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Positive sign but how does this clear arrears as the article suggests. In USD terms this payment is tiny and only equal to 1/4 of SAVE's receivable? Hoping maybe the figures in article are misquoted?

Well the govt did offer to the pay the gencos (& save) 50% of their legacy debt in mid oct. Was rightfully rejected by all, but at least it improves the tail risk of worst case scenario.

Yep steer well clear of such businesses. Save's hands already full with plenty late payments and litigations.

Full post: Also the heavily oversubscribed USD bond issue was done around 3 weeks after the govt made the 50% offer to genco. So perhaps the positive market reception to nigerian credit perhaps improves the odds of a much better offer. 50% cash + installments would be a good outcome.

Also the heavily oversubscribed USD bond issue was done around 3

Understood and agree! :)

Sally from save simply said to me in an email that they plan to hold a coffee morning in December. She said she would email again when date was firmed up. There was no suggestion it would be early December, however makes sense it should be sooner rather than later given we are approaching xmas hols.

Correction: Approve = improve! (or drastically improve)

Obviously receivables/ Chad litigation etc rely on external factors outside their control, but was there any discussion on plans to approve accounting controls, hiring a new auditor, and getting a set of accounts that come with a "true and fair view" sign off?

Guys, we are all super annoyed at what has transpired at SAVE. But lets chill with all this toxicity. Zero value in turning this into a moaning board.

Https://www.vanguardngr.com/2025/11/gencos-reject-fgs-offer-to-forfeit-50-of-n5trn-debt/

Key points:

> Looks like the Nigerian govt committee set up to solve the GENCO debt crisis tried to get the companies to accept a 50% haircut (reduction) on the legacy debt owed to them.

> They had 5 days to accept the offer and ALL GENCOs rejected offer by the 21st of Oct

> The source explained that after the GenCos rejected the offer, the companies presented two potential approaches to the government, which the contract documents ignored. According to the source, the first option was for the government to immediately pay N2.4 trillion (50% of total) to the GenCos, with the balance deferred to later dates. The second option was for the application of a 10 per cent haircut on interest relating to energy and capacity delivered while paying deemed capacity and true-up in full.

> However, a source in one of the GenCos told Vanguard that the deal which was being pushed through by the Presidential Power Sector Debt Reduction Plan Committee, was in bad faith and calculated to undermine the pledge by President Tinubu to resolve the financial crisis facing the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry, NESI.

The source, who did not want to be named for fear of victimization, noted that at the meeting between the Ministers of Finance and Power, the Special Adviser to the President on Energy and selected chairmen of power generation companies, the 50 per cent offer was roundly rejected.

“For them now to draw up individual contracts for the companies and force it down on them is quite unfortunate. The GenCos have again rejected it and we are insisting that the government should pay off the debt in full,” the source added.

Howdent/ AGADEM, I will definitely be going to the coffee morning in Dec if its works with my work diary. If you remember, last time I made sure every question people brought up on this board was asked. In fact, it was a fairly exhaustive session, nothing was left unturned. Happy to do the same again.

They operate in africa, building and preserving cash is key, as is paying down debt. Also they are still awaiting big payments on receivables. Do you really think it would be wise buying big chunks of equity, before the balance sheet, debt and liquidity are in order.

Rampers dont have any money left guvner. Ive even looked under the sofa!!

Yes, very concerning. We need ACTION from the company ASAP. Either through directly buying shares in secondary market &/or though issuing a statement to address investor's concerns about Receivables, liquidity, privatisation, lack of auditior and poor state of accounting controls etc etc!!

Super illiquid this morning. Not buying more, but couldnt get a quote for 1,000 shares (£55) to either buy or sell on HL.

Whilst we eagerly await for some positive news regarding Nigerian Receivables and the issue of that bond which will finance those payments, here are 2 pieces of news that at least shows that Nigeria remains on a positive Trajectory:

1) S&P upgraded rating outlook from stable to Positive

In our view, the monetary, economic, and fiscal reforms being implemented by Nigerian authorities will yield positive benefits over the medium term.

The growth outlook is improving, for both the hydrocarbon and nonhydrocarbon sectors.

We have revised our outlook on Nigeria to positive from stable, based on the potential for continued gains, particularly in our external and monetary analysis.

2) Nigeria inflation slows to 3 year low, boosting rate cut bets

Now come on Nigeria, lets get this done!!

Bought some more at 5.7. Our next meeting could be either in my new yacht or at the poor house!!!

Completely agree HXUL. I am long the stock for a material amount thus will always be a bit biased due to my long position. Basic investing psychology I guess. So it does make sense to focus on the material tail risks. So what are the main tail risks. 1) Nigeria receivables dont get paid or get delayed for a very long time 2) Chad arbitration yields no results 3) production issues arise and we eat up cash 4) discrepancies appear in accounts, investors lose faith in accounts, potential fraud issues arise etc

No. 4 would obviously be very negative, but I think the work SAVE have done obtaining world bank guarantees, securing new and large banking facilities, completing material acquisitions, would have entailed huge amounts of due diligence from various counterparties, and does give me confidence that numbers are good. Yes, all these acquisitions, and additional business complexities have likely lead to a deterioration in accounting controls which have not kept up with biz developments but hopefully these issues can be addressed.

As for all the other tail risks, I think SAVE can survive those. Its net debt/ EBITDA is only 3.1x . Cash at Sep was over $100m. There doesnt seem to be any huge looming debt maturities, with the accugas USD facility refinancing almost complete. Also cash collections have improved materially, so even we dont get a huge receivable paydown, the overall number should continue to fall. SAVE's core gas biz has a material market share in Nigeria and remains important to the country, and this remains a strong positive.

So you might be saying, "here he goes again with all his biased positivity", but did think it made sense to share my thoughts.

No dusters here, just loads of current production and tons of free CF potential. Fingers crossed we start to realise some of this. C'mon mgmt!!!