Member Info for Scampthedog

Still not a peek. So once again: go to CWU home page...click on " News and activities"...click on "campaigns"...click on "The Four Pillars Of Security"...click on the pension video with Terry Pullinger; move it through quickly by pushing the cursor forward to get through the video...this is where you want to be: a choice of three videos appears; click on the video entitled; "Terry Pullinger emergency moition". If any of you want a concise insight into the conflict that exists between the CWU and Royal mail management...then watch this. You just might learn a thing or two. :) might!

If you really want to understand the historic obstacles and inherent problems that exist between the Royal Mail leadership and the CWU union then I suggest that you do the following: Put "CWU" into your search engine...click on their homepage...click on "CWU annual conference 2019. You might be rather surprised, and somewhat shocked to read Deputy Terry Pullinger's remarks. After readingall of this: go to the header bar and click on "campaigns"...click on "The Four Pillars Of Security"; you will find a video there with Mr Pullinger talking...cannot harm to have a listen? You will notice, if you take a look that is, that one of the four pillars concerns the: "Shorter Working Week". This is a major and fast looming problem!! As part of the deal that was cut under that towering colossus Moya Green it was agreed to reduce the posties working week from 39 hours to 35 over the next two years (from present time); this year, in October, it goes down to 37...35 by 20121. It is already falling apart; it works okay in delivery...but in processing -- OPPSSSS!!! Hence Mr Pullinger's choice of background music at his closing speech of the conference (2nd May) : "You aint seen nothing yet"!! Most of you on here really don't know what you are talking about...because you have never really taken the time to find out. Period! It is not Royal Mails network and intention to modernize that is the problem...but the upward battle the company faces in getting the CWU to accept it. And that, in this business at any rate -- is everything!!

Let us start with your grossly over inflated delusion, Spacecake: £5.00 by xmas 2019 and £6.00 by next year -- really?!!! Has it not occurred to you that if there was even the slightest possibility of £5.00 by xmas of this year the share price would, by now, be approaching something in the mid £3.00 range? Why? Because every level-headed investor this side of the Atlantic would not want to miss out on, not only an excellent dividend (even if cut by half) but an obviously big juicy return. £5.00...yeah...whatever. And nuri: just because the a*se fell out of it in just under a year does not equate to the share price rising back up just as fast! Four years at least to see the sp return to its former high...if not longer. I keep repeating myself...but I will say it again: this is a long term stock -- not a quick earner! The Royal Mail needs to modernize on a big scale -- and modernize quick; it will have to borrow to spend its way out of trouble in the short term. You might have to wait 18 months at least before the share price reaches even £4.00 again.. Oh...and I am not a troll or shorter -- I am an investor in the Royal Mail!

Appears the market is rather undecided right at this moment...everyone looking at each other waiting for someone to make the first move perhaps? Not for the fainthearted! lol... P.s Apparently the feeling, from across the pond anyways, is that China might have overplayed its hand with Mr Trump -- lets all bl**dy well hope so!!

As for Mr Spaced out and Mr Port Stanley...well -- what can one say! Apart from: one is, obviously, sat in some sort of Dutch internet cafe...and the other? Well, he has nothing better to do on that God-forsaken-windblown island apart from counting sheep or indulging in "pie-in-the-sky". I admire your pluck if you are pinning all your hopes on sub £2.00 Falkland old boy...and if you do achieve it I will be the first to congratulate you on your great foresight.

Commenting on what Nuri wrote regarding the sp: "looney bin range". I have to agree. Yes...it sums it all up perfectly: if you are happy to wait ( and we are talking minimum several years) the share price will be a long way upwards from the present one; couple that with the dividend (even a reduced one) and in several years time you will be showing a very tidy profit indeed!

Your right, JBTHISTLE. Good news indeed! I checked it myself a couple of hours ago and it was, at the time, still about 6.25%...or there abouts. Perhaps they have heard something concerning Royal Mail's imminent "5 Year Plan" announcement? Whatever the reason -- .it is much welcomed news!

