Member Info for scotpak

Just to clarify as there seems to be alot of shooting from the hip on this board. Tullow's short term debt maturities are: (1) 7% bond due in March 2025 with $490m outstanding (2) 10.25% due in May 2026 with $1.4bn outstanding. When mgmt say they have the 2025 debt covered that is because their estimated year end liquidity is as follows: (1) cash of $500m (estimate) (2) Undrawn revolving credit facility recently extended $250 (3) undrawn glencore facility $250m. Thus they have potentially $1bn to address the 2025 bond. Ideally they dont want to do that. There initial plan was to use the potential positive euphoria of the tax arbitration going there way to refi both bond in early 2025. Obviously when Rahul resigned, mkt got spooked thinking it was linked to a negative tax arbitration outcome. This is why the share dropped aggressively. Tullow mgmt then reached out to investors to ensure this was not the case.

My view is that election of new investment and oil company friendly president in Ghana gives Kosmos an incentive to purchase very cheap Tullow shares and reap the benefits as tax arbitration falls away and govt support comes back. Kosmos shares have underperformed recently too as the Senegal gas project cashflow became delayed. The board will have to convinced their shareholders on the positives (1) cheap price (2) literally same assets but alot more cashflow (3) materially positive change in governing party/ president in Ghana

Kosmos board will know the real facts. Tullow has a nebt debt/ EBITDA of only 1.3x whereas Kosmos is close to 2.0x. The reason KOSMOS equity is valued at 3x Tullow is because it has 3x more reserves, it is also more diversified, and has imminent free cash flow growth coming when it huge senegal gas project comes online. Tullow's main problem is not the amount of debt. Its the fact that $1.9bn of debt is due in the very short term ($500m in mar 25, rest if mar 26) combined with the tax arbitration decision and very poor timing of rahul's departure.

Maybe they knew the result of the arbitration but used the merger talks as the reason for not disclosing.

I think your analysis ignores the low cost and ease of extraction of this project compared to others.

Completely agree with PGee. Tullow mgmt have always claimed the case had no merit and they were very confident of a positive result.

If case goes tullow's way, not only does a $400m potential liability fall away, but could also provide the necessary impetus allowing Tullow to refinance its $1.9bn in bonds due to 2025 & 2026.

Glad ive got David85 filtered out. Im guessing hes talking utter drivel as usual.

Anybody have any idea what sparked this?

Its quite frustrating that these articles literally NEVER reference Savannah, the actual company who acquired the petronas assets. Hopefully in a strange way, it could be a good sign.

Check out page 12 (this is net debt, i.e. Total debt - cash):

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/4117/2492/8943/Tullow_Investor_Presentation_September_2024.pdf

Lol at the sole comment on that X post!

Yep, oil is down 2.6% on a potential Israel Hezbollah ceasefire, but honestly thats not a massive move and we are still comfortably above key technical level of $70 on brent (currently 73+). In comparison, Enquest (UK oiler @£214m mkt cap) is down 5%.

Cant see anything specific. Trading volume only a touch higher than daily average. Pretty brutal move driven by lack of liquidity bumping heads with a few sellers. Definitely not a stock for the faint hearted. Hopefully better days around the corner.

I think its a timing issue. They have not failed any major hurdles yet but likely disappointed the market with how long it has all taken. But perhaps other longterm holder could chime in with more info???

I havent been involved long, just a few months. But its amazing that this used to trade at 200p at one stage.

RNS out. Nothing material but key paragraph as follows:

The Company is actively engaged in discussions with several potential strategic partners. These discussions are aimed at identifying a partner that not only shares our long-term vision but also offers the resources and expertise to help unlock the full commercial potential and accelerate the adoption of LungLB®. While these discussions are progressing positively, the process is complex and requires careful consideration to ensure alignment on strategy and objectives. We will continue to keep shareholders updated and provide further details at the appropriate time.

The CEO mentioned the "field development investment decision within 18 months to 2 years". Can someone more knowledgeable please provide more information on this? Is this term interchangeable with "final investment decision"? Could we just be on hold for that length of time? He mentioned lots of newsflow to come. Which pieces of news should we be on the lookout for over the next few weeks/ months? thanks

Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-14038625/SMALL-CAP-IDEA-Deltic-Energy-gas-discovery-marred-windfall-tax-hike.html

but what value is there in just repeatedly going on about it being a **** company that is going bust, has no hope etc etc etc. we get it. this is a super risky play, high risk high reward etc.

i also agree that pointless ramping makes no sense either.

the board should be used ro discuss fundamentals, analyse similar deals, calculate probabilities through analysis. unfortunately this particular board is plagued by morons like good ol dave!!

Sure i get that. Both Canaccord and Allenby have stated on their reports that they should be viewed as marketing communications. The STIFEL report though is described as independent.

Also, I would add, I dont use them to make buy and sell decisions. Im just using them for some industry specfic analysis and a quick way to find alot of info quickly.

Thanks for the filter tip.