Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

HHH81 - 14yrs of Tory rule were the cause of the UK's many social problems today - these stats show the sheer damage:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/04/how-14-years-of-tory-rule-have-changed-britain-in-charts

Reform with so many former Tories would be just the same but with a different colour and branding.

HHH81 - Utter nonsense - Tories opened the doors through the following measures:

1. Boris Johnson liberalized certain legal migration routes, particularly for non-EU citizens, leading to a surge in migration post-Brexit and the pandemic.

2. Tories opened the Graduate Visa, allowing international students to remain in the UK for two years after graduation (or three for PhDs), significantly increased migration as a pathway for skilled workers.

3. Tories created massive Asylum backlog by failing to process the applications! - just look at the surge under their rule! (a little further down the page see Figure 1: Number of cases and people awaiting an initial decision, as at 31 December 2014 to as at 31 December 2024) Link here: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2024/how-many-cases-are-in-the-uk-asylum-system--2

The above have nothing to do with the 1951 Refugee Act or the ECHR either!

HHH81 - Many (perhaps including yourself) repeatedly voted for the Tories to let those numbers in; it was always so obvious the Tory party never wanted to follow any proper sensible process. First came the caps from the Osbourne/Cameron gov... they smashed through those... then came the May & later Boris era through which they carried on regardless... DisasterTruss, beaten by a lettuce - laughable! Then Rishi's repeated nonsense on 'Stop the boats'... underneath it all sat many Tories who are now defecting to Reform to continue the very same!

Conversely, Labour now picking up the utter mess left for them... properly& sensibly following due processes and the rules/laws which already exist, and which are sufficient to ensure a good balance of the levels of migration which the UK needs. Yes, it will take Labour time to work through the backlog but... the only reason this ever got out of control was because of Tory (and many of those are now moving to Reform) incompetence. Both Tories and Reform cannot be trusted.

Cut off the Migration and then TerryM1 won't have anyone to clear up the mess he makes in his pants in his care home - but maybe that's what him and others want?!

TerryM1 - migration has become a national obsession... Tories were of course 100% wrong to £700million of taxpayer cash to Rwanda for absolutely nothing, not to mention they wasted £22million on the Bibby Stockholm barge and lots more on failing to do the basic thing of processing asylum applications. Good thing is Labour is gradually restoring balance & common sense - the UK needs some migration but it cannot be an open doors free for all. Many Reform members are former Tories, who've changed their colours and logo to cling on to offices of power... Reform will bleat on about migration, just as the Tories did so but they'll also do nothing about migration except whip up nonsense rhetoric while simultaneously leaving the doors open again. The only real issue was the total breakdown of normal process which Labour are now restoring.

TerryM1... soon you'll be rocking in your care home chair relying on NHS and medical care staff i.e. you'll be reliant on migrant workers to clean you up & wipe up your many ranting dribbles!

I still think there's greater downside inflation risks and BoE has not cut fast enough or far enough IMO! I expect Bailey (who looks like he's lost weight?) and MPC will need to play catch up later on this year. Irrespective of India & USA trade deals I still think UK has rocky times ahead. The deals will no doubt help but... are 'small fry'. I think inflation may hit a point where it undershoots the 2% target some time over next 6-12months. BoE forecasts look to be overestimating upside inflation risks to me.

FTSE got a bit too excited earlier today, rising quite a lot for some stocks this morning.

Jamtart1 said: "Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, cash is reality. So true."

Which is complete and utter nonsense because Revenue, Profits and Debt are all equally as important but are very dependant on the wider context in hand. Few truly successful businesses traded on the stock market remain eternally in a state of annual profit because if they do then they can be outcompeted by others who are willing to take on debts to supercharge periods of rapid growth. All are important measures, revenues are critically important. Profits can be used to create a false sense of security sometimes too - they can mask huge problems and lead some investors to think the business is a great investment - it's why you sometimes see a business book huge profits, only to quickly go under just a year or so later on! I'd argue it's actually data on profits which are more often misleading for the majority of investors; by far they are the indicator which catches investors out from time to time.

Nonsense - many successful businesses frequently enter time periods through which they forgo profits, in order to take on chunky debts for investing into driving forwards their big growth plans.

Many firms do this very successfully indeed, and they later on down down the line easily service those debts they've taken on from the massive growth in revenues they later on net into the coffers, plus they can enter a profitable stage where they can reward those who loyally stuck by those debt for investment plans.

The whole capitalist model is built on debts, paying them off and netting the bounty... Yet many on here frequently peddle ideologically debt purist nonsense!

