RE: Coffee morning25 Apr 2025 13:06
My notes:
> 2/3 of biz exposure is fixed price gas. Oil related biz is largely hedged.
> obviously if oil price crashed, Nigeria is the largest customer, and their fiscal issues could affect company.
> 80%+ of receivable balance reflect the true up mechanism. Remaining balance has been linked to 100% full timely payment. This compares to average 40% of payment of some of their Nigerian peers.
> not looking at promissory notes, or free assets, to satisfy receivables. Focused on getting paid in cash.
> on receivables, expect to get a roughly $100m cash payment and with the remaining balance being linked to a new repayment plans. SAVE will RNS $100m payment.
> had meeting with Nigeria minister of finance this week in Washington.
> 2 big cash events coming (1) receivable payment (2) arbitration payment.
> arbitration in June and in October. Should get results 6 months post October. So expect award at end of Q1 2026. As part of nationalisation law, Chad admitted they have to pay compensation for nationalising assets. Andrew seems very confident on award. Some questions asked on discounting award for quicker payment. Andrew said we shall see.
> Chad nationalised assets as they felt SAVE paid 1/3 what the assets were worth. Andrew felt if they were not listed and did not have to publish free CF estimates for Chad assets, Chad govt would not have nationalised.
> on $200m acqn facility, Andrew says they always have good relations with big Trading companies. E.g.Vitol. trading companies. Thus helped get facility over line.
> have been in Niger for 10 years. $90 -95m of capex needed to kick off production. Military coup 18 months ago delayed export pipeline but that pipeline is not running. Save keen to utilise the pipeline. Need to get an agreement in place with Junta to use the pipeline. Discussions on this expected in May 25. SAVE don't want to proceed until a solid western standard agreement is in place. Once that is done, SAVE are up and running in terms of selling production and cash flow. Have already have heard positive messages verbally but need it in an agreement.
>> pipeline is 14km away from nearest discovery.
>> 20,000 barrells par day unutilised capacity. SAVE aim to use 50% of that.
> south Sudan assets generated $300-500m per annum. Buying them is a no brainer. Nationalisation risk is low, but they have a safeguard through arbitration.
> Andrew seems very, very confident on arbitration payment on Chad.
> on acquisitions, number 1 priority is CF generation. Thus focused is on good producing assets, not exploration assets.
> on local debt financing may not need to full amount now after they get receivable payments.
> strategic investor involved in re-listing will add alot of value in various ways aside from just being investors.