Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
In the short term, yes, Naira appreciation would allow FX losses to be clawed back. However in the long term, ideally post the refi of the accugas facility to local currency, Naira depreciation wouldnt be a bad thing. As in you would be using USD revenue to pay down Naira debt which is depreciating (vs the USD) and thus getting smaller.
Im also hoping that with recent FX reforms and improved FX liquidity, SAVE wont be required to hold so much cash on hand in Naira.
We are all completely fed up but lets look at the positives. They still seem to be implying completion is still on the cards, they have revamped the website and have set up a new oil and gas holding company (which may become an operating company at a later date). Maybe we have some good news around the corner. Fingers crossed for all.
Whilst meaningless chat continues on this board, Tullow have put out a press release saying that they are to prepay $100m of their secured 10.25% bond on May the 15th. This is obviously a good signal for their current cash generation and liquidity.
This Chad article cites only a statement from the Chad govt not from the Paris court of arbitration itself. Also it only discusses the fact that Chad's pipeline accounts cannot be frozen. No mention of the more important issues of the nationalisation itself and the related theft of assets. As mentioned below, this could simply be Chad trying to put a spin on a meaningless aspect of this case. Like others, a frustrated long term holder here. Fingers crossed that all those boxes start to get ticked off this year.
People are starting to panic on this board. This was always a super high risk investment. Anyway, if you look at the recent STIFEL research report, they have a share price valuation of 125p. Selene represents 69p of that valuation whilst Pensacola is only 42p. Stifel have not yet reduced their Pensacola valuation given deal falling through is still not 100%. Similarly, Cannacord have a 110p valuation. They have Selene at 89p & Pensacola at 8p (they have reduced this from 65p). Anyway the point I am making is that Selene still makes up the majority of the share's valuation. (both above reports mentioned were released post the recent RNS)
Local currency Nigerian govt bonds trade at a yield of 19%, thus any debt facility we get will have a similar or higher rate. But the rate isnt so important. What is important is that an expensive USD facility is being replaced by a local currency facility. Given SAVE revenues are in USD or are linked to contract fixed in USD terms, this will be a BIG positive.
Gutted on delays like everyone else. Hopefully there is some progress in the background, hence the need to keep giving dates/ timelines. On a more positive note the NAIRA has now strengthened around 22% from its lows. Hopefully the debt facility refi isnt too far off.
BAML had an UNDERPERFORM rating on Tullow last year. Today they have done a double upgrade to BUY (underperformance > mkt perform> BUY). They have also upgraded their price target from 35p to 55p. As I also explained earlier, they are making the point that given bonds are trading close to par, the equity market isn't pricing in the much improved REFINANCE prospects Tullow now has.
There is a positive BAML note out this morning, and this is why the stock is up sharply. Target price of 55p.
They say CF has reached inflection point, and see strong debt paydown in next 1-2yrs. They also make a point that bonds are now trading close to par, thus there is now a strong disconnect between bonds and equity given that equity is not pricing in much improved REFINANCE prospects.
Thanks for Sharing RR.
Still awaiting soooo much news (Accugas refi, SS aqn completion, Niger production start, Chad legal challenge), but good to hear company is still alive and doing value adding moves like this. As is always the case, the longer we have without any news, the more worried and suspicious we get. So good on the company to provide some marginal relief.
Good luck to all.
Https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/ci/research-analysis/petronas-announces-exit-from-south-sudan-noc-evaluates-portfol.html
Old but worth a quick read on Petronas motives for exit
Maybe the minister wants to ask Petronas on reasons they sold and their thoughts on Savannah as an operator for his peace of mind before approving deal? Might not necessarily be to plead for Petronas to come back. Of course Im gonna be biased as I hold a large SAVE share position.
That article references an IMF staff report that was released as a Feb 24 report but contains the following paragraph:
The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on a lapse-of-time basis, following discussions that ended on October 27, 2023, with the officials of Nigeria on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on December 14, 2023.
Thus given the Naira has depreciated around 100% vs the USD since those dates (oct 27 & Dec 14), the 35% depreciation mentioned by that article is very out of date and in fact massively underestimates the amount of actual depreciation that took place.
Just google IMF and Nigeria and you can easily find the IMF staff report.
So many on this forum just spouting garbage. Today was a day when NVIDIA had the largest one day move mkt cap wise in history (still 10mins to US Close). Given the huge moves into tech/AI stocks we have seen over last few days, dont you think this has caused a massive rotation out of underperforming/unloved sectors such as oil? Zero value in just speculating stuff, like oooh I think big news is coming cause we are up or down 5%. How many times has this kind of speculation led to zero developments?? Yes , probably every single time. I have never contributed to this board before, but the sheer annoyance of the constant garbage I read here made me intervene. Lets discuss EBITDA, free CF, liquidity, project developments, potential acquisitions, farm-outs etc etc. Lets try to add value people.