RE: Why the start of the drop? π€·19 Feb 2025 11:09
Gerry557, you said: "So if you have bought shares at 264p why would you sell them for less days later. I can see instant profit currently in selling the rights issue shares but to get them you have more originals that will suffer even more. So any instant profit will be offset from paper losses in the others. That doesn't make much sense."
Completely agree any seller would have to accept losses on their original shares. However, many trading will see opportunity with selling a proportion of their holdings for ~450p and then simply buying them back again as SP inevitably drops (because others will do the same and because the underwriters are yet to unload their ~7% of RI shares onto the market).
Probability wise the odds are staked against the SP rising - as they're stacked significantly towards it falling... so many will make their move in a manner to take advantage of this. It's common post RI too, so many will be well aware of that.
Also must be caveated that on an open market, anything can happen of course. I don't know with 100% certainty, as there's so many factors it's impossibly to know for certain what will happen. I am just merely saying that the probability is currently tilted in favour of a significant sell off and drop to the SP.
All IMO of course - DYOR.