RE: Near future (TK and Clevegen)???20 Nov 2020 17:20
Pot , I do see where you are coming from , regarding the future of Traumakine .
We have shown our hand on Traumakine - it failed once , not twice , and after some explaining and negotiating with FDA , it still has a shot , but agreed , it's been compromised by the discovery about steroids . If it was proven to be a worthless therapy though , Faron should have binned it and gone 100% onto Clevegen . But they still saw it as a viable treatment ( like you say if administered correctly ) . THE FDA don't usually allow further phase 3 trials for a failed drug unless there is a good reason . The further research and patent regarding the polymorphism aspect , and also the patent for monitoring the treatment will give any further trial much more clarity . Then you have the trial being run absolutely in conjunction with our old nemesis , steroids . Partners were being lined up for Calibre , and you would expect the same for Hibiscus . The WHO debacle is scientifically a non event , despite it wrecking the SP for us , so any partner they had lined up should still be on talking terms . The downside of the steroids should be outweighed greatly by the potential windfall any partner will reap if Faron run a successful P3 trial . The fact that drugs are being bought in bulk by Govts and given FDA approval even when they don't seem to work , really does mean the bar is set pretty low for what is seen as a success . I don't recall seeing a budget for the trial , but its going to be funded by a third party I guess , as Markku has stated many times . The soft loans were for Traumakine manufacture and freeze dried techincal stuff . Why use the money for that if you didn't have any means of paying for the trial to get you there ? That's the way I see it . He must have something lined up , otherwise its all back to front .
Clevegen - again - its been very quiet - budget is there too see them through Q1 , and some left for further collaborations with cancer IO etc , but yes , its cards on the table time soon . I think we will see one or two cohort top line results , and I see some being better than others ( due to the quality of patients they have been able to enroll) . The possible partnering scenarios should be alot healthier here , and again , Markku seems very buoyant about this . We can only put our faith in him that things are going to work out . He is keen to avoid unnecessary dilution . Yes , we've had 2 or 3 placings , but its enabled us to keep 100% ownership , and hence the windfall on a success will be the maximum .
I think he's played it well to get us this far with so little dilution , considering Clevegen is a real cash burner .
Would I put my house on the SP being £25 by 2020 Q2 . No
But I've got a fair wedge on it being a good side better than £2.75 .
Worse case scenario - Clevegen results poor - SP drops and they have to do another £1.90 placing . But I just can't see it . Markku is pretty confident that Shareholder value is coming .