Not sure, MailCurious, exactly when the article was wrote... but it is not referring to Xmas shopping in particular but to all online retailers; many major players in the retail sector now offer free returns of course. The general feeling is, that soon all online retailers will also have to offer free outward shipping as well as returns (forgot to add that most important part in previous comment...oops) with costs being absorbed by the retailer. Makes sense if you want to stay out in front in a highly competitive market place.

Anyone interested in my previous comment can type this into their search engine: "Free Returns - A competitive Advantage?" Takes you to a Royal Mail page...worth a read.

By the way another little piece of "insider information"; this comes from a postie who, in the last 24 hours, took part in a "work time learning" session. It seems, most recently, a survey amongst retailers has taken place. A single question was put to them: "do you accept that in the very near future you will have to offer free postage for all Mail-Order-Returns? The overriding answer was -- "yes". This is great news for the Royal Mail! The Royal Mails "special niche" in the market is bulk...nobody shift parcels in tonnage better than the Royal Mail. Their new parcel sorting hub, in Warrington, that is to go operational very shortly is obvious testament to this fact. By the way: that new parcel sorting hub has had its start date brought forward...instead of October I think it is more likely to be August. Look out for positive news very shortly on Royal Mail's Capital Markets Day!

Well: regarding my prediction for a value between £2.30 and £2.40...does that make me some kind of financial genius? Nope! No more than it makes me a troll or shorter of this stock. Apology accepted, Redceo! I actually own quite a few shares in the Royal Mail...I have a complete faith, that, in the long term, the company will get it right.

Don't hold your breathe, Farruggia1967, regarding that U.S/China trade deal...there will be a lot of sabre rattling from both sides (particularly from the US) over the next couple of weeks...but the deal will be done. When it does, and this might actually happen over the next day or two in all fairness, the share price will start to climb back up...I reckon sometime soon it will breach that £1.00 barrier.

If a trade war erupts between China and the U.S then IQE will sink faster than the Titanic! Anything involved in an industry that involves semiconductors will be badly hit. However, the smart money is on Trump coming to a deal with the Chinese...he does'nt want to wreck the U.S economy in a run up to an election...so cannot afford to lose the stock market. I would still expect this stock to retreat a bit over the next week or two -- maybe even quite a bit. Good buying opportunity I would think.

I am not surprised in the least to see where the share price is at that moment...it was'nt hard to forecast; tomorrow it will either bounce back up into the fifties or revisit the thirties once more...more likely the latter. If you are looking for a quick profit with this share most people will be disappointed...but if you are long term -- a nice little earner!!

The £17.00 an hour certainly did not come from me, beatrootjuice. And as for the other rates I mention...they are regarding Angard agency workers - not posties.

You are quite correct about Rico Back's statement concerning automation; and yes, automated letter sorting machines, controlled by a huge array of powerful computers, have been installed at mail centres for quite a while. The trouble is, the computers that control them require careful and skilled maintenance by high-tech engineers...it is not unusual to see them not operating from time to time due to a myriad of reasons. Also, do not think that hand sorting of letters and small packets no longer takes place...Royal Mails sorting is still, in the main, done in this old fashioned way. At one time computerized letter sorting machines could only process typed addressed envelops; not sure if the ability to process hand written addressed envelopes is widely available as of yet...although it was talked about when I previously worked in a Royal Mail mail sorting centre. As for your assumption that investing in parcel sorting machines by the Royal Mail is to help protect revenue...then... no. In that, Derek, you are totally wrong. The Royal Mail has its own revenue protection team for that. It is just the plain fact that to handle the sheer volume, for what is expected to be a huge year on year growth in the sales of online goods, of tracked mail in the very near future the only way to do it is by machine. The Royal Mail already has new parcel sorting machines in place...but still requires many more. To scan the massive upsurge in the growth of tracked mail order returns and tracked outgoing parcels is just to much and far too costly to be done by a team of people, however motivated, using hand held scanners. It has to be automated. To sum up: the Royal Mail needs to mutate...and mutate quickly -- or, like the dinosaur -- it will become extinct!!!

