Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Culley01 - Tax cuts will definitely not be coming - 100% pie in the sky, she shouldn't have said this. Unless Reeves has managed to pull off bagging some surprise mega investment/trade deals/major asset fire sales - to allow fiscal room for tax cuts; which is very highly unlikely.

News outlets tend only to report the headline on GDP once first estimate is released... rarely do they look thoroughly at the actual ONS reports and publish articles about the revised figures. However, it's those revisions where the data truly shows what is going on. The figures are damning for the prior Tory regime so you won't find them published in the Daily Heil or the Torygraph as they're too obsessed with the simple narratives like 'Two Tier Keir' for their submissive readership...

UK however is in a right royal mess -thanks to Tory failure to grow the economy - Reeves cannot turn the 'oil tanker' speedily... it'll take time before momentum for growth builds up pace, and so in the meantime she's very limited options;

Either more borrowing (I doubt the markets will like that option), spending cuts (to cover the financial shortfalls) or Tax rises (to bring in more income and therefore cover shortfalls). As you all know well from experience with CPI there is one more option for Gov... that's state asset fire sales (much less discussed by the media, and is not in a dissimilar way to how CPI sold off Capita One)...

Https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/november2024#data-on-monthly-gdp

Within Section 6 named 'Revisions to GDP'

"This release gives data for November 2024 for the first time and October 2024 is open for revision, taking on late and updated source data since our last publication on 13 December 2024.

January 2023 to September 2024 have also been revised in line with our Quarterly national accounts published on 23 December 2024."

States the following within the table:

2024 GDP

Jan = 0.0

Feb = -0.1

Mar = 0.0

Apr = 0.0

May = 0.0

June = -0.1

July = -0.1

Aug = 0.0

Sept = 0.0

Oct = 0.0

No growth for such a long period of time, when considering population growth over that very time, is equivalent to recession because there's the same/similar GDP to go around more people.

It's why the Tories called the GE for early July... they knew they'd be handing over the mess to Labour. A mess they had no ability to fix.

Draws nearer?... We're likely already in recession

I don't reckon Qube have wholly closed their short... probably lying just below the reporting threshold. Still expecting this to dip below 13p IMO.

Crossley - As I explained... Look at the date the buybacks commenced on and then look at what has happened to the SP since. Then consider the context I gave in my post which was "buybacks which are helping the SP over there and causing many to buy into it speculatively atm" - I'm not disagreeing with your calculations (I have not checked the figs you're claiming but I don't feel I need to either because my case in point centres on the speculation, which was triggered by the buyback announcement and it's starting date). Hope that helps further to explain my POV?

Why gobsmacked?... IAG has large daily share buybacks which are helping the SP over there and causing many to buy into it speculatively atm.

Avocet123 - Why would I be worried about VOD when my average there is 67p and VOD is currently sitting at 68p - Look just because you're sitting on a loss with your VOD investment... as a new entrant to VOD I don't have the same problem as you have.

"This share by all intents and purposes is undervalued"

Your opinion, and by all means you completely entitled to it. However... I don't think this is manipulation at all, and those consistently calling out any downward moves as being a conspiracy to cheat them tend to look a tad delusional. The market is always correct (unless you subscribe to the Liz Truss school of economics?).

This stock had ~450mil shares in issue pre-covid... and has ~753mil in issue today... Yes EZJ has healthy cashflow and is performing decently but... is heavily diluted and many macroeconomic risks lie ahead in 2025 plus much needed money for new aircraft too. It's current market SP is fair IMO.

TalkinboutWillis - I don't need to 'come back and remind' you because:

Those over speculating said this would easily hit £6 on todays results... I explained why I thought it would not... and yet today it's been 490p, and is still falling towards market COP...

By all means... get angry and throw the toys out the Cot if you so wish...

I'm just stating my opinion that I see the SP as likely sitting around the £4.50 mark i.e. £3.3bn market cap. Yes, it's clear there's no cause for alarm for EZJ, there's no signs of any sort of crises in the making but neither is it performing stellar either, it's just my view that it's not going to perform as high as some speculators have been advocating and if that makes me some kind of outspoken person to ridicule then I'm content for those who think that to say so...

