appear , then they should in theory be able to absorb TT's remaining holding. 34m at 8-10p is only around £2.7-3m in market value terms. Obviously with low liquidity (daily traded volume around 3-4m shares per day) market having trouble absorbing these SELLs as the buyers are not really there. We need some material newsflow to bring in new buyers or for TT to finish offloading their position. Im waiting for some news on Accugas refi, or some newsflow on addressing large receivables balance. Obviously lots of other triggers but perhaps those are a bit further away.

Lots of upset people here which is understandable. Just looking at the traded volume over the last few days, Im pretty sure TT int'l are still in the process of clearing out their position (reminder: it was 34m around 5th of Mar). Every time the stock ticks up, there are several lots of 100k, 115k traded which Im assumed are SELLs at regular intervals. Hopefully in a week or so this seller would have fully exited.

Bought some more at 8.19. I think that's my limit now. Fingers crossed I get rewarded for a bit of bravery. Good luck everyone.

TT international said they had 34m shares left to sell on the 5th of March. Since then the average daily volume of shares traded has only been around 3.4m per day. Thus it could still take a few weeks for them to clear their whole position. They likely have a broker who is trying to sell 1-2m per day which will keep the pressure on the share price. Unless of course mgmt step up and do a direct transaction with TT ( I know unlikely).

On the other savannah board, Rockyride is venting and I get it, its been a sh*tshow over the last few years. However, I really do think the $30m share placement was done in order to get new strategic investors involved who will support the share base over the long term. I really dont think it was done in order to raise emergency liquidity in order to pay short term bills. Yes, the receivables balance is large, but the primary creditor on the other side is the nigerian govt who are on a positive trajectory in term of govt reforms, fiscal deficit, USD reserves etc etc. Thus ultimately they will pay. I also want to emphasize how difficult it is to raise a $200m acquisition facility in Africa of all places. It is almost impossible. For the banks to grant such a facility, they would have been all over Savannah's financial statements, and analysed Cashflow and liquidity in great detail. If there was even a minor liquidity/ Cashflow issue, the bank would have walked away.