Member Info for scotpak

Zero value in beating a dead horse. Whats done is done. Lets focus on fundamentals, relevant newsflow. Otherwise, this will just become a venting forum like the other one!

I agree, this is good news. A material increase in cash balance from $32.6m (Dec 24) to $110m (Mar 25). Net debt also down by around $40m or close to $70m if you exclude the debt associated with the SIPEC acqn. (SIPEC was funded by a drawdown of a $60m RBL facility. It seems $40m of that debt has already been paid down (post 31 Mar 25), and likely that remaining $20m will be paid very soon, so this adjustment makes sense).

Yes, definitely. Hoping for some receivable payment news very, very soon, fingers crossed.

Bought £20k more at 7.2p. Thats me maxed out now ( although I said that the last time i bought! :) )

I know we are waiting on some big newsflow, e.g. receivables, litigation, etc etc.

But you have to be a little disappointed by the extremely poor share price reaction on such a big, "risk-on" day. Brent now at $66 having dipped to $59 last week. All Global equity indices flying post US china tariff deal. SAVE shares doing zero.

Current receivable figure could be higher but would be surprised if it was materially higher. The important thing is the SAVE are getting more confident on a potential material payment to bring down this figure and a structured payment plan to address remaining balance. I would also add, when I asked Andrew on the timing of the refinance of the remaining USD loan (refi'd to Naira term loan), Andrew said they might not need to do the full amount post the potential receivable payment as it would no longer be needed.

On receivables, my understanding is customer are invoiced in USD at a fixed USD/NGN rate on the invoice date. So invoiced in USD, but customer pay in Naira. Payments are usually received 30-90 days post invoice date. Given the huge depreciation in the NAIRA this led to huge FX losses. Customers were making full timely payments but their payments referenced the massively out of date invoice date USD/NGN rate. The "true-up" mechanism makes up for that big FX loss for SAVE and this explains the big increase in receivables. This is also the (BIG) part the Nigerian govt have not been addressing.

The current oil price trajectory is a bit concerning, but notwithstanding, the nigerian govt post elections are on a much firmer footing.

What the big man said! I'm taking a wee break!! 😉😊

Seeing 7.05/8.50!! Whats going on here? Maybe more experience guys know what might be driving this?

Its in there investor presentation (https://www.savannah-energy.com/investors/results-reports-presentations/)

Receivables balance is $538m. Yes its grown alot over the last few years, was around $200m (approx) in 2022.

But this big growth in receivables is directly linked the the depreciation of the NIARA vs USD which has gone from 450 (jan 23) to current level of 1,600. Gas contracts contain a "true -up" mechanism which ensures customers are paying the USD equivalent for their gas. As the Naria collapses, the receivables balance swelled up.

All discussed at length in my various posts. No big surprises here, all well flagged, and most are aware. Yes, its not a good situation, but hopefully they can get this addressed in coming months.

To LONGY1: AK suggested that they had several positive discussions with the govt on the receivables. However he was reluctant to formally RNS any newsflow until the payment was formally agreed or paid.

Was contacted by SAVE again on my notes. They wanted to point out that the $100m cash payment figure was purely for illustrative purposes on how a repayment plan would work.

They said discussions are ongoing with respect to a potential plan, so no potential plan or number has been agreed. If a meaningful number is agreed, they would disclose via a RNS.

I guess my notes perhaps implied that it was a done deal (that was not my intention) and the company wanted to correct this.

Majority of receivables are owed by Calabara power station which in turn is owned by the Nigerian govt. Thus the govt of Nigeria owes the debt. There is a world bank guarantee which covers $125m of debt. The govt didn't stop paying entirely. They just haven't paid the 80% or so of the receivables which come about due to the "True up" mechanism. This is a formula contained in SAVE's gas contracts which ensures their customers pay them the USD equivalent for what they are owed. Due to the recent collapse in the NAIRA (brought about by the necessity of the new govt to match the official fx rate with the street rate, done in order to improve FX liquidity and encourage foreign direct investment) the power stations bills have likely quadrupled. SAVE claim that post recent discussions with the govt they expect a $100m receivable payment and a payment plan for the rest.

Around 12 or so.

He mentioned doing an RNS for the $100m receivable payment but I don't think he did for the payment plan. But I don't think that was planned. We were talking about both issues together and someone specifically asked about a RNS linked to the payment.

On the 7p right issue, he made the point that the strategic investors (blacksea and new Nigerian investors) had come in through official lines, and it wouldn't have been the same if they had bought shares direct from institutional shareholders like TT. His view is these strategic investors will add value in different ways in future thus it made sense to acknowledge their involvement through an official process.

He also stated that Rights issue was NOT done for liquidity reasons.

Other correction which was a spelling mistake which I'm sure most figured out.

I meant to say Niger pipeline is NOW running (predictive text made me type "NOT" running.

Thus they would NOT exit Niger if they didn't get an agreement in place.

Apologies for my misunderstanding.

Somebody asked if they would consider a farmout if they agreement didn't come.

A correction to my previous notes prompted by Sally from SAVE. Yes, they do read stuff here.

When I suggested they would exit NIGER assets if they didn't get an agreement in place with JUNTA to utilise oil pipeline what I meant to say was following:

Andrew was asked about a possible farm out of that asset in the future and he said that you would need to demonstrate value i.e. proceed ahead before even considering a farm out.

Andrew did not duck any questions.

Andrew did not duck any questions.