However, such vitriol won't alter my view as based on these results and the macroeconomic UK/EU situation currently... that's where I think the range I think the SP will gravitate repeatedly towards during 2025.

All IMO - DYOR.

DrMaze - I don't agree because today in 2025 EZJ needs to be spending far more on fleet replacement, staff and many other input costs... plus is being exposed to greater global risks - i.e. on all of these points when comparing against pre-covid trading landscape; they look to be costing the business permanently elevated sums, which has been passed on/reflected in ticket pricing... except for 2025 I just don't think demand looks as though it's going to continue the trend of soaring upwards going forwards in quite the same way.... as households are not yet tangibly net better off, some belt tightening will be done by those who've been in full tilt YOLO mode since post covid. The fiscal caution by many will likely be a limiter on demand in 2025 IMO.

I just think it's going to take longer than anticipated for the kind of recovery many speculators had banked upon to materialise, and clearly there's other investors who appear to think the same (hence no uplift of SP on these results).

DrMaze - and therein lies the problem... You've said it yourself below "we are perfectly on track to achieve full year profits that would bring our EPS in line with pre-COVID".

Now some speculative investors expected this to soar because they were banking on EZJ doing much better than Pre-Covid (as that's what's required for EZJ to achieve stellar SP prices; due to much watering down as many more shares in circulation plus myriad of airliner risks; bad weather systems (climate change) in peak holz season, strikes for wage increases if inflation remains high, UK recession & house price falls, interest rates not falling fast enough, reignition of ME conflicts & ongoing Russia/Ukraine, impacts of Trump on UK/EU)...

What is clear today is speculators over ramped this, and some overexposed are exiting/trimming... Q2 unlikely to prove plain sailing.

I don't think the SP recovery will be substantial in 2025 IMO and I think SP will remain volatile with 440-450p range being the median throughout 2025. Some homes will cut back spending this year as those accumulated energy, mortgage, fiscal drag etc can no longer be ignored by those with a YOLO attitude.

Recovery will come in 2026-2029 IMO.

Fairly resilient results on this RNS, despite that baked in macroeconomic damage for UK - courtesy of previous Tory Government...

2025 will still see challenging conditions ahead so I don't expect any rally for this stock. Still anticipating a long drawn out period of 570-590p here...

These results needed to have been better IMO. As I previously said on here... it's been my view there's far too many shares in circulation and there's not a strong enough or fast enough recovery for this to soar yet...

UK most likely in recession atm, interest rates unlikely to come down imminently IMO (due to falling £ and elevated/stubborn inflation)...

Much time still lies ahead for recovery. The positive bit in the results is clearly EZJ is stealing lunch and market share for holidays from others and how that develops is definitely where the hope resides...

I'm unsurprised this is dropping this morning.

Appointed by KamiKwasi in 2022... Labour just sacked him 👌

Https://news.sky.com/story/digital-driving-licences-to-be-introduced-this-year-13293541

Excellent development IMO - Much easier to have digital driving licences etc all via GOV.UK Wallet

Cost savings for taxpayers should be massive - decent decision by Labour Gov

Gertfrobe - It's simply the one which was updated today.

HHH81: BoE has two objectives:

1. Monetary stability (in which underneath the 'Maintaining monetary stability' heading it clearly states: "We set monetary policy to achieve the Government’s target of keeping inflation at 2%"). i.e. achieving the 2% target is the goal (therefore primary objective) and is the way in which monetary stability is measured.

2. Financial stability - Given no current imminently clear threat on this front; little more needs saying here.

"Maintaining monetary stability

Our monetary policy objective is to maintain price stability in the UK. Subject to that, we support the Government’s economic policy, including its objectives on growth and employment.

We set monetary policy to achieve the Government’s target of keeping inflation at 2%. Our Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides what policy action we should take to reach that target."

Directly taken from BoE, link here: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/bank-of-england-market-operations-guide/our-objectives#:~:text=Overview,statutory%20responsibility%20for%20this%20work.