Ah ha! Finally...some common ground established. I have been trying for the last couple of days to induce some lively, grown-up debate concerning the Royal Mail...looks like you might have an open and inquiring mind, Mike. Firstly - as to my credentials. I have worked extensively for Angard over the last 7 years at various sites throughout England (due to my former nomadic lifestyle): south west area, London, and in the northwest region. Several months ago I began working for Amazon full-time so, obviously, no longer work for Angard...but this does give me a dual insight into both businesses. Believe me, you can trust my assertion of Angards pay rates; you should be able to verify this yourself by visiting their website and looking at any of the latest job vacancies in the different regions. As for my absence figures, quite simply they were relayed to me via a postie whilst working at a Royal Mail depot one night; the posties have, once a week, what is known as "work-time" learning: a half hour period where they are informed of matters of health and safety, company policy, matters of concern, etc, etc.Trust me: I have no interest in "shorting" the sp...I own quite a few shares myself. Changing the subject somewhat. Allow me to highlight an important difference in the approach of both the Royal Mail and Amazon. Every other night, whilst working for Amazon, I see somebody sacked. There are many reasons for this but the main reason being a reluctance to work to an acceptable level. If you are scanning products at an Amazon depot your scanner relays all information to a screen which is monitored by a supervisor. If your figures fall below an acceptable level your scanning is flagged up and comes to the attention of the supervisor...you will be politely informed of this and encouraged to work more enthusiastically. Amazingly, after several warnings even, people still manage to get themselves sacked. And the Royal Mail? I have seen posties draped over their work whilst complaining of being picked upon, being depressed, feeling exhausted (?!), or just too worried about a personal problem to concentrate on work. And does the manager chastise them for not performing ? Not a bit of it! He is more likely to recommend they ring the Royal Mail's support service ("Feeling-first-class) and pour their heart out to one of the support team than give the postie a polite reminder he is there to work. And therein lies the huge problem: other employers politely insist that you work productively -- the Royal Mail hopes you will!!

mike1974: "Wildly inaccurate" (?). Okay...if you wish, Mike. You, the public at large, and, I suspect, many analysts and financial institutions might not be fully aware of the massive problems connected with absence and sick leave within the Royal Mail workforce. Not only does this impact efficiency, and therefore productivity, but it also drives labor costs up considerably. I am not suggesting for one minute that for every postie on sick leave there is a replacement agency worker..but, obviously, at some point, it does increase the need to partially cover duties that need a minimum amount of persons...ie: scanning mail order returns or the cross docking operations (unloading and re-loading of the lorries). And bear this in mind: Angard (the Royal Mail's temporary workers agency) pays extremely high wages, (compliments of the CWU's insistence); an Angard worker (on the night shift), having completed their minimum 12 weeks, earns (if memory serves correctly) about £13.00 an hour; after 12 months the pay rises to about £14.50 an hour...I think it might even be slightly more. Don't just take my word for it...go to Angard's homepage...you might then just understand a little more than you might actually care to admit. I am not, despite what people on here obviously think, trying to manipulate the share price down -- far from it, I am just stating how it is. The Royal Mail's "Network" is awesome! It is second to none. However, the means of processing the mail are, as one person here said - "Archaic"! Rico Back understands this better than anyone. In his own words (not a direct quote) : Our competitors are 90% automated...we (Royal Mail) are 10% automated. You work it out, Mike...it really is as simple as this.

PNE79, You make some very valid points; and you are quite right -- there is a lot of natural wastage! However, one of the biggest problems is not at the tip of the iceberg...the small point that you, the general public, see protruding above water (the red vans, red postboxes, and red clad posties delivering your mail) but at the massive unseen base that lies hidden and out of sight. Just to highlight one point you mentioned: "obsessing over brew times and an employee being ill will not get this company back where it should be". Really? I can assure you that, in this, you are completely wrong. The national average among UK companies for sickness absence is 5% -- the Royal Mail's is 10%!!! I personally know of one postie who has been on sick leave for six months (on full pay!!), and three others, whom, in the past two years, could not contribute more than three working years between them!!! And if you or anybody else thinks this is just bullsh*t...then think again -- it is commonplace!!!

Damn!!! Undone....again. :) You are all just too clever for me, Redceo...obviously you all know far more about the Royal Mail than I. And all those hedge fund investors also.