Member Info for scardey_cat

You want to see images of sales invoices Grumpy?

Just to add, under the ‘Reason for reporting’ section, I chose the ‘Abusive/Disriptive’ option, since ‘Vacuous Self Serving Numpty’ wasn’t available from the drop down menu.

Reported:
Admin
Could you please consider taking action against the poster ‘littlethobo’. He has been constantly posting negative propaganda directed at Dev Clever, for the past several days, repeatedly issuing the same speculative, gloom-ridden statements. This is a debating forum, yet this person is using it to drive his own selfish agenda, clearly designed to damage sentiment and provide him/her with a self-serving opportunity.

Ndn: From the 22 Apr Presentation Q&A

"Practically, the lateral flow test performance would be evaluated with the new Affimer reagent to ensure that analytical performance in the laboratory was not affected. We anticipate that this would take a few weeks following the generation of the new Affimer reagent. The new test would then need to be evaluated in the clinic to confirm the clinical sensitivity and specificity which again would take a few weeks. Since this would be a new test from a legal perspective a new self-declaration of conformity would need to be made to affix the CE mark to the product. Our experience of new variants thus far suggests that we will not need to do this very often if at all."

Pl, in the scenario that sees Medusa manufacturing Affidx, there would be at minimum one clause to renegotiate. That would be the clause that covers who gets first call on any available product. For example, let's say Avacta has managed to stockpile 10ml tests manufactured by GAD. Medusa receives a purchase order for 10ml tests from one of their customers, at the same time as Avacta receive an order for 10ml tests from govt (UK, or other). Who do you think gets first call on the stockpile? Fairly obvious answer, I would think.

Now let's imagine that stockpile had been built using Medusa manufacturing capacity. Who gets first call in that case? I'm pretty sure Medusa won't be saying "Ok, Al, we'll send over the tests right now. We'll just get on the blower and tell our customer sorry we're out of stock"

gmcc: Hard to believe Avacta have pulled out of the deal merely due to a change in sampling method. Not in their interests to do that. If Avacta thought it was a good idea re: saliva, why would they now think it not a good idea re: AN. Of course, existing agreement can be changed or new agreement put in place.

MilkMONSTA: Of course, Avacta would have to TT the test architecture Avacta/Mologic have come up with. But, don't forget the cassette is made of 'readily available components', so easy enough to do. This would be part of the negotiation. I don't mean 'close' in the lovey, dovey sense, let's amend that close working relationship :-)

“My view - Medusa talking about their increasing capacity was a marketing ploy to try and get some fomo going.”

I think there may be more truth in that than you imagine PL. However, the fomo element may very well be directed at Avacta. It is highly likely there have been discussions/negotiations between Avacta and Medusa regarding Medusa’s manufacturing capacity, given the close relationship between the two. Assuming this to be the case, it might be useful to look at the probable opening positions of the two companies in such a negotiation.

Avacta’s opening negotiating position
- You manufacture our tests and we stick to the original profit sharing deal, with you having exclusivity for B2C and non-exclusivity for other markets

Medusa’s opening negotiating position
- We manufacture your tests with our own raw materials, with you providing the reagents and we pay you a small commission on any sales we make (emphasising the gulf in margin for them between sales of Affidx & RSPT). We have exclusivity for B2C and non-exclusivity for other markets

Important to remember that when the two companies struck a deal last year, presumably it was not known or envisaged that some months down the line Medusa would become a manufacturer of LFD’s. Had Medusa already been a manufacturer of LFD’s at that stage, the deal they arrived at would probably have looked very different – with Medusa having a much stronger hand to play.

I think the negotiations (in all probability still ongoing) between the two companies will be directed at finding a compromise between these two opening positions. It would not be unreasonable to hypothecate that Medusa, overstating their manufacturing capacity and embellishing demand for the RSPT test, are merely using this as leverage in the above negotiations. Medusa will know all too well the value of this capacity to Avacta.

Not to exaggerate the point, I can’t over emphasise the sense of urgency and enthusiasm exuding from our friend down at M19, when he said “we need the numbers”, together with his look of disappointment at not being able to find the extra tests. To me, that doesn’t square with someone who is confident of knocking out 25ml RSPT tests per week, and as a consequence, just sees Affidx, due to supply limitations, as a nice little earner on the side. Tempting to say, watch this space.

Don't know about new bezza PL, probably more like persona non grata, after that episode. I imagine at the next study they'll have special bouncers, checking out everyone's share account statements. Any appearance of AVCT and you'll be given short shrift and be immediately escorted off the premises. That's after they've taken your snapshot and fingerprints, of course.

He did say he hoped to secure additional UK manufacturing capacity, outside of GAD, ABDX & BBI. And, I think AS is quite cautious when it comes to making potentially misleading statements (he plays it by the book) - "without misleading" were his words in the last presentation. I mean, what other significant LFD manufacturers are there that we know about in the UK, apart from the usual suspects? Can't be that many, or we'd have heard of them???