Labour again delivering on their pledge to grow UK economy👌 - proving sound competence is far superior to the right wingers populist nonsense built on worthless slogans!

Good for the FTSE though no doubt it'll take time for the positives to filter through for stocks by way of improved forward financial results.

Friedrich Merz failed in securing sufficient votes to be German chancellor in the first vote. This could have a knock on for the DAX in Frankfurt, perhaps... with potential downside for businesses with German market presence too. Combined with Trump spouting more tariff nonsense I think VOD could be in for a rough trading week ahead here. IMO - DYOR.

68.2p - I think Trump will be causing some further mayhem this week ahead!

USA jobless benefits claims make an unexpected rise of 18,000 to 241k - Looking increasingly as though USA economy is getting the sniffles! Which can cause the rest of the world to catch a cold...

Travesties - EZJ relies on high volumes and more recently has benefitted from being able to charge healthy ticket prices.

Falling oil prices don't help EZJ IMO - customers will expect lower ticket prices and customers will shy away from booking if tickets remain pricey as they'll take comfort from the inevitability of falling prices.

Mole_man99 - I partially agree with you...

Most UK citizens blissfully unawares of the sheer economic Armageddon coming their way. 14yrs of the Tories have bankrupted majority of Councils, central Government is continually struggling to balance the books- thanks to Tory economic vandalism. Not to mention most public services are in very decayed state, barely coping. Cumulative negative impacts of Brexit on trade with our biggest and neighbouring market, the EU, is significantly restrictive- and therefore has locked UK into a perpetual state of stagnation...

Meanwhile most householders have kept on spending with a 'YOLO' attitude, via rolling over their massive mortgage debts into longer term lengths & shared ownership schemes, also through 0% Credit Cards. Yes, a few with foresight have pivoted to max their ISA's/savings, as they have seen the dangers which lie ahead but... they are not immune to fallout and face the very real prospect of BoE plunging interest rates & allowing inflation to return, which will resume erosion of the spending power of their cash in hand i.e. to bail out their neighbouring citizens who've been overspending and would face mass bankruptcy if rates were to be held.

It's a bit of a sorry mess and currently I agree UK is on an economic path to doom. However, Trump/Farage are not the answer. The solution lies in a; growth, growth growth strategy which currently Starmer is strongest (but still not ideal) on.

Ouch! 750pt drop for the Dow Jones and the session has only been open 30mins...

The usual Trump denial train rolls onwards.

IMO this will drag the FTSE indices downwards too.

"We just need Capita to do her stuff now! ;)"

It appears to be cratering - 12p down since the open yesterday.

Curious to understand the magnitude of the losses which some on here are no doubt sat upon? - and yet still the denial continues unabated. It's most interesting to observe.

JG68 - Interesting opinion you've shared there. Previously I'd thought CPI had hit the floor and without further results insights could have even rallied to ~15p, on speculation.

If CPI does indeed drop as low as you think it could, then that's surely going to be punishing for LTH's?

FWIW - my current estimation on FY2025 revenues is £1.86bn - I think the cost cutting is going to cost more than envisaged, and I think any asset sales the board might plan on making in 2025 could well end up netting them far less cash raised than they may have previously considered. I also do not see sales volumes improving from the downwards trend they're currently on because demand is likely still falling and current strategy is just not at all focused on making new sales atm (that was evident in the FY 2024 results which saw punishingly low sales). The strategy centred on margins is IMO delivering way more pain here for CPI, the wrong approach and at the wrong time too. All IMO - DYOR

Wowsers... even I had expected some sort of short term post consolidation rally for the SP here, as I was presuming AH and the board had done this knowing a big institutional investor had expressed some kind of informal interest... For this to sink from 192p down to 180p so rapidly looks worrisome IMO.

Yes, the board have Teed up the Share Premium Account Reduction (voted on at the AGM) to go through the courts in a couple of months time. Action which presumably will support the SP... However, currently looking as though much destruction to the market cap is being done here all the meanwhile.

So glad I steered well clear of this stock!

DYOR

Trenners - "Just a bit more patience required" - For some LTH's I imagine they may have been patient for ~4-7yrs? - For how much longer do you reckon those LTH's should expect to patiently wait?

Looking like bad figs being released over the pond. USA likely to enter recession and therefore to drag the rest of the world down with it!

GDP shrank 0.3% in Jan-March.

Robleo - "this is just a personal opinions board, take some responsibility for your own **** ups and stop trying to blame others" - 100% agree with you there.