Member Info for scotpak

On the REFI, only $25m of the original Accugas facility remains outstanding, which will be paid from cash. Thus no refi is needed. Outstanding amount was $189m at the end of Sep 25.

The prime motivation for the relationship agreement is to prevent the company being taken private? If NIPCO the largest SH who may eventually get to 26.5% agrees to not pursue a hostile takeover, are we not in a better place? Apologies if im missing something obvious.

Some more AI stuff:

Will the relationship agreement prevent a hostile takeover?

Yes, the relationship agreement specifically includes an undertaking from NIPCO not to pursue any hostile takeover of Savannah Energy.

This commitment is one of several governance protections intended to safeguard minority shareholders and ensure the company can operate independently of its largest shareholder.

Key Governance Protections in the Agreement:

Hostile Takeover Restriction: NIPCO has committed not to pursue a hostile takeover, although this is subject to certain standard exceptions.

Voting Support: NIPCO must exercise its voting rights in support of governance-related shareholder resolutions recommended by the Savannah Board.

No Board Representation: The agreement confirms that NIPCO has no right to a seat on Savannah’s Board of Directors, preserving the board's current composition and independence.

Orderly Market Obligations: Any future share disposals by NIPCO must be handled in an orderly fashion. For off-market trades, Savannah is granted a period to identify an alternative purchaser.

Duration: These protections remain in force for as long as NIPCO and its affiliates maintain an aggregate holding of at least 12.5% of Savannah’s issued share capital.

AI reasoning for change:

Savannah Energy altered the agreement primarily to preserve approximately £10.05 million in cash and to secure a robust Relationship Agreement with NIPCO that protects minority shareholders and ensures operational independence.

Reasons for the Revised Agreement

Cash Preservation: Terminating the off-market buyback agreement prevents the company from having to use its own cash reserves to purchase the shares. This preserves £10.05 million for general corporate purposes and enhances the company's financial flexibility.

Minority Shareholder Protections: The new Relationship Agreement is considered to be of "significant strategic value" and delivers "meaningful minority shareholder protections" that were a key focus for the Board's independent directors.

Operational Independence: The Relationship Agreement ensures important assurances regarding the company's continued operational and decision-making independence from its largest shareholder (NIPCO).

CEO Confidence Signal: The CEO, Andrew Knott, acquiring the remaining shares demonstrates "senior management's confidence in the Company's strategy and prospects" and aligns his interests further with those of other shareholders.

Strategic Shareholder: Welcoming NIPCO, a diversified Nigerian energy conglomerate with deep industry expertise, as a major shareholder is seen as beneficial to strengthening the balance sheet and supporting future growth.

Share price will rise when:

> SAVE confirm material cash receipts from Nigerian govt

> SAVE announces positive news on Chad arbitration

> SAVE gets independent confirmation that accounting controls have improved and accounts give a true and fair view

> SAVE makes material headway in generating free CF and reducing debt

All pretty much the same drivers.

Apologies forgot to add the coupon to the total return. so total return would be 40%+.

I do work in emerging market bonds although not an expert in Nigeria local bonds. But Nigeria local bond investors have done pretty well this year. For example you could have bought the NIGB 19.89% 2033 bond at the start of 2025 for 95. Those bonds are now trading at around 111 bid. So you have made 17% on the bond price. In terms of FX, Naira has strengthened 6% vs the USD since start of the year. Thus the total return for a USD based investor on this bond would be 23%.

In terms of total primary market issuance, Nigeria has issued $11.5bn (USD equiv) in Naira bond (FGN and T-bills).

So market is alot more healthy than your views imply. Happy to go and get any more specific local bond and Naira colour if people need.

Meanwhile in the real world Nigeria CDS (insurance contract on credit risk) trading at 317. Tightest level since 2019. This was at 800+ in April. If Nigeria are in such a poor financial state, why are their rating on positive outlook, why are CDS trading at multiyear tights, why are USD bond yields so low? We all know Nigeria has had a very tough time financially. But the key here is that they are on an improving and positive trend.

Then why are rating agencies doing this?

S&P Global's upgrade of Nigeria's credit rating shows Tinubu's reforms working – Edun https://share.google/yhQZg6TZTGPyZPyyj

Https://www.energyreforms.ng/power-sector-bond#features

Good basic info here. Also given the govt guarantees and the various related parties involved, does make you think this is a proper and serious initiative.

It will rocket if the market can get comfortable that there is a contractual and timely payment plan in place to settle the gas receivables. Right now there are not enough details, but there are lots of positive signals. Yes, am getting a wee bit excited but we need to temper that as there have been many false dawns in the past.

Yes, think your point makes sense. As for the USD bond issue, yes that bond was massively oversubscribed and its a good sign that investors are bullish on Nigeria's credit prospects. But that was the Hard-currency (USD) bond market , which is alot more sizeable and liquid than the local-currency bond mkt (NGN). I guess they dont want to introduce an FX mis-match issue which likely gave rise to so much debt in the first place. so they are going the Naira local bond route. That market remains healthy but is alot smaller and less liquid than the USD market. So realistically that would take a bit of time to get to the NGN 4 trillion mark.

Yep and even 2 yrs is not too bad, if there is a govt backed and contractual payment plan put in place. Although I do hope it is a bit faster than that.

Same article but not a simply copy and paste and with some commentary/ opinion: https://www.brandiconimage.com/2025/12/nigeria-launches-n4-trillion-power.html

Not much. Its only 15% of the proposed issuance, and we need alot more info. When are remaining tranches planning to be issued? When will the gencos (incl SAVE) get their legacy debt paid off?

Sally must have seen my post. Just emailed to confirm coffee morning will be in new year.

Hi All

Doesnt look like we are getting that GENCO Nigerian bond issued this year. I work in bond markets and most new issues have pretty much dried up this week given investors are thinking about xmas events & hols, and are not really in a position to commit capital. Also have not heard back from Sally on that December Coffee morning (I did email her again but no reply). Thus it seems we will have to wait until the new year for these events. Good luck to all and hope you guys have a good xmas break.

A Few Thoughts on Nigeria's N185 Billion Gas Debt

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/few-thoughts-nigerias-n185-billion-gas-debt-omono-okonkwo-anipr-5d2ff?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&utm_campaign=share_via

Sally.Marshak@savannah-energy.com

Its not a quarter. The payment is to all gas suppliers. SAVE only supply to 20% of the nigerian mkt. So technically its 20% of $128m which is basically eff all. Hence my hope the source article for all these articles are misquoting the main figure.