It's quite a leap Dec20 -> 50mil, to Jan21 -> 100mil. Takes some explaining. I mean it's hardly slip of the tongue stuff.

And looking at RNmyS S&S numbers, are there really customers lined up to buy 25mil RSPT tests/week...would be very surprising. Not beyond the realms of possibility, that M19 have secured access to a 'supply chain' with the Avacta test in mind, rather than RSPT. That would be a nice left field RNS.

The counter-argument, I suppose, is that M19 will make significantly more margin from sales of their own test, rather than the margin they'll make on Avacta's test, but will demand considerations of the respective tests have a greater influence on that decision?

Strange how the message was changed in January to:

"We're up to a supply chain of 100mil/month."
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=626686341553503

Made me wonder, one month later, why they started referring to it as a 'supply chain'. If they own one factory producing rapid tests, where does 'supply chain' fit in. Were they cheekily including Avacta's potential capacity, knowing they would also be manufacturing the Avacta's test, or have they secured additional third party capacity?

"Looks like Palmers been banned again."

Quite funny that Arnold keeps getting booted off the golf course. Probably made it to the third hole this morning, before the course official spotted him. Back to the driving range it is then...

Takes about two minutes to complete a confirmation statement on line (something you HAVE to do on an annual basis). You just confirm PSC's (persons of significant control). You then get a drop down menu of SIC codes to chose from, that's about it. We already know they're a manufacturer of medical devices, they've just selected it as their current principal activity, which is hardly surprising given that they're presumably more engaged with manufacturing tests, than they are with selling them at the moment. So, what's the significance, am I missing something?

Not a dewamp, obviously, since it would be splendid to see M19 knocking out 50-100m tests a month for us, but that will happen regardless of whatever the current SIC code is. Just a case for me of the MD being diligent enough on the day to bother selecting the right code. It has no material impact on the company.

You're right PL, it's just part of the 'Confirmation Statement' companies have to complete every year and send to Companies House. Used to have to do it myself. It applies to Ltd companies and PLC's, so not really that significant.

At the risk of being perceived as 'milking it', I just thought I'd share my reply to Christian's email to finally close the chapter on Glasshousegate. Thanks for all your kind and encouraging comments over the last few days. It's been quite an adventure.

From: **********
Sent: 14 May 2021 13:29
To: 'Christian Stephenson'
Subject: RE: Alderley Park Rapid Antigen Test Study

Dear Christian

Thank you for your very courteous reply.

We actually turned up at the study just on the chance of seeing (and taking) our 'Holy Grail' test (will leave it up to you to decide which one I'm talking about), a test we have all been speculating and learning about for over a year now. We have all had to show great patience with our respective investments, a patience I suspect is somewhat similar to Medusa19's patience, albeit in a different sense.

It certainly didn't cross my mind at all, the possibility of influencing the results. That would have been grossly irresponsible in these serious times. I do thank you, though, for highlighting the inherent dangers of rogue elements distorting a study and will certainly bear this in mind for the future.

I hope you don't mind that I have shared the email contents with my fellow investors, since the information contained therein is quite generic. In hindsight, I now wish I had sought your permission first, but I guess there's no harm done.

Many, many thanks for taking the trouble to reply and for giving this particular adventure it's dénouement.

I wish you and Medusa19 all the very best in your current endeavors.

Kind regards

A moral dilemma...

Hands up who hasn’t had that shameful / selfish thought that, the longer this goes on the more money I can make…riches beyond my wildest dreams!

Don’t know about others, but that’s starting to wear a bit thin with me now. I mean, it’s great having the Aston Martin, but not so great when there’s nowhere to go in it. It’s great having the villa in Marbella, but not so great when you’re not allowed to travel to Spain. And, it’s great having the yacht, but not so great when the marina is in lock down.

I sold my business in Aug 2019 and apart from a well needed and extended jaunt to sunny Andalucia, I’ve retired into a virtual permanent lockdown.

So, a significant number of us find ourselves pondering the trade-off between the wonderful freedoms life has to offer and the all too human emotions of greed and avarice.

What’s your trade-off, 6 months, 12 months, two years? Or, do you want it over now and sod the riches?

Yeh, sorry Ndn, no criticism of you intended. I meant to put a smiley face at the end of that.
I realise you were being supportive of the “the lengths PI’s will go to” concept.

"Good of him to confirm they’re following MHRA protocols :-)"

It was all round good of him to even find time for a chat, as can be seen, he was clearly busy with something at the time.

https://ginolis.com/wp-content/uploads/compact-size.jpg

Now, Ndn, what was that you were saying about market manipulation?

* wrong thread

...and thanks to Infinis for providing some balance. Very funny, and probably quite accurate.