Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

They won the contract, clear from the RNS. However, what was clear is the £100k loss attached to voluntarily liquidating that Ltd subsidiary (see documents on companies house filed on that link I shared below, there is a financial hit there - obviously small fry now considering the contract win announced today).

Interesting seeing Gas Safe contract win there given CPI currently voluntarily liquidating the LTD subsidiary handling that contract...

CAPITA GAS REGISTRATION AND ANCILLARY SERVICES - link here: https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/05078781/insolvency

Be interesting to know if the new contract is better/worse financially for CPI... has the margin gone up in line with their ambitions? Or did the have to drop/trim those ambitions to secure the contract again in the tendering process?

Insights on this would be helpful to assess if CPI's strategy is working or not? 🤷 - I don't know the answers here but maybe some know where to look to get the data on this?

On face value... looks like some positive news (for once) for CPI in fairness here👍

SP cheap for a reason though 🙄

Be lucky to hold on to £4.90p from the look of late trading yesterday and early trading today ⬇️

UK Property Prices likely to stall & have a small correction - could be the trigger for lower leisure demand IMO:

https://propertyindustryeye.com/agents-forecast-of-property-market-correction-following-stamp-duty-deadline/

First article I've spotted which agrees with my forecast of there being a property price market correction on the horizon and possibly already in early flight:

https://propertyindustryeye.com/agents-forecast-of-property-market-correction-following-stamp-duty-deadline/

Zero chance of the BoE cutting rates in Feb IMO. As only once the stamp duty tax break draws to a close will the market will need a supportive rate cut i.e. my prediction is BoE will go for the first 2025 cut at either the March 20th MPC or at the May 8th meeting; probably the May meet so they have a good handle on any reaction to budgetary changes first.

Meaning many businesses like CPI won't stand to benefit from lower borrowing rates for a long while yet!

JO - In the last TU Capita said:

"Increased employers’ National Insurance Contributions to have an annual cost of c.£20m with cost savings expected to mitigate these costs over the medium-term"

Whereas Revenue is expected to decline by high single %... So if Revenue declines by 9% (the worst high single % figure) this would be a decline of ~£253million in revenue.... i.e. maximum £20m hit from higher NIC's for CPI is relatively small fry; at least when compared to Capita's far bigger problem being it's lack of competitiveness and the apparent aversion of the sales department to carry out it's sole purpose for it's existence (i.e. to get on with job and sell stuff).

64.7p please

Morgan Stanley just cut UK growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.3% - the third agency to make this view public!

Primetime51 "Well that was a Cr@ p end to the week"

Well... I did warn thee 🤷

JO quoting Daily Heil as if it's a legitimate source...

LOL 😂😂😂 -

JO - Definitely not the job of BoE to "help 'ease the pain' of the Labour budget"... Unfortunately, the budget is painful due to many years of Tory mis-management which left Labour with few options but to raise taxation and bring in additional income. That's something ppl just have to accept - i.e. that voters chose the Tories in several elections and that decision had consequences the masses must now pay for.

On the subject of BoE rates... Bailey previously advocated (via allowing an MPC member to repeatedly brief the press) that the BoE needed to 'Purge Inflation' - Given all inflation measures remain above the target I still see BoE as holding the rate on 6th Feb...

Especially so as the Stamp Duty tax relief is still available to homebuyers (until 31st March), I think BoE won't want homebuyers & the many due to re-mortgage this year (lots needing to re-mortgage this year have been on 5yr deals at 2-3%) benefitting from a rate cut... on the contrary the BoE should want those homeowners to feel a significant hike to their rate (to tame inflation in the mid-term).

After the Stamp Duty tax relief ends... I think it'll be a different matter - hence why I see them holding for Feb and then cutting later on.

JO - I've not sat on the fence.

I've said my personal view is UK is in recession but... I've said the data available (currently) does not prove that to be the case; and may (once published) end up showing UK escaped the technical definition of a recession by a hairbreadth.

I propose that even if the data were to show UK escaped the technical definition that there could be subsequent revisions to the data months after which change that... plus I remain confident even if technical recession is avoided then for many it will have still felt like a recession because of the real terms reduction in GDP per capita (when adjusted for inflation).

I prefer this site:

https://www.dividendmax.com/united-kingdom/london-stock-exchange/mobile-telecommunications/vodafone-group-plc/dividends

JO you've selectively quoted me. What I said was this:

"It may well be the case UK escapes technical definition of recession but may witness a prolonged period of falling GDP per capita nonetheless."

My personal view is: "We're likely already in recession" (here I was referring to technical definition of recession) but... there is not yet enough data to know if this is the case or not... yes, indicators point towards this being the case but nobody can yet know (until ONS release the next batches of GDP data).

JO "I work at a senior level in a bank in the UK and have been involved quite heavily of late with regards to investment and finance of..."

AKA a 'paid to invest other people's money ramper'

JO - It's a subjective question... If you subscribe to the technical recession definition then you'll need more data before you can determine the full answer; up until Oct 2024 the UK was not in a technical recession, for period Nov, Dec and into Jan there's not enough data yet to know.

Personally I prefer to define recession as any time period during which there is a decline in GDP per capita because I think this better reflects the impact of a nations citizens becoming net poorer. For me and using my preferred interpretation of the impact on citizens, there has been a decline in GDP per capita already (as population has risen and GDP stagnant, meaning the same/similar money is shared out among a greater number of citizens - for me, this is a better definition of a period of time the nation has been in recession).

JO aware of the technical definition of a recession. However, there's much debate about how valid that definition is, as it doesn't factor in population changes... which has a significant impact on calculating GDP per capita.

It may well be the case UK escapes technical definition of recession but may witness a prolonged period of falling GDP per capita nonetheless.

Still a country mile away from £1 a share innit