Member Info for scotpak

Was doing some reading of SAVE's old accounts. From 2014 to 2020, Grant Thornton was the auditor. Then in 2021 post save's gas biz acqn, they felt they needed a bigger firm to audit their bigger company, thus they switched to BDO. Now they are saying, after BDO leaves they will be replaced by a BIG 4 firm, which only makes sense, because only a big 4 auditing firm would have the resources to effectively manage the much bigger and more complex current savannah business (which may get bigger very soon thru acqns).

Seems to me its just a logical progression??

IF they can get funding for the Selena project then 25 to 35p per share could be achievable. But as you can imagine, that is a big IF.

Lots of chatter about softening of uk govt towards north sea, better project economics etc etc, but it's all meaningless unless they get some funding. Fingers crossed for all the holders.

Yep, and new auditor will be combo of big 4 and mid tier firm. Auditors change all the time.

Via google: Under AIM Rules, annual audited accounts must be published within six months of the financial year end (30th june), and half-yearly reports must be published within three months of the end of the relevant period. AIM companies can request a three-month extension for the annual audited accounts deadline, but this needs to be approved by AIM Regulation.

Hxul, thanks for the polite reply. I am happy to issue an apology now.

You just come across alot of idiots on some of these boards and perhaps I lumped you in with those lot prematurely.

Hxul, u claim to be a financially astute analyst looking at SAVE from a case study point of view. But then when you come out with drivel like this, u just come across as a child/ troll?? Nothing wrong with being critical, but do it with facts.

I do recall being surprised by AK's confidence at the coffee morning on the arbitration outcome.

Hearings in June and Oct 25 and with arbitration result in Q1 26, we are not too far way.

Maybe the bigger institutional sellers are done?? Anyway fingers crossed.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SAVE/savannah-energy-plc/company-page

Sorry I abbreviated by saying LSE website, but means this website: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/

I guess the quotes are more detailed here.

On the LSE website, there are 2 separate trades at 9.58am. Both were done at 6.4p. Both were for 22,236,821 shares. Both have a transaction value of £1.4m. 22,236,821*0.064= £1.4m.

So a 44m share off-book trade occurred with a total traded value of £2.8m at a price of 6.4p.

From a previous email I posted:

On receivables, my understanding is customer are invoiced in USD at a fixed USD/NGN rate on the invoice date. So invoiced in USD, but customer pay in Naira. Payments are usually received 30-90 days post invoice date. Given the huge depreciation in the NAIRA this led to huge FX losses. Customers were making full timely payments but their payments referenced the massively out of date invoice date USD/NGN rate. The "true-up" mechanism makes up for that big FX loss for SAVE and this explains the big increase in receivables. This is also the (BIG) part the Nigerian govt have not been addressing.

My understanding is that the majority of the current receivables balance are due to the "true-up"mechanism. Obviously there will be an amount that will be linked to normal working capital seasonality/ timing.

Thanks for your reply Moho. On the facility, given that it is signed and interest rate and repayment terms are set, Im pretty sure the due diligence is complete. Entities granting loans dont perform due diligence only when the borrower makes a request to draw the facility. At least that's my experience from working in credit/bonds for many years.

As for the FX, yes, in high inflation EM countries, high depreciation can become the norm. However in Nigeria's case, what happened is definitely rare. The previous Nigerian govt and central bank held the NGN artificially high for a number of years, resulting in a huge disparity with the street rate. The new incoming govt realised if they wanted to restart FDI, massively improve dollar liquidity and retain good relations with the IMF, they would need to massively reprice the FX to bring it back to fair value. This resulted in this huge move of 400 to 1600. The only other country where exactly the same thing happened was Egypt. So just making a point, this is not the norm across africa.

But good to play devils advocate!! We can always get caught up in getting biased by our positioning.

In terms of liquidity there are some positive signs. After several quarters of decline the cash balance increased materially from $32.6m (Dec 24) to $110.4m (Mar 25). Cash is king after all, and this is a good sign of decent Cashflow generation. Also as I have mentioned before, if Savannah were in dire straits liquidity wise, there is no way in hell they would have been granted a $200m acquisition facility. The amount of due diligence that goes on in the background before such a facility is granted is immense.

As for the receivables balance, important to re-iterate, the Nigerian entities made 100% of all the required gas payments linked to their invoices in a timely manner. What they have not paid (and other energy companies are in the same boat) is the receivables linked to the "true-up"mechanism to compensate SAVE for the HUGE depreciation in USD/NAIRA. Remember we have gone from 400 to 1600 in terms of USD/NGN. You cant entirely blame SAVE for that. Many customers have seen their invoices quadruple over 1 year. But as mentioned many times before, hopefully a payment plan is in the making and hopefully released soon.

As for the time wasted on Sudan/ chad etc. Obviously those were major mis-steps and you cant get away from that.

Also important distinction here is that AK has not just bought the shares as a "one-off". If he had, it could just be viewed as a speculative/ biased purchase which often happens with many companies. Here its different, has he has made multiple purchases of material amounts with many actioned in recent weeks/ months.

He is using "total liabilities" from the balance sheet to get the $1.2bn figure. Normally when we discuss debt we refer to interest paying loans and debt instruments which for SAVE is around the $600m figure. Total Liabilities includes around $200m of accounts payable (working capital) and around $375m of deferred revenue (money a company receives for goods or services that haven't been delivered or completed). Im not suggesting Working capital movements should be ignored. Often they can highlight key structural weaknesses or underlying deterioration. But strictly speaking its not part of normal debt.

Indeed, appreciate the due diligence Zengas.

No worries at all!! 👍🏽👍🏽

1,540,000 x £0.065 = £100,100.

So yes, he bought £100k worth of shares at 6.5p today.

CEO bought £100k more shares at 6.5p today. RNS out.

Just correcting an error from before. The SIPEC acquisition was for a total of $35m. This was funded by a drawdown from the $60m RBL facility. Currently that facility is drawn by $40m. Thus amount available for further drawings is $20m.

So basically my assumption that they had paid this amount down by a material amount post 31 March is incorrect.

Anyway, still a very positive update. Fingers crossed for more good news.