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Wow, easy on the hostility. I may have not fully understood some industry/ funding concepts but am mostly quoting broker notes and DELTIC RNSs. Why you got your knickers in a twist?

Forgot to include this:

Despite the reduced resource size, the improved quality of reservoir may result in better well productivity. In addition, the likely smaller scale and simpler development could also be expected to result in lower capex and operating costs, though the company is still in the early stages of that evaluation (canaccord note)

Why could selene succeed when Pensacola didnt?

> Selene Development costs (pre-drill results) were estimated at $400m vs $1.6bn for Pensacola

> Pensacola was in a remote location, also in a formation which included liquids making extraction more complex. Whereas Selene is located in a well-developed gas producing zone near existing Shell infrastructure. Only requirement would be installing a short pipeline to Shell’s existing Clipper platform. Gas will then flow to the Shell operated terminal and processing facility at Bacton.

> Selene will now not need a further appraisal well whereas Pensacola still needs to do one

> Selene has a shorter lead time to first production

> Some more info from broker note: Selene, located in the Leman sandstone fairway in the heart of the SNS, is an extremely well-developed gas producing zone. Thousands of wells have been drilled into the Leman sandstone since the first such sandstone discovery in 1959. This has resulted in a vast stock of technical information for all key parameters.

Contrast with the Pensacola a SNS frontier Zechstein play: Pensacola, by

comparison, in a SNS context, is a frontier play based on Zechstein carbonate formations.

This is a new play concept which unlike the Leman sandstones is prospective primarily for

gas and to a lesser extent oil. Owing to the relative remoteness of the Pensacola location

plus the presence of liquids, development costs are likely to be considerably greater than

at Selene which is close to Shell infrastructure

Sorry, they are carried to a gross cost of $49m.

From July RNS: Following farm-outs to Shell in 2019 and Dana Petroleum (E&P) Limited ("Dana") in February 2024, Deltic is fully carried for its 25% working interest in the Selene well up to a gross success case well cost of USD$49M, which is in excess of the Operator's success case well Authorisation for Expenditure of USD$47M.

Penscola was a completely different situation given they could not complete the farm-out process and were not able to get the necessary funding/ partner to participate in the dig.

Selene is a completely different situation as two farm-outs were completed (1 to Shell, 1 to Dana petroleum). Thus Deltic is fully carried in cost terms. It does not need to seek out funding for the upcoming production as Shell and Dana will fund it all.

The key news we are now waiting on is confirmation that Shell/ Dana will start production and its timeline. Shell will also have the option to either allow Deltic to share in cashflows as 25% partner or to buy them out.

Happy to be corrected on above, as Im still relatively new to this share.

Because contractually Deltic own a 25% share in Selene. If they want a quarter of the Cashflows associated with the discovered gas they are working on, they would need to pay up. Deltic going bust and having a zero mkt value is irrelevant.

David spent the morning ramping, now he is agressively de-ramping??? Completely ridiculous. Whats your game? Fundamentals havent changed since the morning? Are you just very annoyed share price fell?

Im holder so am obviously going to be a bit biased but lets focus on some positives:

> Selene was not a duster. Tail risk of duster is gone

> This could provide some upside: "In addition to Selene, Deltic will re-evaluate the Endymion prospect, located on the north-eastern corner of the block, which is another low-risk Leman Sandstone opportunity that could be tied into any future Selene development" (quote from RNS)

> Canaccord risked target price of 30p still provides considerable upside

>> The clear success of a gas discovery at Selene is tempered by the lower estimate of recoverable gas resources compared with pre-drill projections. Nevertheless, the early indication - based on Deltic's evaluation of the data - is that gas volumes are likely to be commercial. That is a positive starting point, but we will look for more detailed

assessments to confirm that early promise. The recent budget announcement of no further changes to UK fiscal terms is also helpful in raising the chances of project sanction. However, there is no getting around the smaller than hoped for size of Selene, and it is yet to be seen if that reduces partner appetite (Shell operator currently, though in a sale

process; and Dana) to push for early project sanction. Though there is clearly potential for Deltic to sell/farmout its interest in Selene. Based on our own preliminary evaluation of a potential Selene P50 resource development

we reduce our risked NPV10 target price to 30p (from 80p) and we maintain our Speculative BUY rating.

> Upcoming potential positive triggers remains (linked to further testing, funding etc etc)

Fingers crossed guys. But im relieved worst case is behind us.

For what its worth, Cannacord and Stifel have maintained their BUY ratings and have adjusted their target prices downwards to 30p and 20p respectively reflecting the lower than expected size of the discovery. I would assume that post discovery and given less tail-risk, achieving at least 50% of those target prices should be an absolute minimum??

I suspect we were and are likely still being held by the huge sell orders from the mgmt team. Given daily liquidity level, and order size of that magnitude likely take days/ weeks to complete? Others may have better info.

The selene "geological chance of success" is 70%. This has been stated multiple times.

Hopefully this acquisition brings investor's attention back to BHL.

I hope this means they are confident about their tax arbitration case with Ghana which in a worst case scenario could mean a $387m payout (They expect good news on the case in November). This also goes to show how tough it is out there for

operators in Africa even for those of Tullow's much larger size.

Fingers crossed we get 1, 2 or 3!!

I think its important to remember before the chad and subsequent SS suspension, SAVE hadnt really proven its Free CF generation ability or debt paydown ability of our core assets. Usually you need at least 3 to 4 quarters of this before the market starts pricing it in. Thus I think its important to take that into account when looking at previous price points, thus for example the core assets should have been valued at 40p+ and not 27p had they been seasoned and fully understood by the mkt.

Obviously not Z, but as I stated in previous email, the removal of Chad related debt (non-course) and the cash due from the FX true-up mechanism reduces debt by roughly $200m bringing it from around $570m to $370m. Then come the hard bit. What is the run rate EBITDA? Deduct from this your interest cost (currently $42m) and then deduct capex (depreciation+ depletion cost). Given all the acquisitions and FX vol, its hard to calculate the above figures accurately. But I think getting to a net cash position (cash > debt) can be achieved in 3 yrs max if there are no material hiccups with the core business. Obviously CHAD compensation could get us there in 1 yr.

Will have a go next week to drill down into these numbers properly next week.

If you read some of the analysis below, you will realise that if one was to strip out the non-recourse debt related to chad acqn, and make an adjustment on the cash inflow expected from the FX true-up mechanism (reported in numbers but cash received after balance sheet date), net debt falls by over $200m and net leverage (net debt/EBITDA) falls from reported 3.2x to more like 1.5x. If you then start to make adjustments to account for the completed Stubb Creek acqn and Gas compression project we start to look even better. Then you have potential positive triggers of SS acqn, Chad compensation, NIGER production and Solar projects.

So things arent looking too bad to be honest. I suspect we have all been too focused on extremely frustrating SS acqn and our very, very long suspension.

On the currency, yes the Naira could rally but we are talking 5-10% max. It will be impossible for it to rally to an extent to reverse cash losses (those losses attributed to cash balances held in Naira).

Remember the Naira (like the Egyptian Pound) was pegged to the USD, which means the currency was managed to hold it at a certain USD rate. Over time this caused huge imbalances and meant that the Naira street mkt rate was significantly weaker than the official rate. This meant the official rate was massively overvalued, preventing foreign investors from investing in Nigeria. To kickstart inflows and improve USD liquidity, the nigerian govt was forced (like Egypt) to massively devalue the Naira to bring it in line with the street rate. Now that this is complete, Nigeria is in a much better place economically (IMF funding has been released, credit rating outlook upgraded, Sovereign bonds rallied, Foreign inflows much improved, USD liquidity improved).

So ultimately this should help SAVE in getting the local bond issued to refinance the NGN facility. But recouping those FX losses through FX movements is highly unlikely. At least FX losses of this scale will not be repeated in the next few years.

I think you are right on both those points Zengas as there are no matching amount in the Cashflow statement.

Was looking at the accounts this morning again. Here are some of my notes:

> Money was spent on following where revenues are not yet flowing in :

>> $61.5m for Stubb creek acqn

>> $45m related to gas compression project

>>> Both initiatives are positive developments which will materially increase EBITDA/ freeCF

> EBITDA was $91.6m for the 6 months period However including Other operating income it rises to $201.5. The extra amount comes from the "true -up Mechanism" including in the gas contracts of the largest customers that makes the customers make a payment to account for the FX losses

> The Naira hit on cash was $60m, thus fairly material. But as I said before, the Huge FX adjustment is mostly behind us. A local bank facility is now in place which is paying down the Accugas USD debt, and this local facility is expected to be replaced by the local currency bond

> $127m of the Debt on balance sheet relates to the CHAD acqn of which only $37m is recourse to SAVE. Thus you would ideally strip the non-recourse portion out when calculating net leverage which SAVE have not done.

CONCLUSION: Loads of one offs related to acqn debt, FX losses and projects where CF is expected to flow in. Given all the various initiatives, doesnt look to bad to me. Even if you dont include CHAD, SS, NIGER, and the various Solar projects (where CF is expected in a few yrs time)

Production is up 3%, and revenue was affected by an accounted change affecting the treatment of take or pay contracts (although we dont know the exact magnitude). This boosted 2023 figures vs 2024.

RR, u really need to chill a bit. We are all in this together. Dont get all Victor Meldrew on us.